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Saturday, December 20, 2014

Charts $xom

Chanos has a short thesis XOM. The simple argument: so goes oil, xom will follow. (Given 90% of revenue is tied to oil.) Referencing the 2009 decline.

A 10yr look suggests Chanos is kinda right, at least directionally.

My issue is that the movements aren't well correlated. My bigger issue is any refence to an illiquid-nonfunctioning 2009 market, and apply it to a functioning, liquid market of today. This is the kind of market that appreciates yield, and may prevent exaggerated moves based on short-term market fluctuations of a commodity. We may not see similar patterns from 2009-2011. 

Also, in 2009 xom made a $41B play on US natural gas. Their Alaska LNG terminal should be active in 2015, allowing xom to play the great-arbitrage. (Think this is already happening in Papua New Guinea terminal.)  

If Russia keeps being assholes, oil will probably keep getting pressured. But if they play ball, global economies will demand more oil, recover (maybe towards 70) quicker and the thesis will be a muted one. 

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Monday, December 15, 2014

Chart $bac

Pushing 6 year highs. Amazing, in a pathetic sort of way. But bac has been good to us, so no complaints here.

If yield spreads were gonna get wider, there would be plenty of confidence in bac breaking the 20 resistance mark. But we are living in a douche-bag world (cough-Putin-cough), where the world has decided to curb it economic growth to basically give him a bitch slap. So global rates are low, but Japan and Chins are still stimulating, and Europe is about to with their Public-Private infrastructure fund. And once Putin plays ball, oil will firm up.

In the mean time, major lawsuits have passed, and book value is within reach. Now, if the financial world doesn't blowup (it won't) after the greek elections on Wed, bac looks really good here.

Charts $aapl

Getting pretty oversold on the daily. Usually suggest a pop is in the works.

Supporting the thesis, the long-term trend line is around 104-105.

Looking to play the pop, but also expecting some action around the trend line. Worst case, aapl breaches the line, and weakness-as-equivalent-as-strength is seen. Meaning a 14% move below the line. Does this thesis make any fundamental sense? Absolutely not. (Since when do hopeful expectations of a pattern make sense?!?)

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Market Thought... Greece, not oil

The markets are seeing declines with the Vix spiking. In a few days Europe will either be on its current economic path or will have to re-assess how to handle Greece. 

"Antonis Samaras, the centre-right prime minister, has called a snap presidential election for December 17th"

With this uncertainty, comes fear and protection. Hence the rise of the Vix. And the fear is at interesting levels.

But Greece itself is at an interesting place. How long can a people endure massive GDP declines, worst in modern times. Unable to start afresh, and forced to experience a slow bleed of dignity and dealing with psychology exhaustion? 6 years not enough? Does the average citizen deserve such lack of dignity?

If Europe loses Greece, the powers that be have themselves to blame. A people can only take so much. Honestly, to the arrogant EU policy makers, a proper "fuck you" maybe in order. 

But despite the social affects, the ECB has had the capability, basically unlimited asset purchases, to mitigate the fallout of a Greek exit from the Euro. I just hope those fuckers prepped for this scenario. 

In the mean time, market levels are very interesting, and looking for re-entries. 

Friday, December 12, 2014

Chart $ibm

Classic break down from the obvious 160 support.

Real question, was the catalyts a down grade or just a big player pushing? 

Either way, the slow sto insicates more of a flush to take place. 

Looking to trade, long, the oversold condition.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

China and the EU $baba $yhoo

Thanks to China's continued push to legitimate loans, its market is down 5%. More west, we have those pesky Greek stirring the pot again. (Such trouble makers! ;)

The SP500 looks here, even with a multiple contraction going into Q1, so long as earnings hold up.

In the mean time, baba looks interesting and yhoo too. (Among many other names.)