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Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Market Thought... Happy New Year $spy
Closer to a near term bottom. Looks to be fear of a 2014 hang-over into the new year, buy buy buy ;)
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Sunday, December 28, 2014
$amzn $twtr $bac $xom $ibm longer-term thinking
In the age of mobile, where literally everyone can buy 'whatever' with a push of a virtual button, at any time the nudge takes place, is $143B expensive? The age of mobile is on the verge of producing trillion dollar companies, the answer is no. Spare the violin the tune of no profits. Amazon doesnt have a profit problem, it has a habit of investments. (Just think of all the redeployed cash that went toward productive investment instead of taxes!)
Whatsapp went for $19B. Intagram is valued at $35B by Citi. Yet twtr has a market cap of $23B, and crushing the two in revenue growth. But the three are really not the same. Twitter is so much more providing a realtime sentiment graph, and with twitter fabric, an ad platform.
$45 is a point of resistence given the 20sma, but with a sentiment shift it should see between 50-55. Where resistance is pretty fierce.
Reiterating a thesis a few posts down, higher rate will allow the bank to see more revenue and it should trade toward the higher range of book value. The new trading dynamic should lead bac toward 17.25-20. But a breakout past 20 is likely if US economy keeps performing and Global GDP keeps rising.
Already gave my two-cent in the previous post. From a longer term perspective, the dividend keeps rising, and so long as global gdp keeps rising so will energy demand. Demand forecasts have come down, but there is still demand. Also, as a nat gas arbitrage play, Japan LNG spot price declined and some forecast are expecting the price to fall more in the latter part of 2015. (But so are prices in the US.)
The anti-amazon, of sorts. Lack of proper investments, and too much financial engineering brought the stock to a crappy (yes, a pro term) technical condition. But the strategy has shifted. A scalable cloud solution leveraging their analytics and mobile first mantra. Positioning themselves well for the next few years of enterprise computing.
It also has a nice yield. A true dog-of-the-Dow, hence another risk. If the strategy does not become clear by the 1st half of 2015, ibm runs the risk of being removed from the Dow.
Saturday, December 20, 2014
Chanos has a short thesis XOM. The simple argument: so goes oil, xom will follow. (Given 90% of revenue is tied to oil.) Referencing the 2009 decline.
A 10yr look suggests Chanos is kinda right, at least directionally.
My issue is that the movements aren't well correlated. My bigger issue is any refence to an illiquid-nonfunctioning 2009 market, and apply it to a functioning, liquid market of today. This is the kind of market that appreciates yield, and may prevent exaggerated moves based on short-term market fluctuations of a commodity. We may not see similar patterns from 2009-2011.
Also, in 2009 xom made a $41B play on US natural gas. Their Alaska LNG terminal should be active in 2015, allowing xom to play the great-arbitrage. (Think this is already happening in Papua New Guinea terminal.)
If Russia keeps being assholes, oil will probably keep getting pressured. But if they play ball, global economies will demand more oil, recover (maybe towards 70) quicker and the thesis will be a muted one.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Monday, December 15, 2014
Pushing 6 year highs. Amazing, in a pathetic sort of way. But bac has been good to us, so no complaints here.
If yield spreads were gonna get wider, there would be plenty of confidence in bac breaking the 20 resistance mark. But we are living in a douche-bag world (cough-Putin-cough), where the world has decided to curb it economic growth to basically give him a bitch slap. So global rates are low, but Japan and Chins are still stimulating, and Europe is about to with their Public-Private infrastructure fund. And once Putin plays ball, oil will firm up.
In the mean time, major lawsuits have passed, and book value is within reach. Now, if the financial world doesn't blowup (it won't) after the greek elections on Wed, bac looks really good here.
Getting pretty oversold on the daily. Usually suggest a pop is in the works.
Supporting the thesis, the long-term trend line is around 104-105.
Looking to play the pop, but also expecting some action around the trend line. Worst case, aapl breaches the line, and weakness-as-equivalent-as-strength is seen. Meaning a 14% move below the line. Does this thesis make any fundamental sense? Absolutely not. (Since when do hopeful expectations of a pattern make sense?!?)
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Market Thought... Greece, not oil
The markets are seeing declines with the Vix spiking. In a few days Europe will either be on its current economic path or will have to re-assess how to handle Greece.
"Antonis Samaras, the centre-right prime minister, has called a snap presidential election for December 17th"
With this uncertainty, comes fear and protection. Hence the rise of the Vix. And the fear is at interesting levels.
But Greece itself is at an interesting place. How long can a people endure massive GDP declines, worst in modern times. Unable to start afresh, and forced to experience a slow bleed of dignity and dealing with psychology exhaustion? 6 years not enough? Does the average citizen deserve such lack of dignity?
If Europe loses Greece, the powers that be have themselves to blame. A people can only take so much. Honestly, to the arrogant EU policy makers, a proper "fuck you" maybe in order.
But despite the social affects, the ECB has had the capability, basically unlimited asset purchases, to mitigate the fallout of a Greek exit from the Euro. I just hope those fuckers prepped for this scenario.
In the mean time, market levels are very interesting, and looking for re-entries.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Classic break down from the obvious 160 support.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
China and the EU $baba $yhoo
Thanks to China's continued push to legitimate loans, its market is down 5%. More west, we have those pesky Greek stirring the pot again. (Such trouble makers! ;)
The SP500 looks here, even with a multiple contraction going into Q1, so long as earnings hold up.
In the mean time, baba looks interesting and yhoo too. (Among many other names.)
Friday, December 5, 2014
Graphs $amzn (fundies)
Some of the marriage material in Amazon.
Kick-ass jobs number $spy $bac
Another one of these jobs reports, and the end of QE is solidified. But have no fear QE junkies China, Japan and Europe are there to pick up the Fed's withdrawl.
The SP500 at all time highs with expanded multiple. Makes sense there is some multiple compression as earnings keep chugging along.
The winds look to be on US banks back. Good jobs growth, good US economy and soon-to-be higher U.S rates (if ever so slightly). All for better earnings. BAC may even test its intraday high of 18! Woo-hoo.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Oil $uso: coincidence or causation
July 17, 2014 Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was shot down by Russian supported Ukrainian rebels.
Literally, oil (WTI and Brent) begin the decent.
The conspiracy theory is that the price is being manipulated by the non-existent US central Office of Oil Manipulation and Fuck-off-Putin Department.
The international outcry lead to serious sanctions, bringing global economic consequences. Affecting all but two countries (US and China) on the global stage.
Monday, December 1, 2014
From the whoring side of trading, amzn looks like its breaking toward 360.
The 50 SMA, on the weekly, may act as a hiccup.
The hiccup may take the stock to 336-337.
From the marriage side of trading, holiday e-commerce sales have been doing better than projected, with amzn as a pretty clear winner. (And yes, with some analysis, amzn is marriage material.)
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