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Saturday, February 25, 2012

ECRI maybe fundamentally wrong

After watching this interview, ECRI's perception on some indicators maybe wrong.

Lakshman Achuthan highlights jobs are a lagging indicator, and past perception this seems correct. But over the past year there has been a new thought process, by some big names in the money game (via Pimco and El Erian), that puts jobs as a leading indicator.  Jobs as a leading indicator is significant because the majority of Achuthan's argument becomes a muted one.

Frankly I am disappointed that the 3 CNBC anchors did not bring this up in the discussion, especially since El Erian's point was made on CNBC.

Basically, if employment is viewed as a leading indicator, ECRI's recession call is dead wrong.

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