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Thursday, January 29, 2015

$amzn chart dump - great numbers

Key take aways:

1. GM continue to rise. (Q-to-Q GM rose suggesting expansion at a higher rate.)
2. Operating Margins spiked.
3. Ex. Currency revenue beat.
4. Prime Membership is a huge moat.












$yhoo to $baba trading dynamic

Wanted to add to yhoo today, but the tight dynamic is hard to ignore.


Fairly tight with little, if any arbitrage. (Especially as the street's perception is that of a weak core, which I disagree with.)



$baba so much for first impressions

Also up in smoke, hopes of a Chinese company that could compete globally. (At least until Xiaomi is ready.)


Looks like the IPO opening price is the support to watch. 

So much for the price hikes going into singles day.

$xom into earnings

That crushing sound, its the stocks of companies that are pegged to commodities. Will xom endure?

I freaken hope so. (Skrew Chanos' short.)

The biggest worry with xom is the sustainability of its dividend. XOM will be dishing out some $11B dollars. Thats a huge fucking number. But a number xom should easily be able to handle given their huge free cash flow.

Going into the quarter two big headwinds are commodity price decline and the dollar conversion. (The size of this company would suggest multi-billion dollar adjustment. As was evident in Apple's quarter.)

Last time oil collapsed toward 40-50, the market was in a panic and the dividend was much smaller. 


A point of comfort for those long xom, through the 2008-2011 decline of xom, the dividend yield did not exceed 3.2%.

At current levels, xom dividend yield is already near 3%. Hence the extrapolation,  if the dividend is not lowered the stock downside should be limited with the low-end support (near 86) to be maintained. 

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Great $fb report. Revenue decelerating

Numbers looks great. Revenue growth decelerating, even with currency adjustments.




$yhoo core going in right direction

Mobile revenue

Q3 2014: ~$200M
Q4 2014:   $254M

This is the only revenue I reakly care about, but from a web point of view Yahoo is maintaining itself. Comscore still has it pegged at #2 behind Google sites, and search is gaining. (We should start seeing the fruits of search share into Q1.)



I too wish (GAAP) revenue was growing year-over-year, but to say things are not improving is to be disingenuous. 


In the mean time, technically 52 is resistance but down side seems limited unless BABA craps out.









Monday, January 26, 2015

$aapl super high expectations

Chatter going into the quarter is basically unanimous, to-be-massively-record-breaking.

Higher revenue, higher ASP, and more importantly, higher expectations.

Technicals:

AAPL is at the higher-end trading range, with a pretty overbought position and high expectations.


Typically not a good recipe for a stock to pop after earnings. Especially when year-over-year comparisons will be difficult.

BUT (there is always a but)

If the market is blah due to discounted expectations, downside should be limited. There is very little doubt anymore on the iOS ecosystem. This facilitates a continuation of its long-tern uptrend.


I was hoping aapl would see a decline toward 95 during the recent market decline, but that never happened. So its unlikely it will see 95 now, more like 106-107, if we are lucky.