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Friday, October 30, 2015
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Miss on future revenue, but that is a mute point. Last quarter they a lower guidance but they beat. User growth is still light. But these are well known.
Solid revenue growth.
New product are popping up quickly, and hopefully we see the product execution translate to user growth. In the mean time, losses narrowed.
The ah sentiment seems much for already known issues, and with a far more up beat (compared to the last call) management. Looking for a higher low, around 26-27, from the intermediate trend.
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
For a seasoned management team, their handling of the street has been shit. The SEC news is kinda blah, but given the negative sentiment, this is just a good excuse to allow the 140 support to break. If the stock does not recover, there is a legitimate risk of it going toward 120. (Thats in large part due to the consistent lowering of guidance. And with the constant lowering of guidance, the recent buy back may not make sense.)
Saturday, October 24, 2015
Interesting position. Daily is overbought. A condition that usually merits a interim sell.
But earnings report is this week, and anything can happen. Longterm trends suggests a move higher, solidifying a breach from negative trading and a new trading dynamic. Or a move towards the highs.
Since this is aapl, and everything is viewed through a negative lens, a penny miss or a 1/2basis point miss on margin expectations could drag the stock down 10%.
AAPL's trailing be is below average, and below SP500. A simple reversion to mean, brings the stock to 140-150.
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Monday, October 19, 2015
14 straight quarters. Pretty annoying when management is a bunch of highly paid suits. (Im just an annoyed supporter.)
Most frustrating is guidence. The perviously highlighted trade was that IBM maintains guidence. That was shot to shit.
Material declines, that shift target prices. With a lack of stabile revenue, low end multiple is still merited.
14.75 x 11.4 = 168
15.75 x 11.4 = 179
Of course with constant declines of these estimates, they are suspect. (More reason for the lower deserved multiple.)
The stock was at the precipice of an interim sentiment shift. But earnings results proved fruitful for the bears.
Still, longterm trend can support higher prices above, while still being its negative trend.
It just needs a reason to be testing its highend range.
Maybe the dividend yield can be enough. Given sentiment, looking to add near 140 or even a flush into the high 130s.
Sunday, October 18, 2015
Thanks to Bill Miller, this puppy has premium. But its caught in a negative trend.
Bouncing off the 20sma and will most likely push back from the 200sma.
A look at the weekly suggest 27ish would be interm bottom. Last time it went below the 50sma on the weekly, it went ~30% below it. At the current 50sma level, this suggest a stock price of around 27.
Monday, October 12, 2015
xom testing a breach of the multi-month negative trend. If the dividend is safe, xom needs to be near high 90s to $100 for the yield to approach its mean trading range.
Friday, October 9, 2015
Not sure if the dooms day predictions will come true, but one thing that is pretty clear: European banks are a fucking mess.
Icahn is preaching about the junk bond market, but we have two very real scenarios where in the last two days EU banks have shown to be swimming naked. Seriously, after 2008, the fact that the ECB allowed for suck bullshit cushions is the real fucked up part. The real tragedy is the endless supply of arrogance in the EU that has allowed it to happen.
I mean, two companies (VW and Glencore) take a hit and now major banks are seeing losses or need to recapitalize.
Markets rallied thanks to the Fed. Pushing the SP500 to interesting levels.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
Twitter is a $50B company pretending to be an $18B company.
Twitter beat last quarter numbers. They should continue to do the same. Despite the "lack of scale" chatter. (I mean 10s of 100s of million of people is not scale enough?!? Maybe not in the world of traditional web based advertising, but in a world of native advertising, the numbers so far say it is.) Hopefully now that Jack is permanent, the message will be just as honest but the tone more uplifting.
Twitter is already doing better than Wall Street gives it credit for. Now it has this new medium, which is totally engrossing and can lead to some crazy-awesome truly native advertising.
Moments looks to be at its beginning. Things will start to really heat up when
1. more publishers are on board
2. Categories can be chosen by user
3. More live / major events presented through the moments categories
4. When Moments become a platform for individual or corporate publishers
So where did the $50B number come from? $50Bis my preference of valuation. But that's a "just because" analysis. (Most of the street valuations can be boiled down to "just because".)
Realistically, I use Facebook as a previous comparison for valuation. (The networks do not compare but the way wall street treats them might.)
Back when FB ipo'd, their advertising was that of a chair. A CHAIR! With zero and limited mobile revenue, and a poor html strategy, after the ipo the street punished the stock.
The market cap went as low as $38B, coming off of solid second market valuations.
Below is the growth associated with that revenue.
What I am trying to show is that when FB was at a $2.5-3B revenue company, its valuation was still in the +$30B range, even when it had below 45% revenue growth.
An argument can be made that twtr belongs in the +$30B range. (Its not $50B yet, but ill take $30B.)