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Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Market Thought... tricky

During Cramer's MadMoney rant, he mentioned a growing consensus of a global economic slowdown. (The new CNBC video format is simply kick ass, allowing me to post the specific section of the link. Kudos CNBC, well done.)

This is the first I heard about a global slow down. There have been numerous economist taking down US GDP, and the BRICs trying to ease their inflation, which would obviously conclude to a relative slow down.  But I do not see it through my indicators, yet. (There are signs within certain commodity ETFs I follow, but I am attributing relative weakness to China's lack of buying. For instance, copper is still stock-piled in China, and they have not used the excess inventory.  They have a housing glut, so if they do not need to use it, so be it.) Company profits, should not be affected by this type of stuff.

This is where it gets tricky.

The SP500 is sitting on an interesting area of support.  Its the low end channel range with a slew of SMA support. The market has room to go lower as per the channel.

If earnings act as the catalyst, the market may bounce from these levels or a little lower (horizontal dotted blue line).

If Cramer's assertion is correct, and perception by the big-boys of a slowed global economy takes hold, the market can start their correction. (The slow down thesis is most likely fueled by the ending of QE2, and the emerging markets appropriately acting to combat inflation. They will be wrong with this assumption. These actions are taken because economies have improved and are growing.)

If the big-boys want to ignore the earnings story, and a negative sentiment takes hold, there is support around 1260 via the daily and weekly charts.  The daily is highlighted with the 150 SMA, and that is near the level where the market bottomed due to the 'nuclear melt down' threat.  The weekly support is showcased by the 28 SMA.

Its a bit tricky right now.

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