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Sunday, September 28, 2014

Race to the bottom $fxe $fxy $fxf $uup

Major global currencies have been collapsing. 

Euro decline, about time. Needs way more to go.

Yen decline, nothing new given abenomics.

Franc decline, luckly its on the list.

US dollar strength, supporting the declines.

The USA is doing the rest of world a few big favors:

1. Easy money fed, but thats ending soon.

2. Appreciating dollar, allowing the other economies to do better. (But in Europes case, to stay a float.)

3. Bombing IS

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

$fb Instagram ads

Instagram started rolling out ads in the UK. Only a matter of time before the rest of the developed markets start to see them consistently. 

Interesting side note, ComScore latest mobile and web based properties does not have Instagram in the top 50.

Friday, September 19, 2014

$baba play

Looks like the market makers did a goodjob holding 90. 

The next few weeks should be interesting. Depending on the trading dynamic, 90 may prove to be the ultimate support. Looking to play the high 80s, but if it rallies then consolidates (before singles day), 90 would be the entry point. 

Considering the hype leading to the ipo, baba needs a consolidation. But a catalyst will most likely be singles day.

$yhoo common sense valuation

With BABA being valued at $150B, the market trading history suggested Yahoo was worth about $40/share. 

Alibaba is now valued around $220B. 

Yahoo is collecting over $8B in cash (excluding taxes), and it's remaining BABA position is now worth $35B.

There is an absurdly obvious arbitrage pricing trade here. Considering YHOO's market cap is $41B.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Market Thought... Fed, "whenever"

Two key developments within two days:

1. China injected $81 billion in China banks. The injection is argued as a stimulus, but given the spike in swaps prior to the injection, the injection looks to be a 'maintainer of the status quo'. 

2. The Fed Statement indicated that the Fed has thrown all metrics to the wind and will raise rates, slowly, when it feels like it. 

So China keeps humming along, however poorly. And the Fed will keep the keep holding the markets hand. This suggests there maybe too much fear factored into this market. (Despite the fact that the Vix is pretty low.)

Regardless of what the Fed says, the market will now lead, and the fed will follow. The 10 yr looks to have a bottom.

The yield may listen to the fed, and channel trade. But as the US economic data imptoves, rates will rise, with or without the Fed.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

$aapl traded well

Despite the crap-out of the stock during the presentation, the later-day action looksto have been a function of the market.



The 1pm selloff is purely aapl dynamics at play. The rest looks to be exaggerated by the index.

$FB $GOOG market caps are huge. Bigger than Ad spend.

Food for thought.  Facebook and Google's combined market cap is bigger then their primary market.

FB = $200B

GOOG = $400B

Total = $600B

Digital Ad spend as per eMarketer

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Chatter Alert - $aapl $amzn

aapl: high demand for iPhone 6 indicated by consumed shipping capacity by Apple. 

amzn: a positive post by Benedict Evans and a seemingly corrdinated discussion from the influence-factory a16z. Amazon is a collection of dozens of business and most profits get funneled for infrastructure builds. Cost of business fairly consistent. (Basically the same story that my chart-data-dumps display every quarter.)

Friday, September 5, 2014

Market Thought... Cause Tepper said so

Tepper said on Bloomberg "the bond rally is over". (JPM issued a note the other day stating the same.)

Implications galore.

If the rally is done, rate increases are set to begin. Although structurally, rates are still in its negative trend.

A play on a bottoming yield is the $TBT. After many months of decline, in an economic situation meriting higher rates, a bottoming looks to be happening. (Although the treasury had a few fakeouts in the last few months, if one of the few major geopolitical events ease, a treasury sell off can happen.)

With rates set to rise, will the market discount the increases? For how long will the market trade with an above average premium?

Over the past few quarters the market saw an expanding multiple. Seeing higher lows and higher highs. Except for this quarter, so far. This quarter has seen a higher low, but not a higher high.

Theory: mr market is starting to anticipate a normal US rate enviornment. Now that the ECB went from uber accommodating to ridiculous accommodation, and Japan keeps pushing clown-funny accommodation, why does the Fed still need to be so accommodating?

Or the equity markets are not yet discounting anything, and its current dynamic is a consequence of geopolitical events. 

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Interesting $yen action. At lows.

Continues its 30% drop.

Relative muted effect on the Nikkei. (Not at all time high despite the weak Yen.)