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Friday, January 6, 2012

GS downgraded to perform?

Wells Fargo put GS to market perform, and from what they released to the media thus far, does not indicate they took book value into account. (I did not see the full report.)

Wells target price of 95-105, implies a continued trading dynamic far below what Goldman's assets are worth.

(I also take issue with the wide price target range. A wide range is just lazy. I don't like lazy.)

Another interesting fact, GS was technically set up to test its upper trading range, from what I believe is it's bottoming process. Funny how this rating is announced during the precipice of this trading action.

I want to call bullshit on the analyst call, but I only have limited info right now. Obviously, I'm leaning toward the bullshit camp because the meaning of the report outputs do not jive with my assessment.

UPDATE: Seems like a coordinated effort today to lower expectations on GS. (Funny how it all comes in one day. You would think the SEC would look into things like this. That's just my opinion as an experienced Compliance Investigator for a highly regulated industry, along with a really good ability to dissect data :) Here are the technicals keeping a lid on GS. With out this pressure, GS was on the verge of testing its negative 3month resistance and even confirming its bottom if a breach was seen.

All today's action did was cause a delay. No structural damage was done to the stock, at least not yet. So now I will wait. But I stand by my thesis, GS will approach Book Value as the EU situation eases. (The play has never been an earnings or growth story, its a reversion to Book Value trade.)

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