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Friday, March 28, 2014

$msft $goog no longer confused, maybe

The two companies are no longer confused as to their strategy. Both appear to have decidedly shifted to horizontal companies. Providing their software on all devices. 

The maybe...

Despite Google selling off Motorola and Microsoft's new CEO declare the horizontal strategy yesterday, Google still has Nexus and Nest. Microsoft still has Nokia. So confusion between horizontal vs vertically integrated will undoubtedly reappear. 

All the while, Apple is firmly vertically integrated, will hints to expose some of their services to the android ecosystem. 

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

$aapl $fb $goog spending spree

Largest purchases...

fb => $19b whatsapp (and now $2b on Oculus)

goog => $12b on Motorola (and recently $3b on Nest)

aapl => $50b on themselves ($36b in 2013 and recently $14b in 2014)

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

$ibm teasing a positive tone

Breaking from its negativity.

Not so good news developing from India does not appear to matter. Or maybe the market cares more about the cost cutting that will result? Or maybe the Watson initiative and cloud services are starting to hit there stride?

$aapl pushing

Apple looks to break from its interim negative. May push to 560.

Monday, March 24, 2014

$goog rolling over

Looks to drive to 1130.

Pending effects of their services being challenged from Apple? Or the market reversion to trading multiples? 

Saturday, March 22, 2014

$aapl $ebay

AAPL - funky last min trading on Friday. Turns out that Billboard provided the chatter of itunes to be on android. If a whisper of confirmation from Cook's 2013 interview suggesting they will do Android Apps when it makes sense to do so, can cause the stock to rally so bluntly, the stock may break 540 (see below post) without a new product launch. (Will be interesting to see how this plays out.)

EBAY - already broke out. If ebay starts to trade at its high-end trailing PE (28), the stock can push to 65. (And higher, if the PE remains elevated throughout the year.

Friday, March 21, 2014

$aapl - marking time

The Pros:

1. Since the Q1 report, there have been higher lows on pullbacks.

2. Sine the end of Feb, the stock has been tightly trading around the SMAs and trend lines.

3. Not overbought (but not oversold either)

The Cons:

1. The stock is seeing resistance from the negative trend lines.

2. Media chatter expectations is to usher in the era of wearables, like they did with the iPod, iPhone and iPad. (Although the stock is still excessively discounted to industry peers despite it consumer brand strength and being a leader in mobile.)

Fundamentally, there is plenty more to write, ie Revenue growth has slowed, so it may justify a low multiple. Although margins have stabilized and increasing, which would justify higher multiple. Management no shy to buyback BILLIONS, near the $500 mark. etc. etc. etc. 

Potential plays:

1. The stock will move toward 540 into a product event announcement.

2. A catalyst (downgrade or negative article) can push the stock to breach the 38sma, and can test 518. (This should correspond with a pretty oversold position that would merit a long entry.)

3. A pig flies, positive sentiment takes the stock, maybe from the realization of the above out-of-wack discount, and AAPL breaks the negative trend simply to meet the valuation of metrics of MSFT.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Seriously surprised? $spy

Interesting to see the market react to Yellen's comments around the purchasing (prob to end in the fall) and rate hikes (start increases 6 month after, so in 2015).

Anyone paying attention the last two meetings could of figured that out. $10b reduction a month gets you to fall. Then rates rise. 

Sometimes the bigboys and their "surprises" make me laugh.

Although, based on the employment data, I would say she is being dovish by expecting fall to be the end of purchasing. If the fed would go by the unemployment rate, there really should be an end by late spring / early summer. (But she clearly squashed the notion of the unemployment rate as the trigger.) 

$yhoo most underrated mobile play

I remember a time when Facebook was trading below 20, and they had very little to no mobile ad revenue. Now it's a $170B company with 65% of its revenue coming from mobile ads.

The change happens fast. Yahoo is in a similar position. 

Yahoo had over 400m users on mobile (ex tumblr), and started to place ads in their popular mobile apps. 

The change will happen. 

As of today Yahoo's core business is getting no respect. Mostly because the data suggests it. 

Yahoo should be putting up the numbers soon. It's time. The systems (content and Ad management) are in place. 

Friday, March 14, 2014

From Russia, with...

What's the play? The referendum is already destined to pass given the choices on the ballot and an army already occupying the region. There is no "no" option.

The grave consequence will be sanctions. But how harsh can they be? Does the EU have the capability to impose such things when they need Natural Gas?

The referendum will pass, but what will Putin do after? Will he simply withdraw troops, and hand Crimea back to Ukraine? (I mean Crimea was effectively taken over last week.) Will there be a wild card as China already expressed concern over Russian actions. Will China pressure Putin to ease up? Will this allow them to become care takers of that region? Will Putin tolerate it? 

How far is Putin willing to take this? It makes no sense for there to be an all-out-war. But how will Russia tolerate 'harsh' sanctions? How will they handle economic isolation?

Is there a play that will let all parties walk away with their heads up high? The longer this plays out, the more likely the answer is no. 

So many questions, and these uncertainties are reflected in the DAX and global equity markets. 

I'm most curious as to how China chooses to step it up on the geopolitical front. Will they have the balls to stand up to Russia? Or will they change course and support Russia?

I hope we see From Russia, with Love this weekend. But we may see From Russia, with go-fuck-yourself this weekend too. 

China default discount is approaching last year levels $fxi