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Sunday, September 28, 2014

Race to the bottom $fxe $fxy $fxf $uup

Major global currencies have been collapsing. 

Euro decline, about time. Needs way more to go.

Yen decline, nothing new given abenomics.

Franc decline, luckly its on the list.

US dollar strength, supporting the declines.

The USA is doing the rest of world a few big favors:

1. Easy money fed, but thats ending soon.

2. Appreciating dollar, allowing the other economies to do better. (But in Europes case, to stay a float.)

3. Bombing IS

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

$fb Instagram ads

Instagram started rolling out ads in the UK. Only a matter of time before the rest of the developed markets start to see them consistently. 

Interesting side note, ComScore latest mobile and web based properties does not have Instagram in the top 50.

Friday, September 19, 2014

$baba play

Looks like the market makers did a goodjob holding 90. 

The next few weeks should be interesting. Depending on the trading dynamic, 90 may prove to be the ultimate support. Looking to play the high 80s, but if it rallies then consolidates (before singles day), 90 would be the entry point. 

Considering the hype leading to the ipo, baba needs a consolidation. But a catalyst will most likely be singles day.

$yhoo common sense valuation

With BABA being valued at $150B, the market trading history suggested Yahoo was worth about $40/share. 

Alibaba is now valued around $220B. 

Yahoo is collecting over $8B in cash (excluding taxes), and it's remaining BABA position is now worth $35B.

There is an absurdly obvious arbitrage pricing trade here. Considering YHOO's market cap is $41B.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Market Thought... Fed, "whenever"

Two key developments within two days:

1. China injected $81 billion in China banks. The injection is argued as a stimulus, but given the spike in swaps prior to the injection, the injection looks to be a 'maintainer of the status quo'. 

2. The Fed Statement indicated that the Fed has thrown all metrics to the wind and will raise rates, slowly, when it feels like it. 

So China keeps humming along, however poorly. And the Fed will keep the keep holding the markets hand. This suggests there maybe too much fear factored into this market. (Despite the fact that the Vix is pretty low.)

Regardless of what the Fed says, the market will now lead, and the fed will follow. The 10 yr looks to have a bottom.

The yield may listen to the fed, and channel trade. But as the US economic data imptoves, rates will rise, with or without the Fed.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

$aapl traded well

Despite the crap-out of the stock during the presentation, the later-day action looksto have been a function of the market.



The 1pm selloff is purely aapl dynamics at play. The rest looks to be exaggerated by the index.