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Wednesday, April 16, 2014

$goog underlining numbers

Google missed on top and bottom line. More concerning is the underlining health. Paid Clicks (q-q) saw its first decline since q3 2011. And CPC keeps declining.

Also of interest, the quarter-to-quarter declines seen in this quarter were greater than this time last year. 

Still, Google is the 3rd largest American company, via Market Cap, trading with a multiple above 27.

$yhoo stops revenue decline

Looks like Yahoo had managed to stop the year-over-year revenue decline. 

Judging by guidance, management continues to expect flat revenue growth.

The early stages of a turn around seem to be in play. 

On the flip side, earnings continue to be supported by equity interest (Yahoo Japan and Alibaba). But as revenue increases, so will operational earnings. Yahoo's gross margins are sizable (and grew under Mayer), an increase to revenue will trickle to the bottom line nicely.

$bac is okay

Scratching my head a bit wondering why the market thinks the current report is worthy of a 3% decline in the stock. 

From all accounts, the report was decent. The street factored in lower revenues, and BAC beat. The biggest headline factor was the effect of the litigations. Hit the bottom line more then expected.

The bank is still one of the few large banks trading below tangible book, and in relatively healthy shape. As the litigation risk slowly passes (as today represents chipping away of that risk) the stock should begin to approach tangible book.

Monday, April 14, 2014

$yhoo tax or refund?

Yahoo reports tax day, and I'm not sure what kind of report they will give us.

Marissa Mayer has done an interesting job transforming the company. It's morphed back into an nice consumption-facing product. Beautiful layouts, fast speeds, interesting products and a focus on the driving technologies. 

Simply, the streets wants to see revenue growth. If yhoo sees it, a +7-10% move would not be surprising. 

Unfortunately there was chatter from Kara Swisher that suggests this may not happen. (Because of her connections to the industry, it's a point-of-chatter that holds more sway.)

Mayer took a more hands on role trying to court advertisers toward the end of last year. And because many of Yahoo's products were / are in the right conditions (with a high level of user numbers), there is an expectation of progress. (At least from me.)

Maybe Mayer set the stage for ad partners, and will now look to hand it off to another. But the chatter was not something that I wanted to see, obviously. 

Regardless of the core business performance, the Alibaba IPO is coming around Q3, with an expected value of $120-150billion, to add support to Yahoo's stock. But I am more interested in the revitalization of a once great internet name. Hopefully, the efforts made over the last year or so are starting to pay off.

Friday, April 11, 2014

Market Thought... Hello Kitty

An orderly blood bath. 

The jobless claims were suppose to set the tone. It was a kick ass number. A number that should have sent the treasuries higher, and at least allowed the market to see a morning pop. That was very wrong logic. Instead the treasuries took a dump. And it had diarrhea throughout the day.


One of my biggest concerns is Putin-bear. There maybe enough geopolitical uncertainty to remove the premium from the market. That maybe happening considering the treasury demand in a robust economic enviornment.

My other lingering concern, and a correlation highlighted many weeks ago, is the Yen.

Six days ago, it looked to be in a breakdown mode. About to test the lows. But bounced, hard.

Six days ago the SP500 started the decline, although it was minimal. The real fun came the two days after.

The Yen continued to jump, and equities for America and Japan followed. (There was a bit of a pause as the markets rose, but that was due to dovish comments from the Fed.)

Over the last month, Yen down-equities up prevailed.

Some of the strength came over the last few days because of the lack of "additional" stimulus. (Although the BoJ still plans on spending a ton on stimulus. We also had the Chinese stay mum on more stimulus, but didnt effect their market.)

The 3% SP500 decline seems to be a market mechanics issue. 


Thursday, April 10, 2014

$ibm - blah to awesome?

With a timespan of a very "blah" quarter, IBM traded like crap, then with very little positive chatter, traded awesomely. 

And that's the head scratcher. It's a tech company. News about its business performance should be readily available for extrapolation. 

The one positive data point was Gartner's IT spending projections. Other then that, no chatter about future potential regarding Watson or its public cloud initiative (other than deflationary pressures from price cuts across all competitors). 

I am a fan of IBM. They have a corporate structure that allows for them to continuously evaluate and change their business. My biggest gripe is their poorer execution in relation to their competitors.  Usually, a move from 170 to 197 (near highs), are caused by a catalyst. A break from a negative perception.  But there was no catalyst in Q1. 

The last time I felt this way about IBM, a month later it was revealed that Buffett took on a major stake.  Maybe similar scenario is happening, with other bigboys. Or Buffett is adding. 

The Q2 report will be telling. 

$ebay retail gains, but may lose Icahn

Even though eBay may lose the momentum of Icahn, there was promising retail data from ChannelAdvisors the other day. (The kind of retail numbers that will maintain its bullish trend.)