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Thursday, April 28, 2011

some thoughts... LLNW, Market thesis

1. LLNW - Akami is taking a beating. Unless LLNW indicate otherwise on May 5th, they will reap the aftermath. If it wasn't for AKAM, LLNW was actually looking interesting. It broke from the Monday negativity, and looked like it wanted to go higher (if left on its own accord).  Below is a two day, 5min chart, highlighting the negativity of Monday, the early morning washout today and the shift in trend (near 1pm).

2. Market thesis - My current market thesis is obviously wrong. I am obviously missing something. I do not think the market is inefficient by moving up due to inexpensive levels. Maybe I am allowing specific data points and macro effects to corrupt my market thesis. I will have a detailed 're-evaluation' post tomorrow. I will swallow my mistake and eat my protection losses. I will cover all my market protection tomorrow because I do not have the proper basis for the protection. Instead of being protected, I will ease up on exposures that are very overbought.

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