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Monday, April 30, 2012

some thoughts... JPM, SLB, AAPL, GOOG and QCOM

JPM - Looking to increase the position near low 42.  If the jobs data begins to improve, JPM will trade between 46-50.  If jobs data does not improve, JPM should trade near 46 because as the housing/mortgage market improve JPM's book value of around 46 continues to be justified.

SLB - Looks interesting here. Now that the fracking negativity is flushed out, and oil prices remain elevated, SLB should be able to maintain the 73 level. Even if SLB maintains its low-end trading multiple range (18 being a low-end trailing PE trading range), SLB will approach 76-77 as the quarter matures.
AAPL - Looking to add here.

GOOG - Looking to add near current level and near 580.

QCOM - I think QCOM is at least a 69-70 stock by the end of the year, but am looking to sell my current position between 66-67 (then re-enter after a consolidation). If QCOM doesn't yet reach 66, and sees between 63 and 62, I will add.

I still believe my current market thesis. If I get an opportunity to add to the above names, I will look to proportionately take out SPY puts for a hedge to the jobs data later this week.  (Although I am getting the feeling the market is front loading potentially negative news, and could rally on decent numbers.)

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