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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

some thoughts... SLB, TBT, JPM

Below are a few interesting set ups...

SLB - The large commodity-to-equity disconnect will have me double down on SLB if it approaches 76-77.  (The position I enter near 77, I will unload at the upper trend-line resistance. The rest of the position I will maintain until the disconnect is removed.)

TBT - At a strong support. Barring poor economic data points rates should start to rise.

JPM - Ideally, around 37 is a nice entry point. But with a book value near the mid 40s, and consistent earnings coming about (as Dimon indicated today), even at current levels its attractive.  The stock is kinda overbought, but it is as resilient as the rest of the market.  

If by some miracle the ruling on Thursday or Friday is that Greek CDS' have to be paid due to a Greek 'default', and US banks fall, I will be entering JPM heavily. Outside of this scenario, its upward trajectory should continue until the book value disconnect is removed or multiple expansion due to the street's realization of healthy normalized earnings.  Both of which will result in higher prices from current levels. 

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