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Thursday, April 30, 2015

$twtr review

Lossing 29% in a day and a half pretty much says it all with respect to perception. But let's look at the numbers anyway. 

Revenue had a different growth characteristic from pervious March quarters. Usually flat to Q4, but this go around it was a noticeable decline. (The guidance adds to the change in characteristic via is a revenue growth deceleration.)

Year over year increase was great at 74%, but still a deceleration. (Albeit a respectable deceleration.)

Margin characteristics were slightly better then last quarter, which is what we want to see.

Management tried to justify it but the excuses fell on deaf ears. And rightfully so. 

If the current leadership does not know how to utilize the real-time information property, and awesome interest graph, there are others that can.

There is so much that can be done. Twitter partnering with apps to act as a protocol and data sharing. Better discovery within Periscope. Better local Twitter trend discovery. More partnering across properties for the passive user. Or produce an app that is specifically designed for the passive user, that just wants to observe the trends and what the influencers are tweeting. (Have the option to engage in the conversation. Use it as a gate way.)

More needs to be done, and this quarter showed managements lack of execution. If they can not execute, they need to do right with the property and let others who are more capable for this stage of the company. 

Chart $xom

The report proves xom's flexibility. From a yield perspective the stock should be trading near 95-97. 

From a technical perspective, the stock should see 92 before resistance.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Charts $aapl $twtr

aapl had a great report yesterday, and frankly was hoping for sell-the-news. But the numbers were too good. The stock really shouldnot be declining. Here are supports and potential entry points: now, 127 area, and heavy support at 120-122.

Twtr symbol should be changed to WTF! I have never seen a stock with such +|- 20% moves after reports. Frustration aside, as potential momentum to the upside simply needed confirmation. Instead,  the stock seems to have hit a support i thought it would never see again.

Chart $trxc

(Do some due diligence on the fundies before trading this one)

The stock seems to be on the verge of a break of a multi month consolidation of its secondary offering. 

As it approaches its filing submission, there will be about 180 days of potentially positive speculation. Upon approval, looking for the company to be a $1-2B market cap company. As their manufacturing and marketing develop over the next 5 years, a reasonable estimate (albeit conservative) is for trxc to be a $5-10B company.

Already have a position. Looking for a heavier position near 3.20.

Monday, April 27, 2015

Graphs $aapl

Straight forward: 

This graph highlights the point of potential high end smartphone saturation for the iPhone. (The market size was projected from a blog post from @benedictevans about a year ago.)

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Charts $aapl $fb

aapl - looking for an entry between 120-122. The effects of the Apple Watch will be evident in the next quarter. Really curious to see the type of margin expansion.1T, here. We. Come.

fb - the multi month consolidation appears to have ended in March. Barring market weakness, the 50sma looks like an interesting entry. Additional weakness may take it to 77-78, 38sma on the weakly.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Charts $abbv

Daily looks like a real breakout, if action holdsup.

Weekly suggests the 20sma resistance might make longs wait a bit more.

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Charts $xon

Bill Miller's conviction on XON, got me looking into it. XON has a hell of a lot of info to absorb, fundamentally. Still working on fully understanding it's potental. In the mean time, I'm observing its trading dynamic. 

Technically, the stock looks really interesting. The 20sma failed, and now its testing the 50. Could bounce around here, until the weekly 14sma trend continues.

Unfortunately, until there is a better handle on the fundies, not really sure where the market cap belongs on this sucker just yet. So the trades are purely technical.

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Charts $tsla

Looks like an interesting entry.

Will there be a flush-out through the obvious support? With a crappy market but better than expected deliveries, maybe/hopefully. (Not sure where the flush-out would end, if it were to happen. Maybe 150, but that seems like too much for simply washing out the stops from obvious support.)

An interesting observation: deliveries, prior to the last few quarters, mimicked  tsla's upward momentum. Assuming this trend kicks back into gear, tsla should move upward.