Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Friday, August 22, 2014
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Since the launch of the iPhone aapl has followed a specific trend line. That trend line was breached once before in early 2012. Following exponential rise, there was an exponential decline of the same mangnitude below the trend line.
The line has been achieved about a month ago, and as of today, breached.
Due to aapl's overbought conditions and breach of long term trend, some caution is merited.
Fairly confident aapl will be the first trillion dollar company but like all good things, it will take time. Apple's trailing multiple is still fairly low for such a fast moving company. And is ridiculously low when factoring it's capital allocation programs, cash position, cash generation and market positions it's products command.
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Where oh where will you go?
The vix is nearing its pre-May support.
Will the old support hold or are the June / July more relevant?
If the Feds do not raise rates over the next 6-8 months an argument can be made for the latter.
Jobless claims, despite the est. miss, are still very healthy. If the treasury is down due to economic uncertainty, then lack of fed rate hikes make sense. But if the treasury is depicting the true geopolitical uncertainty risk, then the equity markets need to come down.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
So one of the top, if not THE top, VC firm (a16z) makes a splashy, media blitz-heavy investment into BuzzFeed. Great. Another high profile firm sees value in "new" media, and the investment thesis includes:
-distribution of content
Want to invest in a similar thesis, and are able to via public markets? Look at Yahoo.
Its got, and working on, all of the above. Sum-of-its-parts valuation places zero, zero, worth in a concept a16z just valued around a billion dollars.
A difference between Yahoo and BuzzFeed? Buzzfeed is heavily reliant on social network traffic, while Yahoo consistently ranks 1 or 2 amongst ComScore most visited properties. Yahoo mobile properties aren't too shabby either, with over 400 million users.
But of course, the street is a whore for momentum. So until Yahoo's transition starts to become evident, investors like Eric Jackson will keep shitting on Meyers. Funny thing about momentum whores, they tend to ignore the subtleties that create the momentum in the first place. For instance, Eric Jackson shat on Facebook just before it started its momentum. Piss poor timing.
Yahoo has made transition, and I am hoping its working. Previous earnings report didnt tell us much because Yahoo is not giving investors a breakdown between desktop vs mobile. But the pieces are in place for Yahoo to work again.
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Gotta give it to geopolitical uncertainties, numbers that should cause the teasury to rise, have little effect.
Nice print on the jobless claims, beating expectations and continuing the nice trend.
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
Wondering what happened that caused the market to spike down at 1:30pm.
1. US general killed, and other high ranking officers wounded, in Afghanistan. (News broke before 1:30)
2. Putin goes to Russian parliament to "deal with Western Sanctions". (Again, news broke before 1:30)
3. First female assistant coach in the NBA. (Markets don't know sexism.)
4. Small US military team entering Ukraine to assist with the crash site. This could lead to escalation and a reason to enter if anything should happen to them.
Sunday, August 3, 2014
twtr - looking for the 5sma and 42-43 horizontal support.
amzn - long term sma support.
ibm - interesting retracement. Should test the 197 level again, but 187-188 maybe first.
mon - at long-term support.
qcom - taking a beating, thanks to China's "monopoly" crack down, and low-end competition. Approaching levels that are of interest (high 15 trailing multiple). May see 67-69. (Makes for a nice entry near 69.)
Friday, August 1, 2014
Ever since the vix was near multi-year lows, I have been caustious on the market. The lack of appreciation to the geopolitical uncertainties was very evident. The middle east being systematically dismantled. Ukraine and Russia, with Russia kicking the G7 in the nuts and wondering why the world is isolating them. Israel and Gaza fighting a war on children. And the market-mechanical issue of a country default (w/ ~110b in external debt), the domino effect that are hard to ignore.
With the default as a catalyst, the negatives are at the forefront. The Vix was not a discounter of the above fears, seems like the treasury was playing that role.
Now the vix is testing the high-end of its current trading dynamic limit.
Depending on how much negative chatter is generated, the SP500 can see 1880-1890. (Effectively wiping away the market premium, and have a trailing PE closer to the normal 17 range.)
The current geopolitical events are easy to escalate, and the uncertainty can easily drive the markets lower. But the complacency that existed a few days ago is no more.