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Friday, November 21, 2014

Quality of $spy move sucks

The markets rally big because of a move that will sustain current growth trajectory (at best) in China and a reiteration of asset purchases by the ECB (that was originally revealed weeks ago.

Intra day, may chill near 2055.

But looking for a more serious decline toward 2000-2020.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

$amzn wants to breakout

But will it? 

Daily is testing its holding pattern

If this breaks, its to the 220sma.

When that breaks, its going to 350-360.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Charts $ibm $baba $bac

IBM approaching its low end channel. If it can bounce here, it will look bullish for a bottoming. 

The 5sma looks like a good entry, just because.

Set up seems the 9sma is the support, but I'm secretly hoping for a move towards the 28sma

Friday, November 14, 2014

Charts $fb $bac $ibm $twtr $xom $yhoo

FB should see a nice bounce off the 38sma.

The 9 or 20 sma retrace? Either way, bac will test 18 soon.

What a shitty chart. IBM looks capped at high 164, and supported by 160.

Channel looks to be 44 to the 39s. (Sold some in the am, but bought 1/2 back in the PM. And as a side note, the S&P is still a worthless organization that gives worthless opinions, literally.)

With oil and nat gas declining, the weakness should allow the stock to see the 20sma again.

Waiting for YHOO to approach its 10sma.

Friday, November 7, 2014

$baba @ $280billion

A company that will complete about $12-15B in revenue next year is now worth $280Billion.

I am a fan of Alibaba, and a believer in the world of mobile there will be trillion dollar companies. And baba should be one of them, eventually. 

Straight up action scares me.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

$amzn what if spending eased

In 2010 Amazon's revenue growth seemingly shifts higher. 

Income from Operations grew in a consistent fashion until the end of 2010. In 2011, Amazon embarked on a spending journey, directly attributed to additional fulfillment centers and 'technology'.

But an interesting development took place toward the end of 2011. Gross Margins started to rise.

Quarter-on-quarter there have been a distinct improvement.

The reason is probably due to a multi faceted approch of third party resellers, AWS ('other' revenues) and Prime memberships. 

The one that is the most interesting revenue stream is Prime memberships. A recent analysis suggested that 50 million Amazon costumers are Prime members. If that is true, that's an additional $4-5B a year high margin revenue.

What if Amazon ignored the future prospects of a Hardware-as-part of the platform or did not care about the logistics side of its business. (Let's ignore the fact that revenue growth may not be where it is today from the spending. What if spending eased?

(The blue line assumes a continuation of income trajectory. The green line assumes income growth in relation to revenue growth. The grey line attempts incorporate the increased Gross Margins.)