Search This Blog

Monday, June 27, 2016

Trades - $aapl $amzn $bac $ibm $twtr

The collapse in the pound really fucked shit up for multinationals. All will see a hiccup over the next quarter or two. Regardless, there is still value in the names, and approaching technical inflection points. 

aapl - very oversold, and near support. May flush to low90/high80s.

amzn - resilient in this market, but they will take a hit on their revenues. Initial entry between 650-675. Heavy entry between 600-625.

bac - sell it off in pieces and the stock jumps to $16-17. With the bulk of its biz in America, thanks to sentiment in UK and decline in treasury yield, the stock declines. May go to $8, with no basis on the fundamentals. But may be at support when arbitrarily looking at the log chart.

ibm - scale in digital ad biz and health will begin to matter, but OMG the currency hit they will take.

twtr - stickers and fun stuff matter for engagement and new demographic of users. Now that these are rolling out, so will other engagment friendly things like live video filters. I am so bullish on them now. Seriously. This is their fundamental inflection point. TWTR has a dedicated-intellectual core user. They need to expand the demographic. Fun-to-use expands demographic.

Sunday, June 26, 2016

Market Thought... Political Risk causing real economic hiccups

The implications of brexit will already be severe. The currency moves alone will mess with all multi-national revenues. The companies will also not wait from the Leave camp to straighten their shit out. Finance jobs are already leaving, so are auto jobs. The Gov has two years to leave, barring parliment votes against the leave. Because of all the complex issues, and the seemingly lack of preparation (and flat out lies) from the Leave camp, the UK looks to be in for a lost 2-10 years.

The market seems to be punishing the Leave camp, and will continue to do so, especially since a slow down awaits. But the markets are not trading like the EU will disintegrate, and i tend to believe the market on this one. The vix is simply not as high as the past concerns with a disintegrated EU. 

No question the EU has flaws, but it was easer to see a country with out the Euro vote against the EU vs a country that has adopted the Euro. Example: Greece. A country's people suffered the most of all member states, yet they chose to stay.

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Charts - $spy $fb $sq

Market is held hostage to the Brexit polls until the 23rd. 

$fb to 102 or 95?

$sq if it holds it would be nice and bullish. But then again its a Dorsey production. (Im already long, looking to add.)

Friday, June 10, 2016

Market Thought... Negative yield vortex $spy $vix $tnx

SP500 at daily support.

But $tnx broke support.

Vix indicates a move to 18 before market flushes out. (Higher high trend since April.)

Plenty of SP500 support near 2070, and via monthly 2050

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Charts - $bac updated

The 10yr yield correlation slowly breaking with bac having a premium.

Makes sense given the risk to tangible book value has significantly mitigated this quarter. Oil is at 9-12 month highs, and consequently so are Junk bonds.

The expectation is that tangible book remains in tact at 16.20. If tbv continues its 2yr trend, it should increase a bit.

While treasuries are depressed, GDP Now is still elevated at 2.5%. And bac is trading 12% below tbv.

Monday, May 23, 2016

Charts - $amzn support

AMZN may look to find support near 675-680.

This assumes a run of the mill pull back. If it breaks 675, the daily 32 sma should see a nice bounce, given the hugely positive sentiment. 

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Negative $aapl chatter summed up

Some negative chatter has flared up. 

1. Apple's lacking in the AI game.

Maybe true, but AI is a back end application that Apple would never speak to either way. Obvious comparisons to Echo and Google's I/O are relevant but skewed. Apple made recent (2015) acquisitions in AI that seem specific to Siri: VocalIQ for speech and Emotient for emotional understanding. Also, since late 2014, Apple has been boosting its voice research team to help with speech recognition. During this years WWDC we need to see the fruits of the merger and research team. 

Apple has made voice control popular to the masses, and its not asleep at the wheel.

2. Operational structure is not conducive for services

A significant argument has been made by Stratechery (Ben Thompson) regarding this negative. (Om Malik had similar sentiment.) The premise of the sentiment is built around web-site beta-testing ideology. Multiple beta testing via select users to find optimized layouts. Apple was born in the personal computer age, where life cycles were +5yrs. Their culture of careful design and device longevity is very much indicative of this, and probably optimized for their functional operating structure. iTunes became a behemoth despite the lack of web-style beta testing, and it has done so while being consistently criticized. 

A lot of Apple's services success speaks more to the default nature from the iphone. As some services start to go cross-platform, a legitimate case can be made for web-style beta testing. I am not sure why these test can not be built into the functional operational structure, as part of decision data points. 

(My own opinion is that some services should be let loose and become cross-platform, as itune. Open imessage, icloud and payments. But that may very well require operational changes.)

The chatter seems to have manifested into a full blown doom scenarios, as is so often when an influencer writes a timely piece that resonates. (CNBC seems to lach onto the negative articles fromperceived  influencer fan boy/girls.) But taking a step back, looking at the preparation Apple has already done, suggests they are not standing still. We just haven't been made aware of their advancements made. At least until June. 

Saturday, May 14, 2016

$bac charts and thoughts

I keeps harping on bac only cause of the ridiculous nature of its valuation. Its currently trading 14-15% below tangible book!

No secret the driver are rates. The 10yr is low and the world is a wash with negative rates. The correlation is pretty fierce.

Even though the above relationship reigns, key negatives are not really negatives anymore. While bankruptcies in oil and gas have continued, oil and junk bonds have recovered.

The prices are back to oct 2015 prices. At this time, bac was consistently near mid 15 and as high as low 17! This may explain why the bac has a premium in the bac/tnx correlation.

The move in oil does have me questioning if the 10yr is trading efficiently. (Real world me doesn't mind as I'm shopping for a mortgage. Trader me is like wtf to my bac trade.)

Adding to the inefficiency theory is the GDP Now the last two prints. Currently projected to be 2.8% (up from 2.2%).

If the GDP forecast proves accurate, treasuries will rise, despite the negative rate trend. If treasuries rise, so will bac. 

Monday, May 9, 2016

Monday, April 25, 2016

$aapl post-report trading dynamic

The probabilities.

Downside: low 90s

Via the charts and continued low-end multiple. 

The upside: 120-130, if the market decides to remove the lowend multiple.

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Charts - $bac

With the 10yr yield, junk bonds (jnk) and oil rising, so did bac with the rest of the sector. 

BAC approaching tangible book and monthly resistance. (Given the above macro conditions, trading below book value is just market being very stupid.)

Monday, April 18, 2016

Charts - $aapl

Some support at current level. More near 105-106. Heavy support in the mid 90s.

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Charts - $bac

A move to 15 seems likely.

A move between 16-17 would be logical given the increase in tangible book value.

But of course, this would mean the 10yr yield correlation breaks or the yield rises and bac follows.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Market Thought... Now vs 1yr ago

The market is flat.

Oil and gasoline were alot higher. (But as supply reduces, prices should start approaching last year prices.)

Although oil is alot lower compared to last year, junk bonds have recovered. 

A lot of global bonds have turned negative. Those pressures appear to be pushing the 10yr yield as well. Although surprisingly, the yield was near current levels a year ago. (Yet bac was at 15 a year ago.)

The lack of credit spreads should cause bank profit pressures. The firming of oil prices should mitigate default risks, and as oil rises the majors that cut cap ex should see the profit benefit.  

Economic points of concern: the volume of transported goods. 2016 is still a lower year for rail frieght traffic.

While the BDI has recovered from early year lows, its still lower compared to a year ago.