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Monday, February 27, 2012

Market Thought... a bit frustrating

The market has been pretty frustrating since 1350. (Between 1350-1370 is a bracket of technical resistance for the SP500.)  Every potential pull-back around 1350 has not seen any follow through, none.  Every potential pull back has been met with purchases of one sector or another supporting the market.

For instance, in the AM the market declined fairly hard today, then had a nice turn-around. The names that were acting as strength in the AM (like industrials), were flat in the PM. And then in the PM financials were supporting the market higher.  It was an interesting dynamic, and a frustrating one for me since I was positioning for a shallow pull-back, with some sort of follow through. (Not one that would reverse intraday.)

The frustrating aspect of today was how the treasury yield was not supporting the market's upward push. The treasury yield was acting weak throughout the day, which made me think the market would have pushed back from its intra-day 320SMA. (Ultimately leading to some follow through, on a market pull back.)

But the opposite took place, yields were weak as the market pushed higher, and the set-up has me fairly perplexed.

The market is pushing a trailing multiple of low 14, and if this market is to keep pushing higher (through the upper bracket 1370 resistance), it will be through multiple expansion. In order to get multiple expansion, and provide fuel for a potential market breakout, we need to see a sell-off in treasuries.  Obviously we are not seeing this.

I do not think all names need to pull back here, as some names have not seen multiple expansion or are relatively consolidated (ie DIS, ATI, SLB etc).  But there are other names that have seen multiple expansion, and are very over bought (ie AAPL, QCOM, IBM, JPM, CAT, ETN, etc). This mix is why I believe the overall market pullback will be shallow, but shallow with some sort of healthy follow through.

At the moment I fail to understand the market dynamic, but one day does not make a trend.  I am still expecting a shallow market pull-back.

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