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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Market Thought... sell the news

The good economic data continued today, but as Bernanke was speaking we got the classic 'sell-the-news'.  IMO, Bernanke is getting less dovish, and has recognized the better economic data. He continued to say the Fed will commit to low rates until 2014, but Bernanke was always pretty clear (prior to today) in that the 2014 timeline can and will change if need be.  The market gave its opinion fairly clearly as the treasury yield rose as soon as he started to speak. (I would have thought the GDP number would have been enough to cause it to rise, but the yield really started to spike as he talked.)

Even though the market saw a sell-the-news day, fundamentally, I feel more confident in the market.  Technically, the yield trajectory is to break the interim negativity, and develop a new base above 2.1%.

IMO, at current market levels, the market sentiment maybe dictated by the job figure. If Pimco and El Erian are correct, and jobs are a leading indicator, as jobs improve so will incomes, confidence and other key economic figures. (Oh, in case anyone missed it, bank lending saw the largest increase since 2007 last month.)

Technically, the market is a bit interesting here.  The other day we got indications that the market was going to continue its push higher, today seeds of doubt. (That is the sick humor of Mr Market.)

It is still very overbought, and seeing how much emphasis the jobs number should now get, the claims number may dictate where the market goes.

Any pull back should be shallow. I do not expect 1330 to be breached, unless economic data turns crappy, which would justify a more severe pull back given current market multiple.

(We are also going to see Chinese PMI tonight, that also may set a market tone.)

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