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Monday, January 9, 2012

IBM trade

Due to the technical set up, I started to get back into IBM.

Technically it looks good here for an initial entry. Sitting on daily support, as well as weekly support from the weekly 20SMA.

From a trading dynamic perspective, IBM has a habit of running into earnings then selling off.  Its multiple is trading higher then usual, but I have spoken about the expected expansion of multiple even before Buffett's purchases. (They are not Oracle or HP. IBM takes share and innovates.)

I plan on selling this position near 187, before they report. (See my 'forward PE' link under Links, and look for IBM.)

(After they report, the market may get spooked due to currency fluctuations. Last time the Euro saw a 13% move, IBM saw a 2% revenue hit. There is only so much large companies can protect themselves. Then analysts started spewing garbage about IBM's performance. Unless IBM was on the right side of the Hedge, and gained more than lost.)

If IBM sells off before earnings, I am prepared to add. Its low end push can be mid 170s.

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