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Sunday, January 29, 2012

Apple stock seriously discounting

If you hear anybody say, Apple's stock is priced for perfection or is about to hit the "laws-of-large-numbers", call bullshit, because the stock is already being discounted for a ton of negative things.

Everyone knows Apple continues to see very impressive growth, and the best way to show it is through a graph.  Asymco.com plotted the Net Sales and Earnings growth rates over a 5 year quarterly basis.

A stock is suppose to trade with a reflection of its growth. Looking at the below chart, Apple clearly is not.

Using the above data points, the trailing PE is incorporated below.



Despite all of Apple's growth, the market has been systematically discounting the stock.  However, from what we know of stock ownership, AAPL is still pretty heavily owned except from the value boys.

The above chart, with the market mechanic info of ownership, simply means new money is not being put to work within AAPL. 

Will the reduced multiple thesis change? I am betting it does.  Below 13, even without at a dividend Apple is just too inexpensive to ignore considering the potential of the mobile web.

In order for AAPL to see a trailing PE more in line with large cap stocks, it will need to offer a dividend, as other large cap stocks do, or develop a solid subscription service.

Apple has tremendous flexibility with a dividend. If Apple was to offer a 2% dividend at 450, and with 941M shares outstanding, it would be giving about $8.47B a year to share holders.  And if the value boys recognize the strong reoccurring revenue stream for the company, they will be far more inclined to participate. (A reoccurring revenue stream will allow them to believe the 'stickiness' of Apple's products, and the 'bubble' argument gets thrown out the window.)

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