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Thursday, February 23, 2012

Oil commodity - equity disconnect

There is a disconnect with respect to oil, the commodity, and oil related equities.

Obviously there will never be a very high correlation between the trading of a commodity and a stock related to that commodity, but as oil keeps rising, related equities have some catching up to do. Especially in an unrelenting bullish market.

Over the last year Brent and WTI saw current prices because of geopolitical concerns.

Right now there are some geopolitical concerns, but nothing as serious as last year. (Last year there was actual conflict with production cuts, and right now its just BS tit-for-tat political rhetoric.)

Unfortunately, the oil related stocks I follow (SLB and SU), are lagging the commodity.

Basically, for SU and SLB should trend toward the mid 40s and low 90s, respectively. As they did last time Brent and WTI was at 125 and near 108, respectively.

As the commodity price stays elevated, and I believe it will due to global demand, the value of equities will rise.

NOTE: I recently sold off SU because it is pretty overbought, and am looking to actively take it back on, as a consolidation takes place.  I am in SLB, and am looking to add to the position on declines.

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