The market looks interesting. It is overbought, but has for the moment held support via the SMAs.
The market can move to the 1300 level, but I do not seeing it surpass it as the MACD will also act as resistance. However, being that it is overbought, the reward is to the down side.
Ultimately I still believe in the thesis that the Vix will rise to the mid 40s before a bottom can be achieved.
Stocks are ultimately going lower. SP500 will probably re-test their lows. The economic data is now showing the consumer is in some really bad places. This negativity will spread, ultimately to corporate profits causing market weakness. We are already seeing it, and we are probably going to see more of it. The 1300 target bear market rally still may happen, but ultimately the reward is to the downside. (To me that means to keep a short position on until the VIX hits around mid 40s.)
No need to stress, just prepare. A lot of great stocks selling for a discount, below their enterprise value. When I notice a market bottom (I will indicate when I do as I feel we have started the final leg of the bear market… ‘the consumer washout’) I will heavily purchase Call options in MA, GOOG, AAPL and other quality names experiencing severe multiple contraction due to nothing more than macro economic negativity.
Nice action today with PWR. Looks to want to continue its uptrend, but 34 may provide some resistance. It is consolidated, with potential room to run.
As for valuation, its seems pricey, but when using proper growth estimates and historic PE with respect to construction/consultants, valuation is not bad at all. Use this linked valuation calculator to see what I mean. See model… w/EPS as 0.84, growth of 20.0% (as indicated by the CC today), Est Required Rate of reture at 10.5%, Terminal Adjusted PE of 23.6% (but this should be in the 30s).
A current price of 37 is given, with a 5yr projected price of 60. The company is not overvalued, if using the proper estimates.
If you are selling MA at the current price, you are nuts. (This comment is coming from a trader who has no problem shorting.) I have shorted MA when it has gotten overextended, but now is not one of those times.
Their previous quarterly results were not that bad. Think about the macro economic environment in which they produced a 9cent beat.
The retail numbers will be out tomorrow, and I am sure they will be horribe. Whether MA takes a hit on the numbers or not is up to the big boys driving the price. But MA is oversold, and valuation has consolidated significantly. For the moment MA does not look to want to stay below 227.
No analyst has backed away from the story, and I agree with them. (With the exception of Cramer, who called MA’s quarter a horrible one. I still do not understand how he concludes this.)
The chart is negative, but will the fundamentals deteriorate to such an extent that merits a downward collapse in the name?
Apparently they worked on the same project. PWR stated they worked on the 2MW Denver International Airport. WWAT had this contract. Mostlikely WWAT contracted out some or all the work to these ‘ditch diggers’.
Makes me like PWR even more… tells me the need for ‘ditch diggers’ is not going away.
If WWAT’s Entech panels are as advertised, the demand for them will be big. I would love to see WWAT focus on production and selling of products, like the panels and MaxPure versus installations.
Today’s move may have confirmed the SP to move to around 1300-1320. An intereting move from the SMA’s that were once resistance…
Potential confirmation of this is the move within financials. The XLF looks to now want to move to around 24.
(Something like this would make me want to buy JPM, but JPM is at a resistance point at the moment and is overbought. It can most certainly go up, but I am being patient with it. I would like to enter JPM around 38, as a core position.)
What does PWR and a violin have in common? PWR is being played like one today.
Whoever walked it down today is in complete control. u mofos.
If PWR has a good report tomorrow morning, and pushes upward, I declare today a manipulation day to get shares below 31.
Is the only stock I know that likes to do nothing when they announce orders. More good news coming from the desalination front, this time from the middle east. And yet the stock is currently down 5cents. Awesome!
The stock is getting no coverage, no analyst estimates but its keeps producing as the desalination wind is on its back. While it is awesomely fustrating, the stock is such a hidden treasure.
Maybe after August 11th more visability will be given from Management, and the street will give it more attention. But there is no way I am letting any of my trading share go below 13, and there is no way I am selling any of my core position in this thing. I get Google Alerts for ‘water drought’, and everyday there are around 10 news articles concerning water shortages. The need for economically viable desalination and fresh water in general is so urgent, I am surprised mainstream media is not covering it like the price of Oil.
Apple’s chart looks to want to continue downward.
Especially on the pull down effect of the market. The market seems like it wants to continue downward, but telling its direction at the moment (with any sense of confidence) is not happening. So I will not make the case for a direction in the market.
But I will say this… every tick downward, especially with AAPL and MA, I get the itch to pull the trigger. I keep thinking ‘at what price is cheap enough’, and for AAPL and MA I think it to be 140 and 178 respectively. (But for MA, that may be a fantasy price… 218 is more like it.)
Sucks to say, even when this thought puts people like me in a greater advantage while trading. There are reports that iPhone production is hitting some 40M for the year. Crushing the 25M estimates, yet the stock is taking a hit. (article)
Up is down and down is up in this crazy market. Based on what the chart says, around 145-150 can be seen. (Which puts a PEG of 1.17-1.20.)
The universal question I will keep asking is… what is cheap enough?
