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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

some thoughts and charts

F - Looking to unload some in the low 16s, near the 98SMA. I think the SMA will act as short-term resistance.  On the consolidation, or light pull back, I will not hesitate to re-enter. (I plan on holding the position as a future dividend play.)  This is the one industry where supply constraints were needed to slow down production, and prevent price deterioration.  Profitability should be really good across the industry, especially with the lean Ford.

IBM - I have liked this thing since the 120s, and the business momentum is not changing my feelings towards it.  The technical set up makes me want to buy more if 162-163 is seen, and unload some if 166-167 is seen. I will act accordingly dependent on how it moves.

LLNW - As it approached 7.25, I sold half my position (at 7.19), as I indicated.  It is now consolidating, and am looking to re-enter if it sees around 6.70.

MF - With the sizable move the other day my discipline forced me to sell half of my position. It appears to be consolidating. I am looking to re-enter around 8.40. (If I think it can see 8 again via the intraday movement, I will wait for 8. But if I am getting caught up with work and meetings, I may have to settle for 8.40.)

PBR - I unloaded yesterday afternoon. This is still a favorite of mine, but it was just overbought.  (I am also not a fan of oil at these prices.) I want to re-enter near the 50SMA, around 39. Don't know if I would be so luck though. Re-entry will depend on price action after a consolidation.

AAPL - (obviously have to talk about Apple :)  I already posted the weekly chart on it this morning, and think 330 will act as support.  It can break down to 310 to the weekly 38 SMA, but think about what that would mean.  It would mean AAPL will have a trailing PE of 15-16 after they report the current quarter. This trailing PE does not exclude its $45 dollar-a-share cash position.

Apple is ridiculously inexpensive right now, but it keeps getting punched.  One wonders if the market is re-pricing AAPL to trade at a lower multiple? The thought has crossed my mind, but then I remember the awesome demand of the iPad 2, the nice demand of the iPhone 4 via Verizon, the continued demand of iPhone 4 via ATT, the awesome demand of their computers, the supply chain improvement to supply the iPad 2 demand and the other little things that keep running through my mind (like the AppleTV demand, Mac Store, etc).  Then I ask myself, will its patterned trailing PE of 20-21 decline to 15-16 with such growth still ahead of it? (And I am not even touching the R&D chatter that should be product lines 1-2 years out.)

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