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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Market Thought... conflicted

I stand conflicted. Looking at just the technicals, I can argue complacency and very overbought conditions, hence a needed pullback. Or SP500 to continue to move to 1200 or so.

Looking at the weekly chart, there is clear and relatively recent indications that the weekly 200 and 320 SMA act as support/resistance. If this is the case, then the SP500 has room to run.

Looking at the daily chart, there is a clear sense of complacency. The VIX is at the bottom end of its range.

On the fundamental side, we have a situation where the Fed will start to ease the purchases of MBS', essentially tightening very soon. And a health care bill that will most likely pass. I think the health care bill is a good thing, but Cramer already established a tone that will be negative if the bill passes. So it is hard not to assume a market pull back, however small it maybe, to occur as a worst case scenario.

I am unsure as to how to play it in the short term. (I did roll out my protection to the 120 SPY May Puts equivalent to the current value of my protection).

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