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Thursday, April 12, 2012

GOOG - pretty good

The numbers were pretty good. Google showed more cost control, and earnings leverage out side of Cost-per-click (CPC).

As expected, CNBC and the chatter is pretty much just focused on CPC, which is a shame because there are other leverages to earning that are pretty much being ignored. (Coincidentally management is hitting on this point right now. I wrote it before they were talking about it :)

From the better than expected numbers, Google has a new, higher, price range.

Because I think it was a decent-to-good quarter, GOOG should trade near 690. (This assumes a trailing multiple of 21, which is no multiple change from the last two quarters.)  As this new quarter (starting in April) matures, Google should approach the low/mid 700s.

When factoring today's quarter, Google's current trailing multiple is 19.7 (using a stock price of 651 and a non-gaap eps of 32.98). Its got room to run from here.

Obviously, my current stock prices will have to be divided by two, once the stock-split is completed.

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