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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

$twtr still not overbought on the weekly charts

Interestingly enough, this big move has not put twtr in an overbought condition via the weekly oscillators. And sentiment seems fairly calm. 

Makes one think the move is sustainable, due to an increasing positive sentiment. 

Market Cap. now stands at $27B. Still very reasonable considering the growth we saw yesterday. (And in relation to WhatsApp purchase price.)

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

$twtr - twwwoooowwww

Numbers were pretty good. Revenue beat. User growth beat. Gross Margins at highs.

My only rubs: 

1. FB produced an 84% GM this past quarter, and consistently produces +70% GM. TWTR should be in a similar position. 

2. Operating Margin losses to decline faster.

twtr will be testing the 50 level resistence, if action holds.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

$amzn GM at highs, and clockwork

The gross margins are at highs, and the rest is business as usual.

The market seems to not like it this quarter. (3rd quarter in a row where aman sold off.)

The stock is approaching level of interest again. Looking for 325-330. (Also, from a growth, reach and market cap perspective, and the market cap is too low.)

Jobless claim at 8yr low. Somehow low rates are still justified.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

$yhoo buyout speculation or technicals

Either the stock is reacting to a Forbes buyout article or its bouncing from its low channel range.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

$aapl margins continue to improve and cash spikes

Looks like management buys back smartly.

Looking to add on weakness, via oversold conditions, to capture the run-up into the new product launch. Probably around mid 92.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

$googl report not that good

The report was decent. Not sure it justifies the +30 multiple for a +$340B company. The paid clicks and cpc were nothing special. 

Revenue growth is 13% yr-yr. (I see chatter simply cherry picking search revenue growth.) The one metric that MAY justify a higher multiple, is the faster growing operating income. It is growing 36% yr-yr, but most of this growth is due to the supressed income Motorola caused. (Normalizing for Motorola, growth is about 6-7%.)

Still trying to figure out why Google is allowed to have such a high multiple while growth is / has slowed, and much of there "initiatives" have little prospect for adding legitimate business lines.

For a mega cap stock, a multiple of 20-25 is considered pretty large. (But mega caps usually have capital allocation programs, making their cash productive. Google does not have such allocations.)