Search This Blog

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Ford - Timeless Portfolio

Added Ford today to the Timeless Portfolio (T.P.).

I have designated a specific amount of cash (typically not utilized when trading) to be used for my T.P. This way a cash load is being utilized.

I have already purchased the first set of NAT, KMP, IBM and now F. Waiting on BKE. All these were initial positions. Will buy the full amount with a declining market.

(IMO, the SP500 may trade up to 1210ish, then correct. Upon that correction, I will utilize the remaining allocated cash for the T.P.)

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Natty Gas

Talk about a decline. For the brave, Nat. Gas is currently at a light support, but I am of the belief it goes to toward the mid 3 support depicted in the chart.

If that happens, I believe CHK will head toward 20. (But make no mistake, fundamentally and when looking a 6-12months out, current levels are very attractive.)

I will enter (probably pretty heavy) if the low 20s are seen in CHK.

Eased up on AAPL

I eased up more on AAPL. Utilizing this strength to sell most of my call options.

Everyone and their mother will be selling AAPL prior to the iPad sale, as Cramer and other pundits already instilled the thought throughout the investment community. What has me in the belief of 'sell-the-news' is that the current iPad demand is predicated on inventory builds to the Apple stores, Best Buy and pre-orders. The initial sales figures may not be as high as expectations have gotten.

None-the-less, as AAPL is consolidating or selling on the news, I will be a buyer of the Jan 2011 calls. (The strike price will depend on the level AAPL starts selling off.)

China in the Back of my Head

Over the past few months I have been noticing a consistent trend within media articles regarding the level of aggressiveness China is taking. The latest was their response to a very responsible comment from Australia's PM. (article)

For a country with the second largest economy in the world, such aggressiveness is not responsible.

As a matter of fact, as a country's role increases with respect to world affairs, people (in general, all over the world) expect more from this country. They expect a level of charity, a level of human rights and sophistication. (Just like an average person entering the public eye becoming a celebrity. Whether he/she likes it or not, they are now a role model and should act accordingly. But we know that doesn't always happen so smoothly.)

Their new found aggressiveness is in the back of my head as potential to de-rail global stability, let alone the global economy.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Keep an Eye on GOOG China

Apparently Google publishes when there are issues within China. This is a great way for investors in the US to monitor (at least at some level) Google's activity in China.

Mainland China service availability

Thoughts on IBM

Itching to go heavy IBM here, at least a heavy double up. There are plenty of reasons to wait, especially this week. Considering the Fed will stop its MBS purchasing program.

But I really like IBM here. It is consolidated, and looks to want to move. My only hesitation is above, in fear of the boarder market reaction.

I will add, then wait for the market reaction. Will continue to add if IBM declines further. (Not expecting 127 to be broken.)

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Trade Volume Going Up

World trade volume will apparently be up big. At least that is what the WTO says. (article) If this is the case, and I certainly believe it to be so, the best play are the transports. There is a reason why UNP is up so much, and staying lofty. But after the rails, the best play is NAT. The growth is not yet reflected in the stock price. That could be due to the general increase in number of vessels coming on line, but that should not alter their business model much. (management's letter)

I typically look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to get a feel of what is happening with global trade. The number of ships that have been coming on line over the last two years may have capped the index until there is a equilibrium achieved with the increased capacity. None the less, the suezmax tanker market appears stable, as per management, but so does the BDI supporting the claim.

And since NAT redistributes their increased revenue to shareholders, that above continues to add to the thesis for NAT as a member to the 'timeless portfolio'.

Friday, March 26, 2010


I eased up on some AAPL calls today. My trigger for an easing will be achieved after today, when the weekly Slow Stoch is calculated. It will be past the 80 mark. I plan on holding the rest until wed or so of next week, as it lingers past the 80 mark for a bit.

I want to stress, I will buy it back. I do not think its consolidation will be as severe as many others think after the iPad launch. The wind is too much at AAPL's back, w/respect to iPad (pre-orders) iPhone, iPod and especially Mac sales.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Interesting volume in SGG

SGG has been seeing its highest volumes over the past three trading days.

What this means, i do not know. But w/the extremely high volume are higher lows, while sugar is still in a very very oversold position.

I did add the other day, after my post that same day. When 55 is seen, I will unload that position, and probably at the 20SMA the rest of the position. (Although I would rather unload the second position around 60.)

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Cramer is wrong on GOOG

Cramer guesstimates that Google lost a potential $5B of China's Internet advertising dollars (expected to grow from 3-4B to 15-20B) in future revenue because it is 'out' of China. (video)

He is just wrong.

Google is not out of China. People can still search via Google in China, except their servers are in Hong Kong now, not mainland China. Google is still servicing a market. (article) Granted their Hong Kong based site can be blocked at anytime, like YouTube and Facebook are, but from all media accounts that I have been reading, this is not the case. In fact the only thing that I can see happening is that certain searches produce 'error messages'.

Based on this, I do not see how this is such a big deal. The hick up for GOOG will be the ad-network they developed in China which is seeking alternatives, and will unquestionably dent their progress there. I have also seen reports of the mobile companies halting the distribution of Android phones, which really only hurts the Chinese consumer, but dents the future earnings power of Google by not benefiting from the mobile web.

This entire event is a very real short-term mess for Google (and China). No question about it. The stock is correct to sell off. But Google is by no means completely isolated from the Chinese web market. That is just not true.

I repeat my thesis. Let people like Cramer keep being pseudo negativity (so he can be neither right or wrong), and as the stock gets oversold and the dust settles, this whole issue will become a non-event for Google.

Potential Trades

1. Sugar (SGG) - From what I gather via media searches, orders are being canceled by major buyers (i do not have the ability to access real-time commodity trades), hoping to catch the bottom.

Regardless of what is being traded, anytime I see things like this history has taught me the bottom is very near. Fundamentally, sugar production is up, but all the reports I have seen still indicate a deficit within the commodity. (meaning more demand than supply).

I bought it at higher levels, but I am strongly considering doubling up.

2. GOOG - Let the dust settle, but this is a buying opportunity. I can argue support via the technicals at current levels, but the media attention for this issue is too strong at the moment. Especially now that we have seen Android get affected by this. (China mobile operators are probably so pissed right now. There is no real competition for the iPhone in China. Good for AAPL and China Unicom.) I will be entering GOOG as oversold conditions develop, and the dust settles.

Monday, March 22, 2010

China, you f*cked up

China fucked up. They had a glorious opportunity to ease up, but they decided to play the party line. (article)

Google is not stupid. Nor is China, even though they look it right now. Look at what Google did thus far in the States, and is doing to spark innovation and progress within The States. If it was not for Google, there would be no serious threat to the iPhone. There would be no new competitor to the Telco/Cable companies. The retail consumer would still be wondering about Cloud Computing. Google can be doing the same there, but China decided to do without it.

Instead China will continue to rely on 2nd rate innovators, and basically copycat competition. (I think Google engineers are the best in the world. So much so, that I think they can take on the NSA, let alone Chinese engineers. I wouldn't want to fuck with them. They know the Internet better than anyone. That is why China should want them in the country to innovate.)

Whatever, Google is better off. IMO, China needs companies like Google, not the other way around. There is very little coming out of Chinese tech companies that is truly unique. I mean seriously now, the only reason why some are market leaders in China is because those companies are given that edge by the hand of Big Brother, not the invisible hand of the free market. I can not think of one Chinese company that has exported a truly unique technology. (The only one that will, but still remains to be seen, is BYD... Buffett's battery investment.)

There is a lot more coming out of Brazil. And that is why I like Brazil the most from all the emerging markets.

Trade (Confession) - C

I bought Citi today. (Feel dirty saying it :)

The chart looks interesting to me. Its consolidated and looks to want to break its long-term negative trend.

Since I like the technicals, I looked into the fundies, and this clip from Dick Bove (the Citi eternal bull) sold me on it. link
He indicates to wait, as the Gov. selling of warrents will cause the stock to decline. But since I like the technicals here, I bought an initial position, and will buy the remaining if the decline is seen.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Market Thought... making history

President Obama likes to make history. So much mis-information, childish behavior. The Tea-baggers were just ridiculous today. (I guess they only act to which their level of intelligence allows them to act.)

The futures are already reacting. As the markets ease from its overbought condition, I will begin adding.

scary (or interesting) stuff

Saw this article about a system that can help you decide on your next decision. The system is called Hunch.

What interests me is the potential for others to exploit the system. If there is a specific pattern for Hunch's ability to predict your decisions, and utilizes the info from Twitter (or potentially any other social medium), others who care enough, can utilize it to predict an opponents strategy.

Your own decisions are no longer secret. Its scary, or really interesting, that this can be automated.

(Although I must admit, I am not a believer in any system that profiles an individual. If a person knows he/she is being profiled, they can simply act differently.)

So next time you feel an Ad or consumer product pitch really hits home, to you personally, you now know why.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

NatGas - CHK

NatGas has been in a spiral, with limited support, especially coming out of what should have been a strong season.

IMO, this is a signal to pricing caps, for NatGas and will facilitate in the transition to use more of it. With price stability, the 'will' to use it will be more common place. But the vast supply will keep its price capped. (That is why I like KMP the most, the distributors are the key winners here.)

NatGas can bounce from here, but a conservative stance would be to play it at the horizontal support line, near its bottom. IMO, the best way to play the bounce would be via CHK, due to its large reserves. A declining NatGas would mean CHK goes down a bit more.

CHK could see 22, despite support at current levels.

I will pull the trigger on the trade if NatGas approaches the above support.

(And will purchase KMP if the market sells off on the Health Care push. There are just some utterly ridiculous notions regarding the domino effect if this bill passes. Do not let these people scare you. These people maybe right in the very short-term, but wrong in the mid/long-term. Profits drive stocks, and companies are in a great position to profit. The smell from Washington is not bad right now. There is finally some sense of leadership, and that certainty helps, not hurts markets.)

Friday, March 19, 2010


(apologies for not uploading the CHK chart last night... went out and was too tired by the time I got to a computer. I will post a NatGas and CHK technical assessment this weekend.)

I decided to re-adjust my IBM holdings. With all the fear mongering (CNBC is getting a bit ridiculous on it) going on via the 3.8% higher tax rate on investment income, dividend plays are and, will probably, take the most beating from the Health Care bill passing. That beating will be completely unjustified.

There are only two simple rules when trading/investing:

1. Don't lose money

2. Don't think about taxes in an investment strategy

(If taxes really mattered, there would be no day traders in this world as they are taxed the highest. Taxes are not at a crippling rate, I don't care how much the cry babies want to cry about it, their tears can be better spent crying about something else.)

I will reposition the long-term IBM holding to incorporate to total value amount of that position to the 'timeless' portfolio. The portolio includes IBM, BKE, NAT, KMP and F. (Will purchase IBM 120 Jan 2011 calls to maintain the equivalent upside exposure to IBM.)

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Trade - CHK

CHK looks very interesting here. But there is obviously major selling going on in the name. It looks like major holders are just throwing it away. Looking at NatGas, its understandable. NatGas looks to want to head toward the mid-3s, if not retest its low. Which could mean CHK tests 20ish.

Some major support is breaking, and w/the daily chart, already broke. (will post charts later today)

Will look to enter CHK around 22, or when I get the sense that NatGas is simply too low. (Fundamentally it is too low, but technically it can go lower. And to give credit to where credit is due, CHK management call the double bottom in NatGas months ago in their CC. Hence there decision to divest in some Oil drilling. But I don't care for their 'oil' drilling, I care for their NatGas prospects.)


Score baby. Found a way... I got it back.


Market Thought... conflicted

I stand conflicted. Looking at just the technicals, I can argue complacency and very overbought conditions, hence a needed pullback. Or SP500 to continue to move to 1200 or so.

Looking at the weekly chart, there is clear and relatively recent indications that the weekly 200 and 320 SMA act as support/resistance. If this is the case, then the SP500 has room to run.

Looking at the daily chart, there is a clear sense of complacency. The VIX is at the bottom end of its range.

On the fundamental side, we have a situation where the Fed will start to ease the purchases of MBS', essentially tightening very soon. And a health care bill that will most likely pass. I think the health care bill is a good thing, but Cramer already established a tone that will be negative if the bill passes. So it is hard not to assume a market pull back, however small it maybe, to occur as a worst case scenario.

I am unsure as to how to play it in the short term. (I did roll out my protection to the 120 SPY May Puts equivalent to the current value of my protection).

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Trades - SGG and PBR

1. SGG - I entered SGG today, but not for a day-trade. I plan on selling it between 60-62. IMO, it is too oversold, with some really heavy volume.

2. PBR - If your a fan of Fast Money, you would have heard the pounding of the fist for Oil. (Joe T. pushed the USO.) I looked at PBR, and think it can push 50 (probably 53) with bullish oil. In Nov 09 when oil was at the current level, PBR was at 53. With oil rising it should revisit these levels. (I would like to see PBR come in some before hand, but I don't think that will happen.)

Monday, March 15, 2010

Trades - SGG and AAPL

The most frustrating, inefficient method of trading is what I am doing right now. (And I thought I was already just 'getting by' before. Before I was limited in my day-trading capacity, but still very effective and able to make day-trades with out severe issues. Picking away a certain trades. But now, its a 'knife-in-a-machine-gun-fight'.)

For instance:

1. SGG is a buy right here. It could be a day-trade or a short-term trade. But it is very oversold, clearly very negative. (would like to have real-time info for this trade, so I am probably not going to take it. Last time I played SGG it turned out to be a day-trade, then it broke down to its current level)

2. AAPL - have been waiting to add, and now I did. I will continue to add Jan 2011 calls on weakness. (Would have liked real-time info to execute the options trade, but made do with a grossly inefficient options pricing guesstimate as per my Stockcharts and Yahoo's real-time quotes... awesome!)


My computer got versioned up to Windows XP, and it will not let me upload the most version of Java script to monitor real-time quotes.

I just lost one weapon (but one that I truly enjoy) to understanding market psychology. (watching the tape real-time, and witnessing how individual names are acting in relation to the market.)

this sucks.

'They' just made me less productive of a worker.

Instead of BS water cooler conversations breaks, I look at the market real-time. That is what makes me happy, not bullshit gossiping and non-value added activities. Everyone looses here. Got to find a way to get my real-time streamer back.

i am not happy today.

Sunday, March 14, 2010

the economy

If anyone has a question on how the economy is doing, just look at UNP. The stock is simply on a ripping.

What sticks out at me the most (other than the consistent and rapid rise from 60-72) is the DMI. It indicates a massive inflow to the name.

On Friday, the CEO indicated better-than-expected container growth, and a part of this inflow maybe due to the limited areas funds can now invest in a western rail road. (BNI being the other one, but got bought out by Buffett.)

If I was bearish on the economy, this chart would really make me re-evaluate my thesis.

Its too overbought for me to play it now, but am looking for an entry point.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Market Thought... testing

Testing 1150. If I were a bear, I would be uneasy. (But then again, at this point I would be extremely frustrated at the current rally.)

Here is what I plan on doing...

If the market decides to consolidate here, I will cover my protection around the 14SMA.

If the market does not consolidate here, and moves past 1150, I will close out my protection and just wait in the names I am currently long. I will sell some of the long position as they get overbought or individual triggers are met.


IBM looks to be starting a sizable move upward here. (I can not be too bearish on the market if I think a big name like IBM is about to do this. It would be a contradiction.) It may test 132-133 with this move.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Market Thought - mistake

I made a mistake. During this recent down turn I neglected to take into account all the patterns, and that neglect caused a false premise in my analysis of the market.

I just realized it today, hence my acknowledgement of it. Basically my market premise to protect was predicated on overbought conditions, crazy movements of the market (during the early Feb decline), sizable decline in the Vix, weakness in some individual names (which gained strength causing the market to fair much better than expected) and the long-term pattern of the SP500 daily chart.

What I failed to do, was assess the above with the pattern of the weekly SP500. If I did that, I probably would have removed my protection, (until this week). I assessed the weekly charts of the individual names that were weak, and the wkly charts seemed to have indicated a floor, but without the wkly SP500 chart, the more cautious approach was taken.

The weekly SP500 clearly shows the wkly 28 and 32SMA acting as support.

I highlight the most recognizable pattern.

So with that, I swallow my mistake. With that said, today was an interesting day, and a clear 'protect' signal was also given.

The Vix was up while the SP500 was up, not to mention the market is at a double top. So I did not get rid of my protection.

speculative - AXPW.ob

If anyone follows anything about batteries, they know about John Petersen and his blog. (really good info., started following him with his seeking alpha articles, but i prefer his older picture better:)

The man knows his stuff, and his persistence push of acid-lead batteries (aka AXPW.ob) has made me a follower of the name, despite my liking to lithium and SQM.

Today the stock is indicating a change in trend, and it looks to want to break from its multi-month downtrend. There could be a sizable spike in the name, and given its low level, I think it is worth the risk here.

Look how it is breaking from the 20 SMA, which has been consistently keeping the stock down. And in early Feb to present, there has been a stable consolidation. Could see 1.60 or even 2.00 if some positive info develops.

At the current state of the company, AXPW.ob is purely a trade.

FYI... my opinion is that SQM is the better investment, and AXPW.ob is purely speculative.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

A word on AAPL

So much talk regarding AAPL last week. IMO, all because of Cramer. There is no way around it, the man has the Soap Box to move certain aspects of the market, especially individual names.

I completely agree with the man on AAPL, and since he provided the catalyst to its upward momentum, here is how I plan on playing it. (I was going to wait for the momentum to start then provide this post, but Cramer quickened the process.)

I do not plan on selling it until the weekly charts tells me to sell it. When the Red line of the Slow STO moves above 80 and lingers for a week or two, I will sell some.

AAPL is cheap (was cheaper before, but in relation to its growth still relatively cheap). And with Friday's move, IMO, it started its momentum upward. Despite being overbought, on the daily, its attractive valuation and breakout will allow it to keep rising, while consolidating its overbought position as it rises. (this can happen)

With this in mind, I will be day-trading it, buying Jan 2011 AAPL 210 calls on any downward move of the stock.

Market Thought... not chasing

The market is too overbought.

With the market move, and my new target prices for the stocks I am looking for, a market move to the 200 SMA maybe unrealistic right now.

Fundamentally I am a market Bull, and the market sold off harder than I thought it would Jan/Feb given the earning reports. Although I was expecting a consolidation in Jan, the market was completely detached from the fundamental story. If the market now starts acting normally with respect to earnings power fundamentals, the downward move to the 200 SMA will be postponed.

So I will most likely close out my market protection upon the current overbought consolidation, then stay heavy in cash and trade around the names of interest. Then utilize that cash when we get that solid downward move.

The piece of data that caught my eye on Friday was that Consumer Credit was improving. (video) This would mean normalized earnings power should be used to value banks. My favorite is JPM on a pull back. But the Volcker rule would seriously effect its overall biz, so a play not having the Volcker rule as a 'gray cloud' depressing valuation, WFC would be the purer play on the consumer credit improvement. I would wait for a consolidation from the overbought condition from both JPM and WFC. For WFC my entry would be 27-28. For JPM my entry would be 41.

Friday, March 5, 2010

Market Thought... bi-polar

Just a quick market thought...

We go from 'sell everything' to 'buy everything' in a matter of days. I do not like getting caught up in this 'buy, buy, buy' or 'sell, sell, sell' mentality. (I just like utilizing it when I see it.)

Right now we are in the 'buy, buy, buy' mentality. Cramer even hyped up AAPL the other day for that very reason. (Don't get me wrong, I would like to thank him, as I am in the name, but its dangerous, especially when we are in such an inconsistent market.)

Many individual names are very overbought now, and regardless of the technicals, anytime I get the feeling of this 'buy, buy, buy' mentality I get uneasy. Especially when it is paired with a low and very oversold Vix.

I have limit order triggers on my long positions. I sightly increased my put protection. If limit orders get executed, great. If the market reaches 1140-1150, the orders should be executed, and I will effectively be short the market. (At that level, in the current mini-rally, we will be too overbought, for me to be interested in staying long many names.)

Thursday, March 4, 2010

New Targets

With the current market, I have to established new entry points for the names I want to go heavy in.

1. GOOG - 520 is definitely a floor. It may go to 530s with a declining market.

2. GS - around 157-158. (Some really nice action today.)

3. IBM - around 124. A case can be made that there is support here, but with a declining market a lower tide will lower all boats, and the 124 level is where the tide might take IBM.

4. Apple - This one is a bit tricky. I want to say the 204 level, but conservatively speaking its 200. (I will act on some at the 204 level.)

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Market Thought... up a notch

With the SP500 rising, and media complacency setting in, if I was cautious before, that cautiousness is only increasing. As the markets rise, my long positions seems to be getting reduced and my protection is becoming a market short.

Here are some patterns I am paying attention too:

Within the Vix, this hump in the Slow Stoch (highlighted within the box) suggests over the next couple of days we may see a spike.

The next is the SP500/Vix overlay chart that I consistently have up here. But this time, its flashing red.

The interesting aspect of this chart is how the Vix acts. It first uses the horizontal blue line as support, then the horizontal dotted red, then back to the blue line. But notice it tends to overshoot the horizontal blue line (captured w/in the circles).

I still believe there are plenty of bargains out there (i.e. IBM), but I also can not ignore the technicals.

Senator Jim Bunning...

You epitomize what is wrong with the Senate. (article)