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Saturday, March 28, 2015

Charts $aapl $amzn

aapl - 120 looks fairly obvious for a potential pop. But a better longer-term entry maybe between the 23 and 38 sma on the weekly.

amzn - 360 looks interesting. If 360 breaks, the 20 sma on the weekly may be the next stop.

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

$fb is not a news destination

Facebook is partnering with media outlets to include news in their walled garden. Should have an interesting effect on the stories being shared. But, as of now, people don't go to Facebook for news. People happen to see news on Facebook. (A difference that will effect monetization.)

Facebook looks to want to make its properties a news destination. Could it happen? With a billion users, there will be a critical mass of core users that probably will. (16% of over a billion is a lot.)

Snapchat's attempt at becoming a media distribution center seems to be working, if looking at data usage, Facebook will have some level of success leveraging their user base.

The same can be said for Yahoo. (Yahoo lacks a popular messaging service. Although that may not be as relevant as people think, at least in the west. Yahoo leverages their users to cross promote and link mobile properties. But I really do wish Yahoo produced an engaging messaging service, worthy of their current efforts in mobile.)

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Charts $abbv

Tried to re-start its uptrend, but it looks like it wants to chill for a bit longer.

Looking for 58, but 56ish is not out of question.

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Charts $ibm $twtr $mon $yhoo

IBM making the right moves but in a sea of resistence. First stop 165, then 169ish, then the 62sma.

TWTR deviated from its long term negative treand. But kind of dicking around. Looking for it to go between 50-55 soon.

MON looks like it can have a tradeable pop near 110. 

YHOO keeps diverging from baba. Once the street starts to recognize the turn around, its going past 52 quickly. (Anyone else notice the higher quality brand advertising throughout the yahoo network?) 

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Waiting for inflation $spy $bac $xom

The Fed targets 2%. This seems to be the measure they will use to raise rates.

Sucking the wind from the sails was the last PPI report. Too many components declined.

Component breakdown:

While components have declined employment started to accelerate. 

But that only matters if employment is viewed as a leading indicator.

Will employment be a leading indicator? Unemployment is at lows, and the Fed eluded to a 5.0-5.2% rate may in fact be the rate that matters.

Labor participation rate is used to brush off the unemployment rate. But labor participation is about the same spot as the early 80s, and the PCE was still pretty high.

Yellen acknowledged economic improvements, and that trends are currently above expectations, yet we have this deflationary concern. 

Will global stimulus mitigate the concern or is it just a matter of time before the jobs data starts trickling down to the component costs?

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

$yhoo - media and tech blurred lines

Yahoo [loves] these blurred lines! 
You know you want it. 
Content for your platform
Yahoo wants to get nasty
hey hey hey hey

Yahoo is pushing investors the narrative of MAVNS. While clever, I don't see yahoo in that context. It boils down to two categories: media and technology. 


1. Producing original content. (News, magazines, videos etc)

2. Distributing that content to other platforms. (Most prominent in Snapchat discover. Yet to prove its viral worth though.)

3. Leveraging their massive user base to transition users to mobile centered applications. (Tumblr, News Digest, Weather, mobile apps, mobile friendly web design, etc)

4. Media partnerships (ABC)

5. Distribution deals (SNL, etc)


1. Gemini (naitive ads and network placements)

2. Mobile Analytics / development  (flurry, in app search)

3. Video (brightroll)

4. Continuous improvements on established core functions (mail, content consumption)

Yahoo is the most under rated media / tech stock in the market. Period.

An indication is the types of advertising their network is attracting. In particular tumblr, the weather app, Magazines and News Digest. High quality brands from Crysler, Honda, ATT, Google, Charmin, WarbyParker etc.

Last quarter, Yahoo gave us a reason to believe, but it was drowned out by the BABA spin off announcement. The coming quarters, the market will not be able to ignore the performance. 

Sunday, March 15, 2015

$bac - higher lows

Since Feb 26th, bac has seen higher lows.

Within the context of a negative trend.

Breakout? Im betting on it.

Friday, March 6, 2015

Market Thought... the $spy catalyst

On 2/26, the 'red flag' post warned for a needed market pull back, as SP500 estimates came down and the market multiple was way too high. Looks like the strong employment numbers, pushing rates higher, triggered the sell off.

With the catalyst in hand, how hard will this sell off be?

From a multiple perspective, assuming estimates remain and the trailing multiple approach 'normal levels' (aka multiple highs of previous quarters), the SP500 could see 1950-2000.

Technically, the SP500 can see mini bounces from here, with a few supports on the way down. But the daily suggest stronger support near 2000, and weekly sma support near 1950.

$bac - anatomy of market inefficiency and idiocy

Composition of a market: Innovators, imitators and idiots.

1. On Feb 26th, bac issues its 10K. Analysts chose to focus on highlighted risks do to reg changes spelled out in its general risk section. Catalyst was a UBS analyst, and the imitators and idiots that followed blindly.

2. BAC sees a 2 day 5-8% decline.

3. BAC passes test.

4. Jobs number way better than expected and unemployment at 2008 lows.

5. BAC recovers.

Future: with stronger jobs and r.o.w economic stimulus, economic trends favor BAC. BAC should be trading between mid 17 to low 20s!

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Quick thoughts on $twtr vs $fb

(A recent write up on The Information got my juices flowing on this one.)

Facebook has proven itself quarter after quarter, and the numbers speak for themselves. They are able to leverage their scale and graph to print money. 

Good for them, but to dismiss Twitter as per metric based on user metric ignores a trend just getting started. 

On Feb 7th, I posted the momentum in twtr fundamentals. But a nascent trend I did not highlight is how Twitter is being used as the foundation for other apps. 

Twilo is one of the best examples. Meerkat is a very recent example. Dataminr is a more professional facing application.

Twilo is a consumer friendly (brilliant) UX leveraging Twitter data for relevant places to visit.

Meerkat is used to perform livevideo streams. Subsequently Twitter is in talks to purchase a similar offering but this only adds to twitter's real time information distribution capability. (But more design thought is needed for this type of app to be consumer friendly.)

Dataminr discovers actionable signals from Twitter. (Identifying legitimate tweets vs rumor inspired ones.)

Then there are the data collaborations: IBM, Google.

There is a lot going on with Twitter, outside of the more traditional momentum in their fundamentals, and these emerging applications will keep adding to twitter's value.

These new applications are things that simply don't work on facebook or any other non-rest-time network.