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Friday, April 30, 2010

damned if u do, damned if u don't

The Government is hell bent on humbling Goldman, and all financial players should take note. There is only one Master of the Universe, and that's Uncle Sam.

My target remains: the daily 500SMA is my entry point.

I do not think much will come from this. There maybe discovery of some individuals with wrong doing, but I seriously doubt the SEC or DOJ will find a firm wide systemic issue promoting fraud or improper trading.

In the mean time, any action a bank does can be considered improper. Whether they manage risk properly or allow themselves to fail.

What annoys the hell out of me is that no failed bank or CEO got anywhere near a similar beating as the Goldman folks got.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

SP500 chart, reply

My market thesis has not changed, and I am still looking for stocks to churn here. The market looks to be debating between #1 or #2 still.

I fail to see the head and shoulder on the SP500. To me, the recent high did not break from the 1210 market. Despite hitting 1220s, the action there was weak so I do not consider it significant.

Right now, to me, it is at the upper end of its channel.

But the real resistance is indicated from the weekly chart via the 320SMA (first) then the 200SMA.

I just do not know the catalyst that will break it from this major resistance just yet. The SP500 can glide upward due to valuation, but I am just not ready to count out a churn or correction yet. On that note though, charts of key stocks look really nice still, CSCO and AAPL being two of them, which adds internal support to the market and supports a potential churn vs. correction.

Congrats DNDN!

I noticed the Provenge approval earlier in the day, but did not have time to post.

Congratulation Dendreon. I hope you execute well in manufacturing to help as many prostate cancer victims as possible.

(I only wish the people that suppressed it years ago would go testify on congress and get the grilling Goldman got the other day. After all, the people that suppressed Provenge facilitated in taking lives.)

Kudos to the long journey, patience and determination.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Market Thought... bailout?

Within the Kudlow Report, it was indicated there maybe an $800B package in the works to cover the PIGS. (video) I have no idea whether or not this is true, but if it is, the markets will rally hard.

All the risks will remain, and inflationary pressures will ensue if the above is true. (Only reason why TBT is down is due to the PIGS, but TBT will bounce as this threat eases even if the ease is short lived.)

I think entering on declines is the best strategy right now. If we do not get this bail out, the markets may go lower, and I will keep entering as we go lower. If we get this package, I will be positioned as we rally. (For instance, I have been entering Citi on staged declines. I have one more chunk to purchase, but am waiting for a certain level.)

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Market Thought... a wrench

My previous market thought (confirmation) has not changed. Looks like #2 is playing out instead of #1. But days like today really put a wrench in a short-term market thesis. :)

The Vix saw a dramatic rise, especially the last 20min of trading. It currently lies on resistance, which may facilitate a market bounce and should indicate a correction's bottom.

This could be the end, but I can not rule out every scenario. We may see a healthy SP500 correction to the 62 SMA (around 1150). This could translate into a VIX inversion with the SP500. This inversion indicating a true market correction bottom. (Although the size of today's Vix move would indicate such a correction's bottom, hence the wrench.)

I made no secret that I started to purchase names. At the same time, I have dry powder to go in heavy at the 62 SMA (which approximately translates to the 14SMA on the weekly.)

covered protection

With the P in PIGS getting downgraded, the market is hick-upping and so I covered the protection.

Some other actions:

1. Picked up more Citi shares, and will add more if it declines more.

2. Picked up more F with this decline.

Itching to buy some AAPL calls too, but am waiting.

Monday, April 26, 2010

The GS target

Sucks to be Goldman right now, obviously. The management must unload this deep, thick cloud of uncertainty if they ever want their stock to appreciate. I do not know if that will happen anytime soon, but there are clear signs to where it can potentially go. (despite its valuation, uncertainty always makes a stock go down)

I do not believe the analyst who suggest GS going to book value or 100. IMO, that completely negates their worst case scenario earnings ability, and as paid analysts, is irresponsible.

A chart that I did not think I would use, needs to be seen. IMO, this is where GS is heading, then I will buy 140 Jan 2011 calls.

This is a 5 year 500SMA daily chart of GS. Look how beautifully it acts as resistance and support throughout the years.

Looks like we are approaching a time when it will act as support.

As it potentially gets to the 142-143 level, there is support around 150 and 147, so it may bounce around first. But if the negativity keeps coming, I am expecting GS to see the 5oo SMA.

The Facebook web... i really hope not

A ton of chatter last week, and carrying over to this week, regarding the F8 and Facebook's attempt to dominate the web. Every technocrat, and I think their mother, gave their more-qualified-opinion.

Basically, the Web-2.0-luminaries are overwhelmingly bullish on Facebook, and they believe Google maintains its current role, but is the target.

Regardless of reality, at the moment, this mass perception will cause multiple contraction within GOOG. (Talking valuation, why bother being in GOOG w/the above threat when an investor can be in AAPL for similar valuations, and maybe even better prospects.)

So a continued decline in GOOG should be expected, and now its a matter of how much multiple contraction will take place.

Right now, the charts show some solid support around 520s. (Bouncing off the 525 level, and the weekly 50 sma at 515.) These levels maybe good for a trade, but after the bounce, I am not convinced the contraction will be over. (I have to keep an eye on the 'facebook-perception' to get a better sense of where the multiple is going.)

NOTE: I hate facebook, as a user. I simply hate it. I use it primarily as a communication tool. Its platforms are extremely buggy, especially its mobile app (which is how I primarily use it), and lacking. I would never allow the company, or any other one for that matter, to gain such a strangle hold of me and my identifiable information.

Worst part is, GOOG gave the concept some what credibility when it distributed Google Buzz. And look how that turned out. People want privacy for certain things, and not for others. IMO, this paradox prevents the 'social web' from being more than just a glorified niche.

I understand the power of the social-web as a sharing mechanism, but to push it to be more, I fail to see.

Regardless, for the function of this blog, the only thing I truly understand is the psychology the market will have in light of the new development. I will leave the technological theories to the 'web 2.0 luminaries'.

i do not understand... Citi

Why would the Treasury announce their intent to sell 1.5B share (of their 7.7M shares) today?

I do not understand it. They already told investors there is a planned program to sell the shares. All investors need to know now is when they are done selling. Also, I don't buy it. I witnessed the tick-by-tick, and there is some transactions going on in the past two weeks. (With +1B shares trading, some had to have been the gov. shares.)

The only reason I can think of for announcing the amount sold is for investors to know, (creating more certainty) allowing the stock to trade at a higher range for their selling.

Don't get me wrong, the decline fits into my Citi thesis beautifully. The trading range may have to be elevated, pending on market strength. So I purchased shares today. If Citi goes to my original range I will add heavily.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Market Thought... confirmation

Friday's close was confirmation of what I was seeing intraday. The SP500 started to breach major resistance.

Next week could provide a breach, and a few scenarios can play out:

1. We breach upward, then consolidate around the weekly SMAs (the 200 and 320). After the consolidation we continue to march upward.

2. We reach the 200SMA, then the SP500 corrects to around 1150 or so. After the correction, the market can continue to march upward.

The fundamental story here can potentially support both, but I want to lean toward #1 (despite me taking on some protection on Friday afternoon). Here is why:

First, the market is not overvalued. With earnings as strong as they are, this is simply not the case. Even AAPL is not as bad as one would think. Growing earnings at +25%, with a trailing PE of 23 or so, is very reasonable. (Don't even get me started with other names like IBM, F etc.)

Second, the economic story is very much intact. The jobs numbers will prove it. (If anyone wants a forecast of jobs growth look at the chart of MWW, and the job index they provide. Its very telling.)

Third, potential avenues of uncertainty or 'black swans' are diminishing, along with their potential effects. There are a few that will cause things to hick-up, but we are at a wait-and-see thesis...

1. The Euro mess: From Greece to the rest of the PIGS. IMO, the real threat here is social unrest, and an overthrow of the current governments causing a shock to global trade. But the situation is not at that level yet.

2. Higher Interest Rates: At best this will be a short-term short to markets. Higher economic growth goes hand-in-hand with higher interest rates. And the players know this. The Fed keeps their language, but I would not be surprised to see market teasers like we got earlier this year with the Fed window rate hike. So that the market eases into this expectation.

3. SEC sues everyone: Think GS' fight will cause a subdued reaction to others being sued, but none the less, it may have an affect considering how much GS sold off (and is still off) on the news.

Updated 042610 - forgot to mention a 4th uncertainty: China's bursting of the real-estate market. This should have an effect on basic materials, but their stimulus package is geared toward infrastructure build. Outside the scope of residential. So this may mitigate some risk there. But this is a real threat none-the-less.

The market needs a healthy consolidation, its just a matter of how it consolidates.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Market Thought... reluctant protection

I took on some reluctant protection today. When I look at certain internals (i.e. individual names) I just do not want to short the market. They are not over extended. In fact they are ripe for a purchase, while others are clearly over bought.

Regardless, we are retesting the resistance, so I decided to protect again. (keep in mind I have been day-trading the protection. Which means I covered during the intraday lows of the previous declines.)

I do see many pockets of strength and reasons not to protect. So the protection is due to discipline, not overwhelming technical/fundamental conditions.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Market Thought... da bears?

The man, or team behind the man has been calling the macro economic trends quite well, gave some very revealing information. I encourage all to read the article. Pay attention to what he is saying.

V shaped recovery, employment growth, better than expected.

There have been other articles, referencing his conference calls, indicating he is expecting certain housing to appreciate in 8 to 11% in 2011.

John Paulson's opinion matters to me because he has the pulse of where things were, and where things are.

I still think the market is in need for a consolidation, and should get it sooner-rather-than-later, but the above opinion only confirms bullish views.

Also, despite my view on the market consolidation, I am not hesitating to purchase oversold names. For instance, IBM or PBR or TBT.

NOTE: Interesting action in the treasuries today. Thanks to this RBS report that the treasury's budge shortfall will be far less than expected, and cause a overflow of funds. This allowed the rates to fall today. But that is today. Higher rates go hand-and-hand with higher rates. Market rates will be higher by year end. If the economy recovers as optimistically as Paulson suggests, and housing appreciates as much as he indicates, rates must go higher sooner than anticipated.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Market Thought... arrogant mofo

Apparently I'm an arrogant mofo, or so I was told today. I recognize there is some truth to my 'projection of some arrogance' when conveying information that I grasp very well, but I make a conscious effort not to be arrogant (as arrogance goes hand-in-hand w/ stupidity).

Until I can trade full time, I just gotz to roll with the punches of corporate America... awesome. (they have treated me well, so I can't complain)

Confidence is a whole other story. That, I got plenty of. But, more importantly, I know when I am not confident in something. (and here is the transition) Am I confident the market will go down? nope. Not after Apple's quarter. (Talk about a bitch slap to the bears!)

The troubling aspect of the market is that the Vix is retesting its lows, and the SP500 is retesting the weekly resistance. The set-up got me cautious enough to take on some protection before the market close.

Apple's earnings should provide a nice catalyst upward, but I do not think enough to break through the resistance just yet. At the same time, I do see a scenario for a sector rotation to take place, primarily in the energy names. I would like to add to the protection as the market opens, but I have jury duty tomorrow so I may not get the chance to trade.

Basically the market can continue to trend water here until the rotation trade is completed. From there, another analysis will be needed.

phony vs real company

A phony company can not consistently answer hard questions. A real company can.

Enron, Worldcom and the like, all eventually collapsed because at a certain point too many questions could not be answered. The hard, consistent questions companies must answer are their down fall. The phony ones implode, the real ones just answer the questions.

Goldman keeps answering. No company involved in fraud would be able to withstand such scrutiny from sooooo many sources if their was actual fraud going on.

The fact that Goldman is still so strong while the scrutiny continues truly speaks to its strength and realness.

The critics must realize reality... eventually.

Monday, April 19, 2010

A word on IBM

There is really nothing to be said. It's business is kicking ass and taking names, but the street can obviously give a shit.

Basically here is the breakdown...

As a trader: IBM has traded with the trailing PE of around 12 for the last few quarters. Meaning buy the dips, and sell when the trailing PE entered the 13 area.

To me this trader thesis is bullshit, but a point of fact none-the-less.

The fundie story:

1. IBM continues to beat, and increase guidance.
2. From the 4rth quarter to the first quarter, IBM has now swallowed two better than expected quarters and the stock has not moved since announcing the numbers. (this is a severed case of consolidation)
3. If IBM maintains the current guidance of 'at least' 11.20, smack a 12 PE, the year end price will be 134. (this is an absolute conservative price)

What I know:

IBM has been guiding higher quarter after quarter, and the 2010 earnings will be higher than 11.20. (Something like 11.50) It typically trades with a trailing PE of mid 12 to low 13, which leads to a conservative price tag of 150 by the end of the year.

Oh, and lets not forget, during the second half of the year the street usually prices stocks on 2011 earnings.

So yes, I am a buyer as others are selling.

Saturday, April 17, 2010


Now that earnings are out of the way for GOOG, I am going to look to start trading it again. Earnings were really good, and if anyone thinks otherwise, re-read the release. GOOG broke-out as indicated, and I hope profits were taken prior to earnings.

Now that the momentum players are at bay, and the 1st quarter earnings are reflected in the number, GOOG is relatively inexpensive here. I am looking to get in around 545 via the Sept 550 calls.

If it breaks this level, 520 is a very solid support, but realistically I do not see it approaching 520 again.

A look - PBR

There is some conflict when looking at PBR at the moment. The charts and oil market fundamentals may not be lining up.

The charts are indicating one of two things: 1. a buying opportunity or 2. the start of a negative trend.

The daily showcases the potential negative trend via the DMI, despite seeing support at current levels.

Then there is the weekly chart, which clearly shows PBR tracking the downward slope of the SMAs.

But that is a purely technical perspective. On the flip side, driving season is coming up, on the heals of a recovering economy and labor force. Macro economic conditions suggest crude to rise or at least hold steady in the 80s.

Unless there is some negative backdrop I am not seeing, or the China deal they just announce was really bad news instead of good news, I viewed this set up as a buying opportunity.

(I purchased at the daily 50SMA, and plan on doubling down if 37-40 is seen.)

A word on GS

There is some really good commentary on the Goldman situation on Cramer and Fast Money presented some solid arguments to put this situation in perspective. (Seeing how these characters are the insiders, I would pay attention.)

The one theme I agree on is that this will add fuel to the fire to get financial reform completed. Combine the public anger with the potential republicans that will break rank and vote for reform, it will happen.

I am a fan of reform, but smart reform. I am of the belief big banks can exist so long as their units are isolated, and each trading operation has its own sufficient capital requirements. (If AIG's derivative subsidiary had a large capital requirement they would not have been allowed to sell so much bullshit paper, and the risk to the system would have been contained. That concept should be applied across the board.)

IMO, the plays to get into from the weakness here are Citi, MF or other smaller players that will build out their new business with the new rules in place. Versus JPM, BAC or GS that will have to increase capital requirements or shrink their current business'.

I still think JPM, BAC or GS are good names, but the financial reform adds uncertainty to their current biz. And anytime uncertainty is present, stocks get discounted. Although the lower GS goes, the more attractive it becomes.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Used the weakness

More weakness than I expected due to the Goldman news. I used today's weakness to:

1. cover my market protection

2. get into MF

I have limit orders in to add to my Ford position at 13.40, and will most likely re-enter the protection next week or so.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

trading Citi

This past few weeks Citi was looking better and better each day. (good thing I called the break out :) And with each passing day I was waiting to see where the top-end range would be.

The amount of shares the gov. has to sell is too much to sustain a rally within C. Supply and demand will win, and the price will be capped. Today I believe indicated the cap.

No question the stock is in a hugely bullish scenario, but it is very overbought. There is some solid resistance here, and with the supply coming on line, it may channel trade until the selling is completed.

(With trading volume in the billion, the selling should end sooner-rather-than-later.)

IMO, purely based on the activity that I see, I think MS has the green light to sell Citi north of 4.4 , which should cap the stock around 5.

Here is how I will trade it: As C approaches 4.5 I will buy it. If it goes lower than 4.5, I will buy it heavily. As city approaches 5, I will sell it. (Easy enough :)

I would like to maintain a core position when I anticipate the gov. selling has stopped, but we are probably a few months away.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Market Thought - protecting

The weekly chart of the SP500 shows the market is very near the 320SMA, which typically acts as resistance.

At the moment I am a bull for many reasons, especially with great earnings coming in. I fully expect the names I am currently in to move higher. But the market is near a level that merits some caution, for the short term.

If there is a slight pull back, I will cover the protection I recently purchased, (the 124 May SPY puts) and re-enter them after the earnings season.

At the moment, protection seems like a good idea. But, instead of a big decline, there could be churn at these levels. Moving out of some hot places, and into laggers maintaining relative support for the market. (at least until earning stop coming in)

Intel pushed hard

Cramer was pushing Intel hard today, and I can't blame him. The sector/economic winds are at its back, and I do not doubt the potential move. So I reviewed its charts in more detail. A review of the daily chart is quite clearly overbought, and in the presence of a very powerful up move, which typically make me nervous for an initial position. But the review of the monthly long-term chart of INTC calmed me down a bit from Cramer's huge endorsement.



The monthly shows a resistance.

After a relative consolidation, INTC should charge upward. So if anyone is interested in INTC, I would wait for a consolidation in the daily. And once 25 is breached upward, hold on for the ride.

But, if anyone wants to ride a stock right now, a look at IBM's long-term chart strongly suggests its ready to make new ground.

Market Thought - some protection

A quick thought...

I bought some protection here. With seven straight up weeks, I just had to do it. Will post a more detailed post later in the day.

This protection I plan on day-trading. (Not necessarily waiting for a big correction here just yet.)

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Trade - PBR

PBR seems interesting, and consolidated here. If the price of Oil holds here, I think PBR can move to 46-47. (Although w/the price of oil around 80-85, the weekly chart of PBR suggests PBR can move to 50.)

Monday, April 12, 2010

Getting ready for Ford

I am itching to go heavy into Ford. I already own some around here, for the Timeless Portfolio, but I want to enter a trading position. Currently F is consolidated, but I am getting mixed signals. There looks to be support around the current levels, yet I see hints of weakness that suggests F may see between 11.60 to 12.10.

If F starts to break from current support, I will start to go heavy.

I may enter a light initial trading position here (on top of what I already have).


Whoever asked about SSW (can't tell due to anonymous function of the comment), but if you held it for the break out, congratulations.

(Kept an eye on it since I indicated it most likely would break out due to the triangular consolidation that was taking place. Wanted to make sure I was right or wrong.)

Trades - TBT, GOOG

GOOG - Interesting set ups we got going. Market looks overbought, and the VIX is at lows but we have a potential scenario where GOOG is about to break out. At least temporarily. The break out could add support to the market. At the moment I am still hurt from the nasty GOOG option trade in Q1, hence do not have the balls to play GOOG just yet. (None-the-less it deserved to be pointed out.)

TBT - if rates are going up, TBT is the play. Its consolidated, and the temporary EU/IMF 40billion support for Greece may facilitate the rise in market rates. Its consolidated, and I purchased it here.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

A Trader's Dirty Look

A few weeks ago I came across the news that a self-publishing service called was coming to the iPad. (article)

I figured it would be an interesting means of monetizing detailed information that goes beyond the function of the blog. With this blog I convey the conclusions of extensive thought and research via relatively short and concise posts, highlighting the technical analysis and a few key fundamental points.

The blog posts will keep coming, but in addition, I will look to begin publishing the deep fundamental analysis I conduct via Smashwords. Since that aspect of my homework is at the heart of what I do, I believe that should be monetized, assuming anyone is interested. There is no cost to me, other then organizing the work, so I figure I will begin to make it available.

To test out the concept, I created (what I thought to be) an interesting ebook called A Trader's Dirty Look. Basically it highlights my thought processes for conducting a quick-and-dirty fundamental assessment specifically for trading. It showcases the ratios I use and where I get my information (links included).

Keep in mind, this is not a foray to transform the anonymous 'echotoall' name into a stock guru or market educator brand. I make cash from trading. That is my love, and that will not change. (If learning is a consequence of reading my information so be it. Everyone learns when reading a perspective they may not have thought of.) I write this blog because I have no one to discuss potential trades at the activity level I perform them. The blog helps me solidify my conclusions. The use of Smashwords will simply be a mechanism of monetizing the Deep Analysis, assuming people are interested in it. Nothing more.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Market Thought... taxes

Baby did I have to pay. Got my tax bill today, and mailed out the checks. 2009 was a pricey year...

When I look at individual names, there are clear indicator that the market is overbought, along with the charts of the markets themselves. But there are names that are not overbought, and earnings around the corner. The SP500 maybe able to push or sustain current levels, if reaction to the quarterly reports are good.

A very good summary of why investors should like this market is linked here. (Despite the fact that I have seen Mark Perry twist data to fit an agenda, it is hard to argue with the numbers in this video. Especially when the charts of the transports confirm what is being stated.)

Also, there will be job growth acceleration, and I think the general market direction is up.

The biggest negative is the situation in Europe, and that is also what may keep market rates low. That is why the 10yr yield, and TBT went down, after breaking out last week. The situation with the Euro is very bleak, and there will be a flight to safety capping market rates (in the US), making the US economy/markets look pretty freaking impressive for global investors.

Needless to say I am bullish, but am anticipating a market consolidation after earnings. Will look to short the SPY around 1215, or so, with June SPY Puts. (the strike price will most likely be the 124 or 125)

Thursday, April 8, 2010

A thought on Greece

Greece needs to change, but no-one is strong enough change it. From the top down it is riddled with problems...

1. The leadership wreaks of corruption and half-hearted attempts to right the (gross) wrongs. With out a clamp down on corruption and implementing the proper tax policies, to the wealthy that already avoid paying taxes, Greece is going no where fast.

2. The people must break from the entitled state mentality.

But #2 will not happen unless #1 takes place. And #1 is simply not taking place, and very difficult to prove. This problem can be solved in a lot of different ways, but if the Euro is going to be saved I only see few things happening.

1. The EU and IMF bailout Greece. If Greece is bailed out via the IMF, a very real civil unrest can take place due to the tough resolutions. The Greek citizens will not accept the tough, and needed, terms with out seeing the wealthy pay their share. Strike after strike will take place, further reducing the economic situation. The downward spiral may cause Greece to leave the Euro or force the hand of the EU to kick them out of it.

2. The EU kicks Greece out of the Euro. (Greece does not walk away. Instead Brussels says 'due to their complete negligence, Greece has been suspended from the Euro Zone.)

The first two situations has the Euro saved, if the EU leadership handles it correctly. But if the EU leadership lets Greece simply walk away from the Euro, a domino effect may take place, and others walk away. Destroying the experiment.

3. Brussels begins to print money. Devaluing the Euro for the sake of Greece, and the other PIGS.

The above scenarios may be utter crap. But the one certainty I do know is this:

Europe has a fear of inflation, as it led to the rise of Hitler. Unfortunately for Europe, a persistent civil unrest can also give rise to a ruthless leader. Europe needs a sustainable solution, and all the probable solutions point to a much lower Euro. (I am talking at par to the Dollar.)

Short the FXE

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Market Thought... quick thought

Just a quick heads up...

IMO, this maybe the mini consolidation the market needs to propel up to the 1220 level after earnings. This type of mini pull back is needed to have the next push up. Then the major consolidation. (i.e. 'Sell in May, and go away' maybe in play this year.)

Walking a fine line

Big mistake on this Comcast ruling. (Rule in favor of Comcast to purposely slow down Internet traffic.)

I do not know the specific ruling, but the courts are walking a fine line toward preventing Internet innovation.

I hope this ruling is specific to sites that are peer-to-peer, known for illegal downloads, and will not be used as precedent for allowing general traffic to be slowed at the whims the telco or cable company.

For instance, now that Comcast owns NBC, I hope they simply do not decide to slow down the Internet speeds of all their competitors like YouTube, Yahoo etc. (Remember they own and iVillage.) To me that is just wrong.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Sugar, its in the name

For whatever reason, I have an urge to buy the crap out of SGG right now. I do not know why. (Maybe its because my last name is tied into the commodity. I like to think my great great grand-father was a peasant sugar farmer, and was given the last name :)

But seriously, discipline prevents me. There is simply not as much information around Sugar then there is Crude or Nat. Gas, for investors outside of larger commodity desks to get a very clear assessment.

From what I gather, sugar will still see a deficit, which should provide a floor. If I were on a big-boy trading desk, I have probably purchased the factory input information from the sugar-cane processing plant to assess the increase of supply. But all I have at the moment are my charts and the Internet.

I still own SGG, and I do not plan on selling it just yet. However, there is no dressing up this pig. The only positive aspect of Sugar right now is the severity of its oversold condition.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Market Thought... re-visiting

My Market Thought has not changed, especially after seeing the private sector jobs number today. The SP500 looks to want to move towards the weekly 200/320SMAs, which is around 1220, or so previous SP500 patterns suggest, before the next major consolidation.

I could always be wrong, and the market react negatively on Monday due to the jobs number, but that is in contradiction to the futures/treasury markets.