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Friday, October 9, 2015

Market Thought... Break out or push back $spy

Not sure if the dooms day predictions will come true, but one thing that is pretty clear: European banks are a fucking mess.

Icahn is preaching about the junk bond market, but we have two very real scenarios where in the last two days EU banks have shown to be swimming naked. Seriously, after 2008, the fact that the ECB allowed for suck bullshit cushions is the real fucked up part. The real tragedy is the endless supply of arrogance in the EU that has allowed it to happen.

I mean, two companies (VW and Glencore) take a hit and now major banks are seeing losses or need to recapitalize. 

Markets rallied thanks to the Fed. Pushing the SP500 to interesting levels.

It has arrived at interesting resistances. The heaviest of resistance being the 200 sma.

Before seeing the EU bank chatter, i would normally short closer to 2060. But with the EU banks in the shitter, took on early protection.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

$twtr Moments is engrossing and powerful

Twitter is a $50B company pretending to be an $18B company. 

Twitter beat last quarter numbers. They should continue to do the same. Despite the "lack of  scale" chatter. (I mean 10s of 100s of million of people is not scale enough?!? Maybe not in the world of traditional web based advertising, but in a world of native advertising, the numbers so far say it is.) Hopefully now that Jack is permanent, the message will be just as honest but the tone more uplifting. 

Twitter is already doing better than Wall Street gives it credit for. Now it has this new medium, which is totally engrossing and can lead to some crazy-awesome truly native advertising. 

Moments looks to be at its beginning. Things will start to really heat up when 

1. more publishers are on board
2. Categories can be chosen by user
3. More live / major events presented through the moments categories
4. When Moments become a platform for individual or corporate publishers

So where did the $50B number come from? $50Bis my preference of valuation. But that's a "just because" analysis. (Most of the street valuations can be boiled down to "just because".)

Realistically, I use Facebook as a previous comparison for valuation. (The networks do not compare but the way wall street treats them might.)

Back when FB ipo'd, their advertising was that of a chair. A CHAIR! With zero and limited mobile revenue, and a poor html strategy, after the ipo the street punished the stock. 

The market cap went as low as $38B, coming off of solid second market valuations.

Below is the growth associated with that revenue.

What I am trying to show is that when FB was at a $2.5-3B revenue company, its valuation was still in the +$30B range, even when it had below 45% revenue growth.

An argument can be made that twtr belongs in the +$30B range. (Its not $50B yet, but ill take $30B.)

Monday, October 5, 2015

$baba negative trend breaking

At least with the fisrt level of resistance.

Next stop, between 68-70. If it starts to break the wkly 10sma or daily 62sma, baba will be in a new trading dynamic. Yahoooooo!

Monday, September 28, 2015

$mon looks like sh!t

One of the worste charts I have seen in a while, barring my beloved aqua blue friend. 

Just nasty. Many funie reasons, but lock steph w the commodities sell off. 

The glimmer of hope is the weekly chart.

The stock has approached conditions of the great recession. Its at a historically low trailing multiple. Battling low demand from farmers. On the constant defense to support the validity of their product. Fundamentally, mon still looks pricey. But technically, looks interesting.

*I am not entering. Even though I think it's an interesting play here.*

Market Thought... $spy monthly trend

Last time the 28/32sma was tested, back in 2011-2012, the market tested it for 3 months. 

Seems like now we are entering a new trading range, where the markets will channel trade for a while. (Probably until global GDP growth stops slowing down.)

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Is the $twtr BoD CEO dissenter Peter Currie?

From the loud chatter available we know there are only a few, if only one, dissenter preventing Jack D from being full time CEO. The vocal criteria from Chris Sacca were:

1. Low engagement with twitter product
2. No real skin in the company

Suntrust provided the below chart in a recent note.

This leave two clear candidates: Peter Currie and Marjorie Scardino.

The other day Sacca tweet "he" in reference to the dissenter.

So we are left with Peter Currie as the most likely man causing the stock to remain in a discount due to CEO uncertainty. 

To be clear, the above criteria are subjective and in relative terms, it does not exclude David Rosenblatt and Peter Chernin when comparing against the founders and Peter Fenton.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

$bac should be low / med 17

At least as per yield correlation. While bac declined, the 10yr held its own. BAC should be trading near low/mid 17.