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Saturday, November 28, 2015

Chart - $trxc

While waiting for the FDA decision, they arebuilding outtheir marketing and sales teams. (They seem to have nice experience.)

Technical hurdles are obvious. But once the machine starts moving, after FDA decision, current trading dynamic become a mute point. 

Friday, November 27, 2015

Some $yhoo facts

1. Improvement in mobile is evident. It is a mobile company.

(I wish)

The Yahoo App is usually a solid 3, but its pushing a 1 star thanks to removing the back-swipe. To say it does not know mobile is now disingenuous. 

2. Many of Mayer's acquisitions have been to bulster mobile. Obviously that strategy worked. Although from a finacial perspective, the acquisitions have done little. A quick look at Wikipedia suggests Yahoo did about 48 acquisitions during Mayer's rein. The major purchases (tumblr, brightroll, flurry etc) cost about $2.4B. Not a bad spend rate. 

3. Their social savvy sucks. Or at least that is the perception. Yahoo spent $1.1B on tumblr and after multiple quarters with native ads, there is little to brag about. (Facebook is more than just sponsored posts in the news stream. Its the leveraging of the graph w/Atlas and tracking sell-through that makes their offering effective and high margin.) Yahoo's gross margin decline prove the lack of effectiveness and overall strategy.

Yahoo also does not know how to leverage their original content through other social. (At least not effectively, and their content is not typically what goes viral.)

4. Yahoo still drive huge traffic and has enormous reach. (NFL broadcast of a blah game, at weird hour of the day, produced great traffic.)

(They successfully leveraged their audience to participate via a ground up transactional business, Daily Fantasy, and through nothing more than their installed audience, were able to claim the #3 slot behind Draftking and Fan Deul. While still taking ad revenue from the two leaders.)

5. The stock is completely dependent on baba. There is still a direct correlation, but since the last quarter report, BABA now has the premium.

6. Little trust in Mayer. Manager turn over and reports of hiring consultants are breaking the camel's back.

7. Finacials are not encouraging. Revenue growth is coming at a big cost, and gross margins are down. 

Gemini seemed impressive, mobile usage is nice but none of the goodness is translating to the numbers. 

8. Original content lacks new-age character. Lacks a voice and tone that would resonate with the younger generation.

9. Lacks community throughout its mobile properties. 

Yahoo has been playing catch-up to mobile, and now they need to get ahead of the curve. The things they lack are obvious. How they plan on filling the voids is what will guide their future. Will they target the audience that will make them relevant? Will they embrace a solution that embraces more than just advertising? 

Companies exist that can fill these voids with the right demographic Yahoo desperately needs.

-BuzzFeed (leverages all social platforms well, brand management, quality original content)
-SeekingAlpha (financial community)

-Motif Investing (a transactional business, leveraging the huge finacial audience)

This baba spinoff is now a side show. Tax hit or not, the core has to become relevant. Yahoo needs to spend that cash wisely. Does Mayer still have the sway to convince the acquisition of relevant companies?

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Charts - $aapl $amzn $baba $bac $fb $twtr

aapl - entered from previous technical setups, but the weekly 78sma looks interesting too.

amzn - waiting for the 62 sma to trade it again.

baba - looks for a bounce near thr 10 sma. (But when comparing it to global peers, its market cap is too low. It should be more in line with amzn and google. And singles day performance does not suggest WeChat chipping away just yet. The general rise in consumption is benefitting both.)

bac - as rates go, so goes bac. Already re entered from the push back from low 18. Will add near mid/high 16.

fb - momentum trend still intact. Would rather take a position near the 38sma on weekly.

twtr - if current level can hold, it will be a higher low. A restest of the weekly 20 sma will breach if higher lows are made. If not, we linger.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Charts - $fb supports

Points of which are interesting nuy.

Barring a systemic issue that arises, the 20sma on the weekly seems interesring. 

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

China and Rates - $baba $bac

On the heels of a 6.5% target China GDP, the perception of stability, or the whatever-it-takes attitude, should bring stability and benefit to baba. Looking how well its western counter parts have performed, baba's market cap seems too low. Although it recently rallied hard, and the breakout was highlighted here, its at a little resistance point. But with stability, it will keep rising. 

With a stabile China, and an easing ECB, the Fed is out of excuses to keep rates at these levels. With rising rates, bac will rise. (Stock has been correlating well with the 10yr yields since the litigation concerns have eased.)

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Charts - $spy

Markets are approaching highs, and it should be seeing a technical push back. (Although energy stocks have given a nice boost. See xom post below.) 

Monday, November 2, 2015

Charts - $aapl 125-130 near

The obvious play is near. Once the 38sma on the weekly is broken, it should follow the 5 sma to 125-130. (Although I'm biased for it to make all time highs.)

If it bounces off the weekly sma, aapl may see 115-117. (If it does, im adding. But given market sentiment, the above seems like the higher probability event.)