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Thursday, January 19, 2012

ouch GOOG (opportunity AAPL), nice IBM

GOOG taking a hit AH. (Not surprised. I understood its trading dynamic pretty well this go around.) The stock is starting to look attractive again with this level of decline, but I will dig into the numbers, and gain a proper assessment.

IBM is fairing much better. The market already discounted poor results, so the in line results are being treated nicely by the market. (They had a nice revenue beat. Looks like currency fluctuation did not hurt them this quarter.)

ps... don't tell anyone, but wanted to pass along some info on AAPL.  If Apple produces the streets estimates of $10 (which is reasonable, as it is 7.5% north of Apple's estimates) here is where it can trade:


It should trade to 437 with a trailing multiple of 14 (which is below its current trailing PE of 15.44).

If the eps comes in closer to the blogger estimates: (The real number is around 11.30, which is about 21% higher than the company's estimates. Not unrealistic considering previous beats by Apple and the market share gain of the iphone.)

the stock will trade around 450 with a trailing multiple of 14.

If AAPL declines because of GOOG, that may provide an opportunity to enter AAPL before it reports.

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