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Monday, April 25, 2016

$aapl post-report trading dynamic

The probabilities.

Downside: low 90s

Via the charts and continued low-end multiple. 

The upside: 120-130, if the market decides to remove the lowend multiple.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Charts - $bac

With the 10yr yield, junk bonds (jnk) and oil rising, so did bac with the rest of the sector. 

BAC approaching tangible book and monthly resistance. (Given the above macro conditions, trading below book value is just market being very stupid.)

Monday, April 18, 2016

Charts - $aapl

Some support at current level. More near 105-106. Heavy support in the mid 90s.

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Charts - $bac

A move to 15 seems likely.

A move between 16-17 would be logical given the increase in tangible book value.

But of course, this would mean the 10yr yield correlation breaks or the yield rises and bac follows.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Market Thought... Now vs 1yr ago

The market is flat.

Oil and gasoline were alot higher. (But as supply reduces, prices should start approaching last year prices.)

Although oil is alot lower compared to last year, junk bonds have recovered. 

A lot of global bonds have turned negative. Those pressures appear to be pushing the 10yr yield as well. Although surprisingly, the yield was near current levels a year ago. (Yet bac was at 15 a year ago.)

The lack of credit spreads should cause bank profit pressures. The firming of oil prices should mitigate default risks, and as oil rises the majors that cut cap ex should see the profit benefit.  

Economic points of concern: the volume of transported goods. 2016 is still a lower year for rail frieght traffic.

While the BDI has recovered from early year lows, its still lower compared to a year ago.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

$bac and the ten year

If the bac / tnx yield correlation means anything, bac may be testing 12 again.

BAC should not be below 15-16, yet the pattern exists.

How I plan on playing it: as bac approaches 12, will go heavy in the money options, while also playing long dated out of money options.