1. PBR indicated that they will look to increase gas prices. This is interesting, as they have not increased prices since 2009. The statement gains more credibility when looking at the other inflationary measures Brazil has taken. (I posted an article on the tumblr blog regarding increase in tax to credit to ease inflation, and this may allow PBR to increase fuel prices.) The Brazilian gov is smart, they know two years of no price hike is not sustainable when PBR's own forecast called for oil to between 65-85. (Although a revised forecast is in the 90s.) With out a price hike, I was waiting for 36-37 to get back into the name. But now, I am looking to get in sooner, probably around mid 37.
3. The USO is at its 20SMA. Next stop a bounce or a breakdown to the 38SMA.
Oil should be pressured due to the dollar rising. The question is how low? High 90s, for the seems reasonable to me.