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Sunday, November 30, 2014

Charts $baba

Test time for baba. The largest shopping day has past, and Christmas isn't Christmas in China, for retail. The next prime retail days are Chinese New Years, and that's on Feb 19, 2015. 

If there was a time for baba consolidation, it's now. Or it uses the above, obvious, supports to continue its March higher. 

If the stock chooses consolidation, a retest of $100-105 is very real possibility. 

Cu and financing in China

Earlier this year there was a Quartz article highlighting the importance of copper in China. Used as a collateral tool for financing. 

Not sure how pervasive this financing is to present, but copper is at multi year lows. 

Friday, November 28, 2014

Charts $xom

Declining oil prices helped take down the Soviet Union. Putin modeled the leadership structure under the system that depends on oil prices. The test is in.

The U.S. Shale and new producers will get a kick in the nuts. It sucks but the body can handle it.

In the mean time, opportunity. Depending on the negative chatter, 85-87 is a possibility w XOM.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

$googl outflows to $fb $yhoo $twtr ?

With the EU breakup chatter, the strength in other ad related stocks is telling. May be portfolio realignments happening.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Charts $fb $aapl

Dear FB, stop fighting it. Go to your weekly 38 sma, to where you belong. (At least for a spell. Just do it. DO IT. Moves like today don't support my selfish needs!)

Last time aapl broke out of its mega-trend, the stock retraced the declined from the trendline as much as it appreciated. (Valuations be damned!) Shall we expect the same? Sure, why not. (Although at the trend line, the Apple gets really juicy.)

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Charts $baba

Bounced off the weekly 5 sma as stated, with the most solid of justification 'just because'!

The daily looks interesting. Despite the run, its now deeply oversold. Assuming negative bias creeps into the picture, oversold can get worse with a new sentiment entering the mix.

Assuming the positive bias remains intact, the last four days is the place to be.

110.73 looks tempting, but I like to split hairs. The intra day suggests now is a nice buy, but hair splitting says low110 - to - high 109.

Friday, November 21, 2014

Quality of $spy move sucks

The markets rally big because of a move that will sustain current growth trajectory (at best) in China and a reiteration of asset purchases by the ECB (that was originally revealed weeks ago.

Intra day, may chill near 2055.

But looking for a more serious decline toward 2000-2020.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

$amzn wants to breakout

But will it? 

Daily is testing its holding pattern

If this breaks, its to the 220sma.

When that breaks, its going to 350-360.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Charts $ibm $baba $bac

IBM approaching its low end channel. If it can bounce here, it will look bullish for a bottoming. 

The 5sma looks like a good entry, just because.

Set up seems the 9sma is the support, but I'm secretly hoping for a move towards the 28sma

Friday, November 14, 2014

Charts $fb $bac $ibm $twtr $xom $yhoo

FB should see a nice bounce off the 38sma.

The 9 or 20 sma retrace? Either way, bac will test 18 soon.

What a shitty chart. IBM looks capped at high 164, and supported by 160.

Channel looks to be 44 to the 39s. (Sold some in the am, but bought 1/2 back in the PM. And as a side note, the S&P is still a worthless organization that gives worthless opinions, literally.)

With oil and nat gas declining, the weakness should allow the stock to see the 20sma again.

Waiting for YHOO to approach its 10sma.

Friday, November 7, 2014

$baba @ $280billion

A company that will complete about $12-15B in revenue next year is now worth $280Billion.

I am a fan of Alibaba, and a believer in the world of mobile there will be trillion dollar companies. And baba should be one of them, eventually. 

Straight up action scares me.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

$amzn what if spending eased

In 2010 Amazon's revenue growth seemingly shifts higher. 

Income from Operations grew in a consistent fashion until the end of 2010. In 2011, Amazon embarked on a spending journey, directly attributed to additional fulfillment centers and 'technology'.

But an interesting development took place toward the end of 2011. Gross Margins started to rise.

Quarter-on-quarter there have been a distinct improvement.

The reason is probably due to a multi faceted approch of third party resellers, AWS ('other' revenues) and Prime memberships. 

The one that is the most interesting revenue stream is Prime memberships. A recent analysis suggested that 50 million Amazon costumers are Prime members. If that is true, that's an additional $4-5B a year high margin revenue.

What if Amazon ignored the future prospects of a Hardware-as-part of the platform or did not care about the logistics side of its business. (Let's ignore the fact that revenue growth may not be where it is today from the spending. What if spending eased?

(The blue line assumes a continuation of income trajectory. The green line assumes income growth in relation to revenue growth. The grey line attempts incorporate the increased Gross Margins.)

Monday, November 3, 2014

charts $aapl $amzn $fb $twtr $xom $yhoo

Looking for a consolidation of the very overbought condition.

Looking for a break of the negative trend or a retest of 295. (Adding at 295.)

Looking for a test of the 38sma, for a bounce. Still think fb has entered a multi-year consolidation phase.

At support and oversold. There is a probability of seeing 38-39.

Looking for a retest of 93ish.

Hoping for a sell-the-news event tomorrow via baba, and it takes yhoo towards 42. Still think it showed hints of its effective turn around in the last report. Big fan of the CEO and what she has been doing. Core property and tumblr should be eventually valued near $30-50B.