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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Market Thought... the mo'mos

The momentum boys will start to get their groove back. All these characters care about is price action and technical set ups (no better case proves it then Apple last week), and the SP500 is about to recapture structural bullishness.

The main concern, just from this chart, was the 14SMA. But today, thanks to the bullishness of earnings overall (not just AAPL), the SP500 started to breach it. After the breach the market started to break through the 38SMA as well.

Structurally, the market looks good again.  And given the momentum of earnings, I do not know how the big boys will allow these contracted multiples (ie IBM, QCOM, AAPL, GOOG, SLB and many more) to remain.

If the technical set up holds, the big boys will err on the side of bullishness.

Obviously the 10yr yield is still causing some concern, and while it is moving up today, it will not see meaningful appreciation until the employment picture improves. If we get good employment data, the slogan will be 'long and strong' :)

The jobless claims have been so-so, trending upward slightly, but not too bad. The really jobs data point that can turn the 10yr sentiment quickly will be the monthly non-farm payroll on May 4th.

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