tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-73452777452130124702024-03-05T17:40:52.868-05:00echotoallunderstanding the psychology of behaviorechotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.comBlogger1696125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-70916084537809931142016-06-27T22:11:00.001-04:002016-06-27T22:11:54.073-04:00Trades - $aapl $amzn $bac $ibm $twtr<div>The collapse in the pound really fucked shit up for multinationals. All will see a hiccup over the next quarter or two. Regardless, there is still value in the names, and approaching technical inflection points. </div><div><br></div>aapl - very oversold, and near support. May flush to low90/high80s.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhouzx4Qx_SBqTKGqll96qvPqCEMrUpSvXBHR9-0DAjRezvsS9aVzfvP-882sZZyN3XFCSLLwnOlwJsTvO0yi9C8b4QKTgr3Gjr6NOHW8dZoK9etP0TXuE1Ya_gXjiHfhqytCY1W3lP8hOD/s640/blogger-image-158385633.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhouzx4Qx_SBqTKGqll96qvPqCEMrUpSvXBHR9-0DAjRezvsS9aVzfvP-882sZZyN3XFCSLLwnOlwJsTvO0yi9C8b4QKTgr3Gjr6NOHW8dZoK9etP0TXuE1Ya_gXjiHfhqytCY1W3lP8hOD/s640/blogger-image-158385633.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirSoeqQ1mPH9SWMCIA3N_slX10NoYGNaz89jjMiqtUvt8-gwzfSVGA-pX30YUgdVddTbA5gRgyo27RtWyJJ81T2xNI68Y2Dnj6ox3PMioJwfuVCR6yrz6QlJDYQFn2uARmzeogAF0nn4Do/s640/blogger-image-842063096.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirSoeqQ1mPH9SWMCIA3N_slX10NoYGNaz89jjMiqtUvt8-gwzfSVGA-pX30YUgdVddTbA5gRgyo27RtWyJJ81T2xNI68Y2Dnj6ox3PMioJwfuVCR6yrz6QlJDYQFn2uARmzeogAF0nn4Do/s640/blogger-image-842063096.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">amzn - resilient in this market, but they will take a hit on their revenues. Initial entry between 650-675. Heavy entry between 600-625.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmjLpSYycmU293gHpilzYw9E_d0D3CRaS1MvB3_FmBXRtxwEXmUivh4X9NieiX96mjzP7tdRtlZyA2imWKjRNHNhJGk3iaOpH3BST0efP9mKVRhdfZ-dNhTLbgG96YOhkvst_lFe-FhHMI/s640/blogger-image-2007785410.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmjLpSYycmU293gHpilzYw9E_d0D3CRaS1MvB3_FmBXRtxwEXmUivh4X9NieiX96mjzP7tdRtlZyA2imWKjRNHNhJGk3iaOpH3BST0efP9mKVRhdfZ-dNhTLbgG96YOhkvst_lFe-FhHMI/s640/blogger-image-2007785410.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">bac - sell it off in pieces and the stock jumps to $16-17. With the bulk of its biz in America, thanks to sentiment in UK and decline in treasury yield, the stock declines. May go to $8, with no basis on the fundamentals. But may be at support when arbitrarily looking at the log chart.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvS4-63K-xP6uGFqU-d-bgL_uTW9ha-KeqFmdM6-4g-K7JXxDhl4JSiRBSsrNn6JAOpfXie4gdfphmn7_aqase1jYuv2hyvtATLPlPLMcxVM8asnQuXLhT4fcJ8Qit_BydNT4yQNBbjyMB/s640/blogger-image-551727146.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvS4-63K-xP6uGFqU-d-bgL_uTW9ha-KeqFmdM6-4g-K7JXxDhl4JSiRBSsrNn6JAOpfXie4gdfphmn7_aqase1jYuv2hyvtATLPlPLMcxVM8asnQuXLhT4fcJ8Qit_BydNT4yQNBbjyMB/s640/blogger-image-551727146.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOzdDRG4Aa4EmZdFbr8n5wGVfrBK8sNeyn2eEI3dzH70_wqKcwcNIHFK3cBNkJf5ksR9Eaj0Qf0P8VodV7pa3buG_M_yNOSXMe06y1FYhpE76EpS7GJLLdhAAqe83qIr9SfHArjO39omu-/s640/blogger-image--1840513067.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOzdDRG4Aa4EmZdFbr8n5wGVfrBK8sNeyn2eEI3dzH70_wqKcwcNIHFK3cBNkJf5ksR9Eaj0Qf0P8VodV7pa3buG_M_yNOSXMe06y1FYhpE76EpS7GJLLdhAAqe83qIr9SfHArjO39omu-/s640/blogger-image--1840513067.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">ibm - scale in digital ad biz and health will begin to matter, but OMG the currency hit they will take.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAhPKWD5qa5a2tPezegtOSfCkjnd0DaQnGRggF75lzwQDqOu8VKUfg7nzkY3TogfT8jpPI8vP4SQY-qHaK9yXyBIdffpU0jPaj2mu9OU-jQJHTvZw04hcCydtrQnAgafzxjR3BcR-ET9cK/s640/blogger-image-1493284639.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAhPKWD5qa5a2tPezegtOSfCkjnd0DaQnGRggF75lzwQDqOu8VKUfg7nzkY3TogfT8jpPI8vP4SQY-qHaK9yXyBIdffpU0jPaj2mu9OU-jQJHTvZw04hcCydtrQnAgafzxjR3BcR-ET9cK/s640/blogger-image-1493284639.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">twtr - stickers and fun stuff matter for engagement and new demographic of users. Now that these are rolling out, so will other engagment friendly things like live video filters. I am so bullish on them now. Seriously. This is their fundamental inflection point. TWTR has a dedicated-intellectual core user. They need to expand the demographic. Fun-to-use expands demographic.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl9kweb6gwi05OObF8i_4_UFgeJKlP1gN3VoFYYSuVcGEFJLtBDVT7uCbYXIc15UX13H9m6UcAh05TqIEslDqaq_3MH8MjtnzAD8EZGFwOPg-_YzGGgsKwLcsznEeaKWaCFfOOBnXMOeh7/s640/blogger-image--1559319275.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl9kweb6gwi05OObF8i_4_UFgeJKlP1gN3VoFYYSuVcGEFJLtBDVT7uCbYXIc15UX13H9m6UcAh05TqIEslDqaq_3MH8MjtnzAD8EZGFwOPg-_YzGGgsKwLcsznEeaKWaCFfOOBnXMOeh7/s640/blogger-image--1559319275.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br><div><br></div></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-26244947438793752272016-06-26T18:11:00.001-04:002016-06-27T00:30:56.079-04:00Market Thought... Political Risk causing real economic hiccupsThe implications of brexit will already be severe. The currency moves alone will mess with all multi-national revenues. The companies will also not wait from the Leave camp to straighten their shit out. Finance jobs are already leaving, so are auto jobs. The Gov has two years to leave, barring parliment votes against the leave. Because of all the complex issues, and the seemingly lack of preparation (and flat out lies) from the Leave camp, the UK looks to be in for a lost 2-10 years.<div><br></div><div>The market seems to be punishing the Leave camp, and will continue to do so, especially since a slow down awaits. But the markets are not trading like the EU will disintegrate, and i tend to believe the market on this one. The vix is simply not as high as the past concerns with a disintegrated EU. </div><div><br></div><div>No question the EU has flaws, but it was easer to see a country with out the Euro vote against the EU vs a country that has adopted the Euro. Example: Greece. A country's people suffered the most of all member states, yet they chose to stay.<br><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg35-BTzJbD37zUnkw07tL25jvOEA3LR3ieKNI6jDeUHmdEWmIr7X1C62PS0HMoZ3L-MEuB2vu8K3rSA1-Fy0d0OSu7ksK4lC5TPfjZ-8z3RfNAf7xnLvNXxR79on1jUAjAZmBHQ6DN25Dj/s640/blogger-image--1570419568.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg35-BTzJbD37zUnkw07tL25jvOEA3LR3ieKNI6jDeUHmdEWmIr7X1C62PS0HMoZ3L-MEuB2vu8K3rSA1-Fy0d0OSu7ksK4lC5TPfjZ-8z3RfNAf7xnLvNXxR79on1jUAjAZmBHQ6DN25Dj/s640/blogger-image--1570419568.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQp_FEJxcAC1IkAo42vG7nyG9LIKAQFVXaYkmkw4IKptJeg13hyphenhyphen6e-Eia6Zyr5pxummHUL7Ae_DfLZ7FsoSa9J-OgHE5MSjltvL4LSwcWyTUhXNYFwbYytdbJFUSM7eGeaPoYTQGv7sKh_/s640/blogger-image--949458746.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQp_FEJxcAC1IkAo42vG7nyG9LIKAQFVXaYkmkw4IKptJeg13hyphenhyphen6e-Eia6Zyr5pxummHUL7Ae_DfLZ7FsoSa9J-OgHE5MSjltvL4LSwcWyTUhXNYFwbYytdbJFUSM7eGeaPoYTQGv7sKh_/s640/blogger-image--949458746.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCRZhW4mApJoTrsZCj2Uq1jdR26seduAjzHdl8OcfpNH_LEpvWSYYAAhpUcm8VUqEsECH2Et_lt04PgJz50_P6F9ckUlaXwcE6EQtRFeTHtfTfK9a4O7iS7DPIVoohHz6t7-tkmvyjWGWO/s640/blogger-image-175046428.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCRZhW4mApJoTrsZCj2Uq1jdR26seduAjzHdl8OcfpNH_LEpvWSYYAAhpUcm8VUqEsECH2Et_lt04PgJz50_P6F9ckUlaXwcE6EQtRFeTHtfTfK9a4O7iS7DPIVoohHz6t7-tkmvyjWGWO/s640/blogger-image-175046428.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_1cwKcfsnlKlFMBgpx8PYXf4qPcLF8YOalDoyer75FES7emkWIs36Y-j7qn-EGEAKGyWFyXX5WOYPcdZ1ERV2PP9L2IDCS0OqV5lN-dT2ldcdrkVtJgFq2EL9pRZHqcg1m8joOwyyRFg7/s640/blogger-image--509171996.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_1cwKcfsnlKlFMBgpx8PYXf4qPcLF8YOalDoyer75FES7emkWIs36Y-j7qn-EGEAKGyWFyXX5WOYPcdZ1ERV2PP9L2IDCS0OqV5lN-dT2ldcdrkVtJgFq2EL9pRZHqcg1m8joOwyyRFg7/s640/blogger-image--509171996.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvqYirUAR5ty8z86h31T4sgguuuWRlvEICqntfUH7McNP9ZN4K2ihs3rEHhNSZ5cFenCTj3jmOpxekzL9qRPEjGJB4RZd86hZvRcUGFEOV1a9BjMl0avHsMNrrRCRmDdgAeMPe0D3g1G6S/s640/blogger-image-704680069.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvqYirUAR5ty8z86h31T4sgguuuWRlvEICqntfUH7McNP9ZN4K2ihs3rEHhNSZ5cFenCTj3jmOpxekzL9qRPEjGJB4RZd86hZvRcUGFEOV1a9BjMl0avHsMNrrRCRmDdgAeMPe0D3g1G6S/s640/blogger-image-704680069.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-3431451849621800012016-06-14T00:36:00.001-04:002016-06-14T00:36:49.338-04:00Charts - $spy $fb $sqMarket is held hostage to the Brexit polls until the 23rd. <div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqdcUFpAzVf2oorsFMIG4pEU970vTg7hzru5R9vzz1QRP9STYNPPFPTLaUlWYibORtIkAwKxjFqQZl8Q-Xh_1XOF1l88q13qqcB06weGbkqMyajIU-guNUQxvOajt6iaRAhb7Ga8R5o-Ct/s640/blogger-image--772139969.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqdcUFpAzVf2oorsFMIG4pEU970vTg7hzru5R9vzz1QRP9STYNPPFPTLaUlWYibORtIkAwKxjFqQZl8Q-Xh_1XOF1l88q13qqcB06weGbkqMyajIU-guNUQxvOajt6iaRAhb7Ga8R5o-Ct/s640/blogger-image--772139969.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$fb to 102 or 95?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpHIPGH1HaJm24vvP9KaV4V5mMmuMHytdwLMI_3R-mAPt-8AL2N2m4g99EnMLsQux7HTyulSu64DkgdcblmBaJ-1iHN7ChOuCoF1NjbTLK1viQeofDVVXPJvjlKbzU8C_TaMrfpxfOuCdQ/s640/blogger-image-1814184274.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpHIPGH1HaJm24vvP9KaV4V5mMmuMHytdwLMI_3R-mAPt-8AL2N2m4g99EnMLsQux7HTyulSu64DkgdcblmBaJ-1iHN7ChOuCoF1NjbTLK1viQeofDVVXPJvjlKbzU8C_TaMrfpxfOuCdQ/s640/blogger-image-1814184274.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQB2mGYF2mA_bgQyVaCqyrtYsTFHRxr-0BhutcvSCBWXgpUxT0axF8E_7iwb7RGdgWU-QdxvTQK2zuW5NDJstslTR3m61LKF5HJIbnEFXYRxC0UU4YNyYSXCoqlaiUf1yAr-ZkFel_rKaw/s640/blogger-image--179488261.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQB2mGYF2mA_bgQyVaCqyrtYsTFHRxr-0BhutcvSCBWXgpUxT0axF8E_7iwb7RGdgWU-QdxvTQK2zuW5NDJstslTR3m61LKF5HJIbnEFXYRxC0UU4YNyYSXCoqlaiUf1yAr-ZkFel_rKaw/s640/blogger-image--179488261.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">$sq if it holds it would be nice and bullish. But then again its a Dorsey production. (Im already long, looking to add.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHBxNtVbETUmkR5Q2x1QlvXBjWk_3ZGXX_ISEUpKNQiszjN6-iiLPNpI18700kDeOaJUU_mkoFbpBl5oXTdhOFAOoZkrakajSm-YFWLSNQaebIjq6BzznKJBffgcxDA_138tOKP2IRJWsY/s640/blogger-image-1192606886.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHBxNtVbETUmkR5Q2x1QlvXBjWk_3ZGXX_ISEUpKNQiszjN6-iiLPNpI18700kDeOaJUU_mkoFbpBl5oXTdhOFAOoZkrakajSm-YFWLSNQaebIjq6BzznKJBffgcxDA_138tOKP2IRJWsY/s640/blogger-image-1192606886.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-7252382351310245762016-06-10T09:59:00.001-04:002016-06-10T09:59:02.070-04:00Market Thought... Negative yield vortex $spy $vix $tnxSP500 at daily support.<div><br><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjapjXCxpX6WWl_Kq1VB266r5N7J24OldHhN3Gg_Kdbbojh4hszopJkMsz3U_20TzOrXaFcQe3iNZiUuzWlUGeHf4jniEN1B7Cw1jtx-ensbrI_-iNY4xpmfcbimSLsNLciRjH2olEmqgIM/s640/blogger-image-1270066817.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjapjXCxpX6WWl_Kq1VB266r5N7J24OldHhN3Gg_Kdbbojh4hszopJkMsz3U_20TzOrXaFcQe3iNZiUuzWlUGeHf4jniEN1B7Cw1jtx-ensbrI_-iNY4xpmfcbimSLsNLciRjH2olEmqgIM/s640/blogger-image-1270066817.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">But $tnx broke support.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3nX5yOBJInAuq9plVclBsRaOS7p3SIWHs8OAxJtLBzyTNBLKRZ1Fol9l1AJ-FPA7EifKpHFKny4WcKnLya5kOogD_ZB7RnUHiw5hev5f678Dv0e2sFXEZKl4z-zwDfo00TtxmMnbmM5AH/s640/blogger-image-187359629.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3nX5yOBJInAuq9plVclBsRaOS7p3SIWHs8OAxJtLBzyTNBLKRZ1Fol9l1AJ-FPA7EifKpHFKny4WcKnLya5kOogD_ZB7RnUHiw5hev5f678Dv0e2sFXEZKl4z-zwDfo00TtxmMnbmM5AH/s640/blogger-image-187359629.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Vix indicates a move to 18 before market flushes out. (Higher high trend since April.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3Sv7elWeQUwNkczhwNg5UOJ_CaBk8psBATSJnhCYTE7J8QzV7G2nK1oqpgLAjm__vQbJq_HNGkQ2iBTi6VQK94Ejc2cUNsDbQO3hgYahB3i2uVskhOnaaTRT1_PmrXK38JpX3BBkcOwi0/s640/blogger-image-947761852.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3Sv7elWeQUwNkczhwNg5UOJ_CaBk8psBATSJnhCYTE7J8QzV7G2nK1oqpgLAjm__vQbJq_HNGkQ2iBTi6VQK94Ejc2cUNsDbQO3hgYahB3i2uVskhOnaaTRT1_PmrXK38JpX3BBkcOwi0/s640/blogger-image-947761852.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Plenty of SP500 support near 2070, and via monthly 2050</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL1WYGpwwxWtV5mxGSk0ZV4t_C9Edy2D7wah_OfXDWGexNPgdLpfk0YMKf2xb1hX7y0wfpWb0x0T6L6OEut82EBwoyQUL8Q51HqHvKR-rQgJBGf1YV4FnvxDvErQDvfQOOn5qFSbda4lBo/s640/blogger-image-839961555.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL1WYGpwwxWtV5mxGSk0ZV4t_C9Edy2D7wah_OfXDWGexNPgdLpfk0YMKf2xb1hX7y0wfpWb0x0T6L6OEut82EBwoyQUL8Q51HqHvKR-rQgJBGf1YV4FnvxDvErQDvfQOOn5qFSbda4lBo/s640/blogger-image-839961555.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-66641148048340924272016-06-09T22:56:00.001-04:002016-06-09T23:09:16.235-04:00Charts - $bac updatedThe 10yr yield correlation slowly breaking with bac having a premium.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMvojxEmd0UwlaaEbxNxG18OLxM9Mr-yM01V_Vrx2_HItkiHILk6qRcplSCxXQERJ-tc0zyQgaXKZxUPfcgzvNW28gSsPFmFSGUtpizrwgfAOp_ohsRPhA_ZHShtSxw6f7ofEhp6o06hyphenhyphenx/s640/blogger-image--601599806.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMvojxEmd0UwlaaEbxNxG18OLxM9Mr-yM01V_Vrx2_HItkiHILk6qRcplSCxXQERJ-tc0zyQgaXKZxUPfcgzvNW28gSsPFmFSGUtpizrwgfAOp_ohsRPhA_ZHShtSxw6f7ofEhp6o06hyphenhyphenx/s640/blogger-image--601599806.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Makes sense given the risk to tangible book value has significantly mitigated this quarter. Oil is at 9-12 month highs, and consequently so are Junk bonds.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCiBWEM0AZ9pxdG-r_ik0hR-VjuJfJBu_EeMRyLzZoe8U_dhSwZBqfTQIrE_d93tZ5qmTSjRM3zycsL57Gqq_R1ueVwfkGuaPIwYttPrptvHjPLrFdvfIkbJfMh6jaRCCOW48auqc5OSi-/s640/blogger-image-1258567486.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCiBWEM0AZ9pxdG-r_ik0hR-VjuJfJBu_EeMRyLzZoe8U_dhSwZBqfTQIrE_d93tZ5qmTSjRM3zycsL57Gqq_R1ueVwfkGuaPIwYttPrptvHjPLrFdvfIkbJfMh6jaRCCOW48auqc5OSi-/s640/blogger-image-1258567486.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRlTV5II2EnFLDMmtFayU-VjKuNMIN3w7KUcBuI5HrVSU1TP7A2MO6o8pADMEsZlyc_0i3H0u0Gs0nduOrgtFcgU12rW1wdJL2UELMGHrVdJfHyJh8ZZzab0hqSZo1A8oCGd2pl5F_hbwh/s640/blogger-image-1785530354.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRlTV5II2EnFLDMmtFayU-VjKuNMIN3w7KUcBuI5HrVSU1TP7A2MO6o8pADMEsZlyc_0i3H0u0Gs0nduOrgtFcgU12rW1wdJL2UELMGHrVdJfHyJh8ZZzab0hqSZo1A8oCGd2pl5F_hbwh/s640/blogger-image-1785530354.jpg"></a></div></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBrB5Hdl8wXAyKizBjqEk_CqLWh2xtUol6T39y4dirI-JIDU6ynAfbnSSQ1jlhFzPx9MG4IzaXpgQMvmT7vjyyaSImoHsTkdFL4Fomqb_XHhSco2BQdeJopErOtmZCikpY5TOJiSb6Cdbu/s640/blogger-image-1343055031.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBrB5Hdl8wXAyKizBjqEk_CqLWh2xtUol6T39y4dirI-JIDU6ynAfbnSSQ1jlhFzPx9MG4IzaXpgQMvmT7vjyyaSImoHsTkdFL4Fomqb_XHhSco2BQdeJopErOtmZCikpY5TOJiSb6Cdbu/s640/blogger-image-1343055031.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The expectation is that tangible book remains in tact at 16.20. If tbv continues its 2yr trend, it should increase a bit.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">While treasuries are depressed, GDP Now is still elevated at 2.5%. And bac is trading 12% below tbv.</div><br></div><br><div><br></div><div><br></div></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-69566652467300340782016-05-23T23:24:00.001-04:002016-05-23T23:24:18.225-04:00Charts - $amzn supportAMZN may look to find support near 675-680.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8hRN5aRDnA09mYzfD0L1V84Qgbr8j8kVOiC2hCiF4n7TW-H5MCFUIy3Q8_fviQuuITKa48sQp9rrmFuSGB6v1KaYcKCcjEldA5lpXQ3awAn13-5SV6Ac2I2Lx14l2cH2v9doTdogGQrsL/s640/blogger-image--704034598.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8hRN5aRDnA09mYzfD0L1V84Qgbr8j8kVOiC2hCiF4n7TW-H5MCFUIy3Q8_fviQuuITKa48sQp9rrmFuSGB6v1KaYcKCcjEldA5lpXQ3awAn13-5SV6Ac2I2Lx14l2cH2v9doTdogGQrsL/s640/blogger-image--704034598.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDj0q82aJ6C38Tngq2clBgpM8Boe5pDOz5vhJzlKHfyAHaCiZAYlCjVSnDQBzTigfHCZ7FrXx8z6lTzjqQ-8c2Ch5kPsfz52HDTsVCkwLkl0pqGdsRjAmVZFS8WwDxVq3dPavd1b2Hxhz8/s640/blogger-image-571982841.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDj0q82aJ6C38Tngq2clBgpM8Boe5pDOz5vhJzlKHfyAHaCiZAYlCjVSnDQBzTigfHCZ7FrXx8z6lTzjqQ-8c2Ch5kPsfz52HDTsVCkwLkl0pqGdsRjAmVZFS8WwDxVq3dPavd1b2Hxhz8/s640/blogger-image-571982841.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This assumes a run of the mill pull back. If it breaks 675, the daily 32 sma should see a nice bounce, given the hugely positive sentiment. </div><br></div><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-87584416557059246282016-05-22T19:23:00.001-04:002016-05-22T20:05:04.561-04:00Negative $aapl chatter summed upSome negative chatter has flared up. <div><br></div><div>1. Apple's lacking in the AI game.</div><div><br></div><div>Maybe true, but AI is a back end application that Apple would never speak to either way. Obvious comparisons to Echo and Google's I/O are relevant but skewed. Apple made recent (2015) acquisitions in AI that seem specific to Siri: VocalIQ for speech and Emotient for emotional understanding. Also, since late 2014, Apple has been boosting its voice research team to help with speech recognition. <span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">During this years WWDC we need to see the fruits of the merger and research team. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Apple has made voice control popular to the masses, and its not asleep at the wheel.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">2. Operational structure is not conducive for services</span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><font face="Helvetica Neue Light, HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif">A significant argument has been made by Stratechery (Ben Thompson) regarding this negative. (Om Malik had similar sentiment.) The premise of the sentiment is built around web-site beta-testing ideology. Multiple beta testing via select users to find optimized layouts</font><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">. Apple was born in the personal computer age, where life cycles were +5yrs. Their culture of careful design and device longevity is very much indicative of this, and probably optimized for their functional operating structure. </span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">iTunes became a behemoth despite the lack of web-style beta testing, and it has done so while being consistently criticized. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">A lot of Apple's services success speaks more to the default nature from the iphone. As some services start to go cross-platform, a legitimate case can be made for web-style beta testing. I am not sure why these test can not be built into the functional operational structure, as part of decision data points. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">(My own opinion is that some services should be let loose and become cross-platform, as itune. Open imessage, icloud and payments. But that may very well require operational changes.)</span></div><div><font face="Helvetica Neue Light, HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div><font face="Helvetica Neue Light, HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif">The chatter seems to have manifested into a full blown doom scenarios, as is so often when an influencer writes a timely piece that resonates. (CNBC seems to lach onto the negative articles fromperceived influencer fan boy/girls.) But taking a step back, looking at the preparation Apple has already done, suggests they are not standing still. We just haven't been made aware of their advancements made. At least until June. </font></div><div><font face="Helvetica Neue Light, HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div><div><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><br></span></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-10069130965004618422016-05-14T17:26:00.001-04:002016-05-14T17:50:00.926-04:00$bac charts and thoughtsI keeps harping on bac only cause of the ridiculous nature of its valuation. Its currently trading 14-15% below tangible book!<div><br></div><div>No secret the driver are rates. The 10yr is low and the world is a wash with negative rates. The correlation is pretty fierce.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHxRhYpJ5MK17azMP4VM_ygZLlb_xveBy4BUB_eP2O5UlHJGI5wXmsvjlFwn9EoskSjrq0PD_BhMErGh1v3M3aXhVYLLskDcwco32GIBld9cKTW4p0BdfDPoS4RgKiM4u7h8x0mfCoWqwn/s640/blogger-image--237793559.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHxRhYpJ5MK17azMP4VM_ygZLlb_xveBy4BUB_eP2O5UlHJGI5wXmsvjlFwn9EoskSjrq0PD_BhMErGh1v3M3aXhVYLLskDcwco32GIBld9cKTW4p0BdfDPoS4RgKiM4u7h8x0mfCoWqwn/s640/blogger-image--237793559.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Even though the above relationship reigns, key negatives are not really negatives anymore. While bankruptcies in oil and gas have continued, oil and junk bonds have recovered.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij22UfahUh86bgkk86Y3PzSKBKNpnAZMXJ_6wgKsj0cHWFagCBTOHhjVSQTV4BILiSih_OEzLsWInkqh4USVTXvf_PCTue1z9aPsGaYsjwVpbnmcmUYhBbtQtrrdN068v0yltMkMT24tdm/s640/blogger-image-1064334319.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij22UfahUh86bgkk86Y3PzSKBKNpnAZMXJ_6wgKsj0cHWFagCBTOHhjVSQTV4BILiSih_OEzLsWInkqh4USVTXvf_PCTue1z9aPsGaYsjwVpbnmcmUYhBbtQtrrdN068v0yltMkMT24tdm/s640/blogger-image-1064334319.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0kzqMtURxsLEa037MmeLKqUQmSbH4B1KbwnGFbSSUqgs4aLMCI0RxIWMDVBwRyO2jqjciV9UOs6Uc6qoy4Hk8tJ3DY9ycZfPKtTRcxkyoovH-tcKuwnNeyIIg2eFbV32oDngPxmjK6bBh/s640/blogger-image-1569527757.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0kzqMtURxsLEa037MmeLKqUQmSbH4B1KbwnGFbSSUqgs4aLMCI0RxIWMDVBwRyO2jqjciV9UOs6Uc6qoy4Hk8tJ3DY9ycZfPKtTRcxkyoovH-tcKuwnNeyIIg2eFbV32oDngPxmjK6bBh/s640/blogger-image-1569527757.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg960yiWxs5vRtg0tZc6w-aZjudKK0uuxV76Qsn9_0p4US1ra4Z3nMBI-eU1YQPPVttL3HzYf1P6PGiC9TnooCnCFdRhbVRZvrATYr7rPukm73y0CnFL9MT150WLxydRUaO6QF1QdMvzUGG/s640/blogger-image--1949153720.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg960yiWxs5vRtg0tZc6w-aZjudKK0uuxV76Qsn9_0p4US1ra4Z3nMBI-eU1YQPPVttL3HzYf1P6PGiC9TnooCnCFdRhbVRZvrATYr7rPukm73y0CnFL9MT150WLxydRUaO6QF1QdMvzUGG/s640/blogger-image--1949153720.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The prices are back to oct 2015 prices. At this time, bac was consistently near mid 15 and as high as low 17! This may explain why the bac has a premium in the bac/tnx correlation.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The move in oil does have me questioning if the 10yr is trading efficiently. (Real world me doesn't mind as I'm shopping for a mortgage. Trader me is like wtf to my bac trade.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Adding to the inefficiency theory is the GDP Now the last two prints. Currently projected to be 2.8% (up from 2.2%).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6A78Kk__CgbgjsSSAcWUgjUIVd143PEWUDtSjdUSkr3Udr0GsbqDs4AssKDoIUyZWcxNCKG-kMTW7aeIlrFFETKjevVeDDcO6RFZ71Ao4UlNycFHBWg9ryLyqQORuo8vz-V83VJJwB7cQ/s640/blogger-image-1822920179.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6A78Kk__CgbgjsSSAcWUgjUIVd143PEWUDtSjdUSkr3Udr0GsbqDs4AssKDoIUyZWcxNCKG-kMTW7aeIlrFFETKjevVeDDcO6RFZ71Ao4UlNycFHBWg9ryLyqQORuo8vz-V83VJJwB7cQ/s640/blogger-image-1822920179.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">If the GDP forecast proves accurate, treasuries will rise, despite the negative rate trend. If treasuries rise, so will bac. </div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-15135838596289838302016-05-09T23:10:00.001-04:002016-05-09T23:10:02.621-04:00Monthly chart and Revenue Growth $twtrThe monthy trading dynamic is closly mimicking the revenue growth. <div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja6ekO6T9qsXX7o_uI0q8ri1LkrxjX0k-_Xkl7cn4WmhAPvSk_RZA7n7qrjgkIywAeYwtj4RY6B2hzhr7UV670gow7l3ncAbFCNa90E2VO21v0ntJfWxWxn7PYwcR-sceoll_jtH4i7Oa9/s640/blogger-image-1468757969.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja6ekO6T9qsXX7o_uI0q8ri1LkrxjX0k-_Xkl7cn4WmhAPvSk_RZA7n7qrjgkIywAeYwtj4RY6B2hzhr7UV670gow7l3ncAbFCNa90E2VO21v0ntJfWxWxn7PYwcR-sceoll_jtH4i7Oa9/s640/blogger-image-1468757969.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoDo-mTwnT3RdqbFSLEyy1YmO55LnMiORUS_vHr4cKI36ufmiABAKIFB66ela_dSzeyZo9KZFzEN9rrg4cVBcsX22XooARGbLZQSOh8FrnKygWMUa6P7sVGo3stl5_dtCL-oBVlCMnnsbQ/s640/blogger-image--1409180782.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoDo-mTwnT3RdqbFSLEyy1YmO55LnMiORUS_vHr4cKI36ufmiABAKIFB66ela_dSzeyZo9KZFzEN9rrg4cVBcsX22XooARGbLZQSOh8FrnKygWMUa6P7sVGo3stl5_dtCL-oBVlCMnnsbQ/s640/blogger-image--1409180782.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-19244935972563868582016-04-25T22:01:00.001-04:002016-04-25T22:01:37.141-04:00$aapl post-report trading dynamicThe probabilities.<div><br></div><div>Downside: low 90s</div><div><br></div><div>Via the charts and continued low-end multiple. </div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjStr-Gw8TlJCZDG-ClLflp4BBsW1A5HAZQiUU1YI5iWZBwgm9_bn1qWKGijOS_kbLQu3Amr2FB6CSBfm07Yk0qTbDh3l6ScqNBUTJeLLdR5rKpIQ5GW4hxXn-c3G8jlp4g1F4ndI5yuKVj/s640/blogger-image-286313805.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjStr-Gw8TlJCZDG-ClLflp4BBsW1A5HAZQiUU1YI5iWZBwgm9_bn1qWKGijOS_kbLQu3Amr2FB6CSBfm07Yk0qTbDh3l6ScqNBUTJeLLdR5rKpIQ5GW4hxXn-c3G8jlp4g1F4ndI5yuKVj/s640/blogger-image-286313805.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9WR8rypf8vgLPc_QZgJrkpKEmdsdSbSqDwhJdHWV5C4wj8GqxwDdmiT-WPW91rJR62fm1YRXu7OJIjApSQHBuZlmaMmyCV0S7z1pSCVAtCp6CLbQ0gCvJm2DPw8Vlch_Wp8tKc5udHfEQ/s640/blogger-image--1022988116.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9WR8rypf8vgLPc_QZgJrkpKEmdsdSbSqDwhJdHWV5C4wj8GqxwDdmiT-WPW91rJR62fm1YRXu7OJIjApSQHBuZlmaMmyCV0S7z1pSCVAtCp6CLbQ0gCvJm2DPw8Vlch_Wp8tKc5udHfEQ/s640/blogger-image--1022988116.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUgDU7QjFnttsvDgiR7mrwdUW9bUISiqYpBI8RkxTxU-iyr5if1ljLoKA0CySu67WM53Yjb7eFcnPT-snk7M44QaGaEqsaUtdwdWhu5_ANFRXHL28LN31lg3g5RdIOAczyXG7q1CQXEaoD/s640/blogger-image--785300138.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUgDU7QjFnttsvDgiR7mrwdUW9bUISiqYpBI8RkxTxU-iyr5if1ljLoKA0CySu67WM53Yjb7eFcnPT-snk7M44QaGaEqsaUtdwdWhu5_ANFRXHL28LN31lg3g5RdIOAczyXG7q1CQXEaoD/s640/blogger-image--785300138.jpg"></a></div><br></div>The upside: 120-130, if the market decides to remove the lowend multiple.</div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-42886691766983320862016-04-23T09:25:00.001-04:002016-04-23T09:25:49.347-04:00Charts - $bacWith the 10yr yield, junk bonds (jnk) and oil rising, so did bac with the rest of the sector. <div><br></div><div>BAC approaching tangible book and monthly resistance. (Given the above macro conditions, trading below book value is just market being very stupid.)<br><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIcceZ90o8zdYjbLRWlKKazS7UtO8omvcw4psYAdXo8vS1yNy7lD7yCQeCTXbOwzV-hMQqYSkWhcObkVKOCpfZlRgtosscohdrA1m1F2fVe32nhiAmliV25-nuB6OcEHUcz-R3SFpTfP66/s640/blogger-image-173804187.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIcceZ90o8zdYjbLRWlKKazS7UtO8omvcw4psYAdXo8vS1yNy7lD7yCQeCTXbOwzV-hMQqYSkWhcObkVKOCpfZlRgtosscohdrA1m1F2fVe32nhiAmliV25-nuB6OcEHUcz-R3SFpTfP66/s640/blogger-image-173804187.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzGNn9rbjygN1Qykosa7PjAf5AQ7n5mQ4f7UDy2ptA1bfQfEexACZg9dF6dU2gLOJAPbhd21z8FmUEJP7oynhvZx73t_6Fro2VlucKBKJrQSoYS673aA0ObUYdY5cqHPVSsYT6e3nAd8Z2/s640/blogger-image-1359555832.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzGNn9rbjygN1Qykosa7PjAf5AQ7n5mQ4f7UDy2ptA1bfQfEexACZg9dF6dU2gLOJAPbhd21z8FmUEJP7oynhvZx73t_6Fro2VlucKBKJrQSoYS673aA0ObUYdY5cqHPVSsYT6e3nAd8Z2/s640/blogger-image-1359555832.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU27kAkK2uB0RG9GvzLgnjacGQKp8MhhmJvG4Zi-VfzbF22Tll-YTAD3igHDSwuTDdj-kqVhYm52NOCSViLEzEBPVZEUuKcBDe7-plq2DqkG8-eFrWIfAlbUI7yNrHnhNnlj7EQ0k30spY/s640/blogger-image-1523817234.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU27kAkK2uB0RG9GvzLgnjacGQKp8MhhmJvG4Zi-VfzbF22Tll-YTAD3igHDSwuTDdj-kqVhYm52NOCSViLEzEBPVZEUuKcBDe7-plq2DqkG8-eFrWIfAlbUI7yNrHnhNnlj7EQ0k30spY/s640/blogger-image-1523817234.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-31548677948414279762016-04-18T23:56:00.001-04:002016-04-18T23:56:26.160-04:00Charts - $aapl<div>Some support at current level. More near 105-106. Heavy support in the mid 90s.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiTPcF0WkyaJu1Nzh3vqOs3cupM_RdZ05EY_F0aPeQhwg1X2KsH2ejpevsaHEIDyTlR96ybGYY04yQUR2EAl9i2BqLaRGXE0FIeCqxC2uaEHlvIF8UUbKCfPdgpsTIqbCz4xnRdUIaXVLd/s640/blogger-image-1520658957.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiTPcF0WkyaJu1Nzh3vqOs3cupM_RdZ05EY_F0aPeQhwg1X2KsH2ejpevsaHEIDyTlR96ybGYY04yQUR2EAl9i2BqLaRGXE0FIeCqxC2uaEHlvIF8UUbKCfPdgpsTIqbCz4xnRdUIaXVLd/s640/blogger-image-1520658957.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd1HqshYNvq5lExytrMpCb5sbTRk6E5xT-daK3zlJcYJ2SvY2LxbYABPStXadSNQSoaURvjF5xKsnvte-XIZ93tdvPE-oQzpktR76fuzvBLoW645xgOBOIvaJDG1QKS1fXqu6syL7dTECy/s640/blogger-image-162287950.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd1HqshYNvq5lExytrMpCb5sbTRk6E5xT-daK3zlJcYJ2SvY2LxbYABPStXadSNQSoaURvjF5xKsnvte-XIZ93tdvPE-oQzpktR76fuzvBLoW645xgOBOIvaJDG1QKS1fXqu6syL7dTECy/s640/blogger-image-162287950.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTahSzd94DcboHizapATH7Tv1mzR6EvPwJfQNcOTKSdXWhbUFHDe2dzuqCt5ClQUn1hcSFqaI98jyd5Y6aag7WOAlahMMxbAQDtdDKSo5uZgyyP-Foas0qaqNHiLlgjEh2mQnh6cXcR96I/s640/blogger-image-367190257.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTahSzd94DcboHizapATH7Tv1mzR6EvPwJfQNcOTKSdXWhbUFHDe2dzuqCt5ClQUn1hcSFqaI98jyd5Y6aag7WOAlahMMxbAQDtdDKSo5uZgyyP-Foas0qaqNHiLlgjEh2mQnh6cXcR96I/s640/blogger-image-367190257.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-30641896468201627912016-04-14T23:24:00.001-04:002016-04-14T23:24:56.366-04:00Charts - $bacA move to 15 seems likely.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc6EC21uqilm4dJJz_M70n7G-yS4vAr-YwMX2r2eIWgJ8SPtHiOtSjmtH26wOWazLzinR6oIRzIpWxyl92DzZjJr_LM73rQ16855TGrrkg_S5LI5C6zjI0XdPjdK6tcJIKsL5dCdKhMdyx/s640/blogger-image--1791871214.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc6EC21uqilm4dJJz_M70n7G-yS4vAr-YwMX2r2eIWgJ8SPtHiOtSjmtH26wOWazLzinR6oIRzIpWxyl92DzZjJr_LM73rQ16855TGrrkg_S5LI5C6zjI0XdPjdK6tcJIKsL5dCdKhMdyx/s640/blogger-image--1791871214.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgOQo-yPgtyre3b327GTzLVeQPpU08jtB2MOnyyeY-NMfpjk207GlvjFDxSNW4mF4l61ErIepmbXoGEj0GoqLflgYUPnXvuXk5zC33MCq0MgxySj-I1Rvv0_bbJ3-BT46rnaNwTVsfcEEt/s640/blogger-image-233888385.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgOQo-yPgtyre3b327GTzLVeQPpU08jtB2MOnyyeY-NMfpjk207GlvjFDxSNW4mF4l61ErIepmbXoGEj0GoqLflgYUPnXvuXk5zC33MCq0MgxySj-I1Rvv0_bbJ3-BT46rnaNwTVsfcEEt/s640/blogger-image-233888385.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A move between 16-17 would be logical given the increase in tangible book value.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxDn0c_B4Ha2wBTnskI4OGXC6Lbfwkg_2d5142jE2W0frej9_Ih-mFs9VYRQva5b6xwbHLvWmc6hCaLx8BqsPXLiNiSdnM8EiDXPjDVeQtti2WvSDUAoaYk9_cdkNYvKoHG0yBnA6Q9I5l/s640/blogger-image-1999932235.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxDn0c_B4Ha2wBTnskI4OGXC6Lbfwkg_2d5142jE2W0frej9_Ih-mFs9VYRQva5b6xwbHLvWmc6hCaLx8BqsPXLiNiSdnM8EiDXPjDVeQtti2WvSDUAoaYk9_cdkNYvKoHG0yBnA6Q9I5l/s640/blogger-image-1999932235.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">But of course, this would mean the 10yr yield correlation breaks or the yield rises and bac follows.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1RIt-Rh4slXMbHP0y_7epkliT7sfKm6RNJY8e_Rt0ybfKHxyR-EF6qK9vu8UKN0QBtKwsIPrEJ66DIkm_8H8avHXMF53XAUx_SjeOgjWd64_x0E3_SWzHKjXZc16SXubSB890VsWp_S9I/s640/blogger-image--1414686187.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1RIt-Rh4slXMbHP0y_7epkliT7sfKm6RNJY8e_Rt0ybfKHxyR-EF6qK9vu8UKN0QBtKwsIPrEJ66DIkm_8H8avHXMF53XAUx_SjeOgjWd64_x0E3_SWzHKjXZc16SXubSB890VsWp_S9I/s640/blogger-image--1414686187.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-39849458112026412922016-04-06T23:44:00.001-04:002016-04-06T23:48:25.629-04:00Market Thought... Now vs 1yr agoThe market is flat.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkGd95D6IrZIcGcrefRscNLRWJYisI0BN7swi5QufzPRg8QntxW12PSs17iKCrFHxrm6Ged3qlvde9p29cn8Sey-ncL57wjOen2Zjf084CEEbieHKUT9Ct4K1pxSEcDTPljzJasI9sQK30/s640/blogger-image--1806839453.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkGd95D6IrZIcGcrefRscNLRWJYisI0BN7swi5QufzPRg8QntxW12PSs17iKCrFHxrm6Ged3qlvde9p29cn8Sey-ncL57wjOen2Zjf084CEEbieHKUT9Ct4K1pxSEcDTPljzJasI9sQK30/s640/blogger-image--1806839453.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Oil and gasoline were alot higher. (But as supply reduces, prices should start approaching last year prices.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYjbZoAdofcqUOmb9Bg33nsrFTGi0k-K5Pm9esdjpbQWjeWqvOHKmT49s8tXihpQCpPECrb7_HMs4WIML3zg8TDXf-5E-cck00btVyFEb9hKwQXGGBeWFdpkdfD22KAANCltSCDYM34DF/s640/blogger-image--773441643.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHYjbZoAdofcqUOmb9Bg33nsrFTGi0k-K5Pm9esdjpbQWjeWqvOHKmT49s8tXihpQCpPECrb7_HMs4WIML3zg8TDXf-5E-cck00btVyFEb9hKwQXGGBeWFdpkdfD22KAANCltSCDYM34DF/s640/blogger-image--773441643.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Although oil is alot lower compared to last year, junk bonds have recovered. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicymmGhnNqTL28D5YhZNCNHhCCvozN8kttuCI0yWLisXwxb-84Ge6c3pZ2QBP132gnhArVuzCwJZMx0926XOgyQxkqsgwpfpPfI6TGMpebtwUjbR6YCf1e8CPI164qc8TIkV-AyfHGS3HP/s640/blogger-image-1983898246.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicymmGhnNqTL28D5YhZNCNHhCCvozN8kttuCI0yWLisXwxb-84Ge6c3pZ2QBP132gnhArVuzCwJZMx0926XOgyQxkqsgwpfpPfI6TGMpebtwUjbR6YCf1e8CPI164qc8TIkV-AyfHGS3HP/s640/blogger-image-1983898246.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A lot of global bonds have turned negative. Those pressures appear to be pushing the 10yr yield as well. Although surprisingly, the yield was near current levels a year ago. (Yet bac was at 15 a year ago.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl_PRWK9lUS39p8Oia9t044_SW35fSsgDRBRWhhWOQEVOIetYRdvQ2rlL24ZZoztX35op-aF39GhgI_GApM5cNe7BfiFJTMXlXX3RsK3flzu-oxSLaGMANGHhbuekVfF5a_EbdRIZ0Foh-/s640/blogger-image-1649096600.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl_PRWK9lUS39p8Oia9t044_SW35fSsgDRBRWhhWOQEVOIetYRdvQ2rlL24ZZoztX35op-aF39GhgI_GApM5cNe7BfiFJTMXlXX3RsK3flzu-oxSLaGMANGHhbuekVfF5a_EbdRIZ0Foh-/s640/blogger-image-1649096600.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The lack of credit spreads should cause bank profit pressures. The firming of oil prices should mitigate default risks, and as oil rises the majors that cut cap ex should see the profit benefit. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Economic points of concern: the volume of transported goods. 2016 is still a lower year for rail frieght traffic.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcCmApgTPmjJaSjm4QR8vUTUbOIjfldHFTipn7dlp5vAgQ3-ARl8iq929FupAD357Ue6EANrUrmInFYfjPsgNSVQWEPg1IbgM_JcUuSmqpyCHnsVPW1-ZdSEMmyEgq-D57-1y4B6FD-KlQ/s640/blogger-image--1857050319.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcCmApgTPmjJaSjm4QR8vUTUbOIjfldHFTipn7dlp5vAgQ3-ARl8iq929FupAD357Ue6EANrUrmInFYfjPsgNSVQWEPg1IbgM_JcUuSmqpyCHnsVPW1-ZdSEMmyEgq-D57-1y4B6FD-KlQ/s640/blogger-image--1857050319.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">While the BDI has recovered from early year lows, its still lower compared to a year ago.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBOn6QMfkCLIrKFi5lRcfPgr-3si9OIiFzMzgTRNyx0h1Mszf1q6E8QDzO55_22qF-t04chZi9HEPGfUWnrlQrhc5E6NG1P6CF0l7x9NiX1zDJCTXwkyA_eFidmLD8D6f8t6yH_X6r_I2B/s640/blogger-image-1248900321.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBOn6QMfkCLIrKFi5lRcfPgr-3si9OIiFzMzgTRNyx0h1Mszf1q6E8QDzO55_22qF-t04chZi9HEPGfUWnrlQrhc5E6NG1P6CF0l7x9NiX1zDJCTXwkyA_eFidmLD8D6f8t6yH_X6r_I2B/s640/blogger-image-1248900321.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-77418704850499514252016-04-05T23:24:00.001-04:002016-04-05T23:24:30.182-04:00$bac and the ten yearIf the bac / tnx yield correlation means anything, bac may be testing 12 again.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMYFXUMv99160IHNgRQlDQcN1qeq1aceRwSskdvvwk8wFpi05SQOxQNdCcvMtf00Zkhso3ykEpMuG0rr8crL5KvGYv7WRrzryMaras-5mKh8NUL_GWcDeINXWnGk8BUSemqttZzKJekzdm/s640/blogger-image--1150409764.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMYFXUMv99160IHNgRQlDQcN1qeq1aceRwSskdvvwk8wFpi05SQOxQNdCcvMtf00Zkhso3ykEpMuG0rr8crL5KvGYv7WRrzryMaras-5mKh8NUL_GWcDeINXWnGk8BUSemqttZzKJekzdm/s640/blogger-image--1150409764.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">BAC should not be below 15-16, yet the pattern exists.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">How I plan on playing it: as bac approaches 12, will go heavy in the money options, while also playing long dated out of money options.</div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-2153798320133135562016-04-04T23:45:00.001-04:002016-04-04T23:47:19.607-04:00Charts - $amznLooking to pick back up near 580.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVM9dJDSawoiOuD8BXSmbHJ10_KbCrsPosPCvtB3ivHZaMu_8KjyXVao8rPc1BwZ1wFrruFfXQdgjtNJxOS3yADLNqP5IvbWTrjadVSbyXvxpyS6KSTg2rW0FxJ6fTFqcz1eq6H2nE4lof/s640/blogger-image-70430573.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVM9dJDSawoiOuD8BXSmbHJ10_KbCrsPosPCvtB3ivHZaMu_8KjyXVao8rPc1BwZ1wFrruFfXQdgjtNJxOS3yADLNqP5IvbWTrjadVSbyXvxpyS6KSTg2rW0FxJ6fTFqcz1eq6H2nE4lof/s640/blogger-image-70430573.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid3L-sMp0A9o4XGKH5ABE7mbxpjRNl7cnAJXrqAyKRAzc7k6BggwuqSnh7n0AkyldZSI6Xggg5yMyqAXIslfGpLjFXEMxVU2A1NtFUc6qzGOg7eXjPCvz1uE0FBUoWCJLz8S4usZz1g_mZ/s640/blogger-image-887079462.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid3L-sMp0A9o4XGKH5ABE7mbxpjRNl7cnAJXrqAyKRAzc7k6BggwuqSnh7n0AkyldZSI6Xggg5yMyqAXIslfGpLjFXEMxVU2A1NtFUc6qzGOg7eXjPCvz1uE0FBUoWCJLz8S4usZz1g_mZ/s640/blogger-image-887079462.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br><div><br></div><div><br></div></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-1231770929426773392016-03-28T21:42:00.001-04:002016-03-28T21:42:43.751-04:00Charts - $bacWith a break out, its quickly going to 15. Belong in the high teens.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNlGW5osvYRNHWjPexuJCekvuQgzSqzRJkGwsMWifLco7ZlUOkrteZWTtRD9QmZNTT1atZATrpLGorAFUroqs-evuxUwVcOEwdDpQQqfEMopIgLLBw_yiccga8r2yUPq_HI3TDf3NMlqFg/s640/blogger-image-1571451617.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNlGW5osvYRNHWjPexuJCekvuQgzSqzRJkGwsMWifLco7ZlUOkrteZWTtRD9QmZNTT1atZATrpLGorAFUroqs-evuxUwVcOEwdDpQQqfEMopIgLLBw_yiccga8r2yUPq_HI3TDf3NMlqFg/s640/blogger-image-1571451617.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE1HMANy8IqpwUN-MKSc7V2XguLvs1L7Oxk8V0sWxIEyw1-0Ztqra7arwnb0aMM5BML56AboUEpwhkaCJZSgiHgovlvbNXmaWtzpleEydEc7zzlMFInSpgtBJ7-zaJlqvF7fxGwmewl-Al/s640/blogger-image--778097627.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE1HMANy8IqpwUN-MKSc7V2XguLvs1L7Oxk8V0sWxIEyw1-0Ztqra7arwnb0aMM5BML56AboUEpwhkaCJZSgiHgovlvbNXmaWtzpleEydEc7zzlMFInSpgtBJ7-zaJlqvF7fxGwmewl-Al/s640/blogger-image--778097627.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFN8wNy2a0fZlIa_8wQmq8xzK7vpfiaSb2tgLa_LuamW_9gO0dEIs6OkPMBAzX87k8kT-pV4qjDU45FlzS_dLuP0RJMrAhjVsdTjHvDBxIdNaNeoCFPeaL-hQo1cdHDVR-WhsL-8cgJarz/s640/blogger-image--1565901365.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFN8wNy2a0fZlIa_8wQmq8xzK7vpfiaSb2tgLa_LuamW_9gO0dEIs6OkPMBAzX87k8kT-pV4qjDU45FlzS_dLuP0RJMrAhjVsdTjHvDBxIdNaNeoCFPeaL-hQo1cdHDVR-WhsL-8cgJarz/s640/blogger-image--1565901365.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-28634912957928714312016-03-04T11:16:00.001-05:002016-03-04T11:16:46.432-05:00Notes on $trxc cc - nice info1. Explained the lack of sales from ALF-X. <div><br></div><div>- clinical trials and the previous company had no sales force infrastructure </div><div><br></div><div>2. Elaborated on the ATM</div><div><br></div><div>-Basically will use it when they need to</div><div><br></div><div>3. Financing</div><div><br></div><div>-will need more by early 207</div><div><br></div><div>4. EU public hospitals </div><div><br></div><div>-purchases are made through a tender / bidding process. Requires the products to be compared prior to purchase.</div><div><br></div><div>5. Hosting events for private hospitals with robots in place</div><div><br></div><div>-seems like a continuous and consistent communication with reps </div><div><br></div><div>6. Built out sales force and still hiring</div><div><br></div><div>Good stuff. </div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-51481424448991900082016-02-17T00:02:00.001-05:002016-02-17T00:02:13.639-05:00Charts - $aaplReady to run toward 107-110ish?<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtOYXfD3ooEf46i2dBDELk4Izata4021nhKMuJ6hOypSuRYqBQANCcuoMqvakZKi0qMYGROTW38cGbTT8o_lkzmxAxndpbMW8a1MmOHbcNXLS7oC2Zecm4AP_LZVYF_cRwzrFNUvDrxXfY/s640/blogger-image-180673640.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtOYXfD3ooEf46i2dBDELk4Izata4021nhKMuJ6hOypSuRYqBQANCcuoMqvakZKi0qMYGROTW38cGbTT8o_lkzmxAxndpbMW8a1MmOHbcNXLS7oC2Zecm4AP_LZVYF_cRwzrFNUvDrxXfY/s640/blogger-image-180673640.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A lot of resistence via the weekly:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0Yf0tI4Qq5VhA1Ab1qXmDTEDIwCWPtTR4y6MOo6WRYbPSPdK__Qvzt28A3dn_z4-jkA3ZfhGy_57tLV73tYLsnJ94W34Ic07Eo5j0kZH7D83YHgchYPIDPZDzggBzMoKRDGVn59xsUUUn/s640/blogger-image--1114738600.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0Yf0tI4Qq5VhA1Ab1qXmDTEDIwCWPtTR4y6MOo6WRYbPSPdK__Qvzt28A3dn_z4-jkA3ZfhGy_57tLV73tYLsnJ94W34Ic07Eo5j0kZH7D83YHgchYPIDPZDzggBzMoKRDGVn59xsUUUn/s640/blogger-image--1114738600.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A lot of support, and the most oversold in a long time via the monthly. (Go heavy near high 80/low 90s.)</div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2Uf1rhqIVUIEZI-EUEPoyU7JKaeUo-2PERKoBpQm_S_5MfrhRryRroH5NrEVuKwe7pruSL4jmUiU10DuoanGSyVVETwTz0vRJTbqxwaQ1jL2rCbRr6d-7nM1NUzf4QlSBez7WafaZAEvW/s640/blogger-image-1266721749.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2Uf1rhqIVUIEZI-EUEPoyU7JKaeUo-2PERKoBpQm_S_5MfrhRryRroH5NrEVuKwe7pruSL4jmUiU10DuoanGSyVVETwTz0vRJTbqxwaQ1jL2rCbRr6d-7nM1NUzf4QlSBez7WafaZAEvW/s640/blogger-image-1266721749.jpg"></a></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-7206633553416177082016-02-11T23:41:00.001-05:002016-02-11T23:41:20.870-05:00Chart - $bacDid not think bac would breach 14, yet here we are. In a scenario where Jamie Dimon buys $26M worth of jpm cause of this stupid, and i mean idiotic, decline in US financials.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg537WVmP7wBin5oaCQWa6vhyphenhyphenAjT3R62k67770ohlpIygB3pLI7-EGAxSrArSxzLUjSYXnBtyv7ba9A7emLPVVq64bWLcFdOSggb4BqReqBAwrrAkjm-J_e7ofq5e3oqky9U13-CJm-v_fO/s640/blogger-image-150921780.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg537WVmP7wBin5oaCQWa6vhyphenhyphenAjT3R62k67770ohlpIygB3pLI7-EGAxSrArSxzLUjSYXnBtyv7ba9A7emLPVVq64bWLcFdOSggb4BqReqBAwrrAkjm-J_e7ofq5e3oqky9U13-CJm-v_fO/s640/blogger-image-150921780.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-78345484495459499132016-02-01T22:10:00.001-05:002016-02-01T23:46:30.003-05:00The marriage of Technology & Liberal Arts $aaplThe marriage of technology and liberal arts. Whatever the narrative Apple management is pushing, this is who they are. But if Apple is serious about shifting the streets focus, they have to prove it. <div><br></div><div>Apple has a tremendous services business. As Trump would say, "HUGE! Okaaay." But as huge as it is, the service is completely tied to the iOS which is tied to the hardware. By that logic, so goes the hardware, so goes the services. (Loyalty surveys of +95% be damned!)</div><div><br></div><div>To free itself from the street's hardware perception, it has to branch out. Let loose their powerful software cross platform. Liberate iMessage, and rethink what can be done within the App that can leverage Apple services.</div><div><br></div><div>Apple has done this before. A key service that got PC users into buying Macs: iTunes.</div><div><br></div><div>Its time to use iMessage, iCloud, (leveraging the ability to have an app store within iMessage, exposing android users to other services), to be the mobile era sales rep to the iphone, Apple Watch, ipad and/or whenevery they get serious about the IoT.</div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-74512308558720560622016-01-31T11:02:00.001-05:002016-01-31T11:02:38.197-05:00Chart - $bacBeen trading bac for a while. As it dipped below the tnx correlation and well below tangible book value (and the most oversold since 2012), the bearish of the bear became bullish. A move to 16 is the obvious trade.<div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsXZoYjitLmKEgjPxl7deJP3n6IMJpnryKjw7pSl2HQHz9mBfOS3yTsaGAHAZJi8NOeoN3GmP5CUBgSwlCelcPflVl0RII3PRuQ_4FeXSkXAhQhoWOsEcEc64kVYWWqXb9DwiHwfKlpzu8/s640/blogger-image-1369031290.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsXZoYjitLmKEgjPxl7deJP3n6IMJpnryKjw7pSl2HQHz9mBfOS3yTsaGAHAZJi8NOeoN3GmP5CUBgSwlCelcPflVl0RII3PRuQ_4FeXSkXAhQhoWOsEcEc64kVYWWqXb9DwiHwfKlpzu8/s640/blogger-image-1369031290.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">After 16, it may consolidate, but it really belongs +18.</div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-78056006759799257482016-01-29T07:07:00.001-05:002016-01-29T07:07:55.899-05:00$amzn chart orgy<div>Good numbers. Increasing GM yr over yr. Although it looks like its making too much money. Management can not spend all of it. </div><div><br></div><div>Support around 550 and 520.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHv3tWhmi1ZfdwNZEZwKk8ceNshjRyHQJzR7dIZk_DNZ7ozRSh2OxOmSVW_iQPjTOafPNc-iRlGV-wrZ-Ws4C5u4u8r5leJ0sP9ZwUQkvDNtdmK8QD5HSKCP-lk1SUiXOGXZbNFhdzUJo8/s640/blogger-image-1679152911.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHv3tWhmi1ZfdwNZEZwKk8ceNshjRyHQJzR7dIZk_DNZ7ozRSh2OxOmSVW_iQPjTOafPNc-iRlGV-wrZ-Ws4C5u4u8r5leJ0sP9ZwUQkvDNtdmK8QD5HSKCP-lk1SUiXOGXZbNFhdzUJo8/s640/blogger-image-1679152911.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuVsezCzvZ5svtVsAIJ26htdTIJwF900Dj8Yk6Ywt8o0YcDnmaM1xiV6WQUQPSRrRnY5Q-Zj0W_o35TxN23ECIIKvuwlZsv3XIm9b4YNyWUOMh8HOm2nkkU8-4vrq05AJGijFTfdGjaNI0/s640/blogger-image--1900759563.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuVsezCzvZ5svtVsAIJ26htdTIJwF900Dj8Yk6Ywt8o0YcDnmaM1xiV6WQUQPSRrRnY5Q-Zj0W_o35TxN23ECIIKvuwlZsv3XIm9b4YNyWUOMh8HOm2nkkU8-4vrq05AJGijFTfdGjaNI0/s640/blogger-image--1900759563.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigEqqF2yGc5tJopIId5hj6_VKFsfwN-Caorfq5PcG2mPI24kmMoy8gTsPGlVwbLwhe94JSthmF1FsC5mAJb6M6ILrPReWuPoxdKrxITrI4klcYXzHiDjJTLpVAE7-n_djwpKmuViVw9xv1/s640/blogger-image--1308786427.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigEqqF2yGc5tJopIId5hj6_VKFsfwN-Caorfq5PcG2mPI24kmMoy8gTsPGlVwbLwhe94JSthmF1FsC5mAJb6M6ILrPReWuPoxdKrxITrI4klcYXzHiDjJTLpVAE7-n_djwpKmuViVw9xv1/s640/blogger-image--1308786427.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTQ4keJaEklLhp7TUyNXcCbviDrzG0ALtajcR1YbYihCSEDW6QqndtC35swqm7TEpzco0XzLX_pXb7ELF_Ihi9qruUWfuJsvmpIIcL3UgkluDz0cleibDBfSK4Af3cSyevaj6RLOcVtkOJ/s640/blogger-image-844741241.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTQ4keJaEklLhp7TUyNXcCbviDrzG0ALtajcR1YbYihCSEDW6QqndtC35swqm7TEpzco0XzLX_pXb7ELF_Ihi9qruUWfuJsvmpIIcL3UgkluDz0cleibDBfSK4Af3cSyevaj6RLOcVtkOJ/s640/blogger-image-844741241.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK6U2eQCnl_HGZzBIVJdSWSUSlKm9T_pEglpUooN0q7dd_C4xv1D8r0gLzBbh0SetBJH5Svtyg0kmEG5vLJlJXDhvwa4DF38fY265syrQGN0o9mj-JW23lG4h_41bg264yQQ0zYHDaOhX6/s640/blogger-image-1265951659.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK6U2eQCnl_HGZzBIVJdSWSUSlKm9T_pEglpUooN0q7dd_C4xv1D8r0gLzBbh0SetBJH5Svtyg0kmEG5vLJlJXDhvwa4DF38fY265syrQGN0o9mj-JW23lG4h_41bg264yQQ0zYHDaOhX6/s640/blogger-image-1265951659.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtxu1MgJUdwHjBvjrmPmYConhNnD33UtHKiNSt_-h2PlewQAlRI_E9fN08bjfr0LaEwa6fuXUQqNEOcZ83_mxdacGae6Nh9NGS6nnHKQGvf25zRm8qkCoiNpI5wdJfc6SGW2Bek_hirluS/s640/blogger-image--29203369.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtxu1MgJUdwHjBvjrmPmYConhNnD33UtHKiNSt_-h2PlewQAlRI_E9fN08bjfr0LaEwa6fuXUQqNEOcZ83_mxdacGae6Nh9NGS6nnHKQGvf25zRm8qkCoiNpI5wdJfc6SGW2Bek_hirluS/s640/blogger-image--29203369.jpg"></a></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-36886974921762402572016-01-25T20:19:00.001-05:002016-01-25T22:26:57.780-05:00Charts - $bacBAC breaks up tomorrow, investors get $15.60. (Yeah and this models $30 crude for a few months! But the "super-smart" chatter-heads dont buy it.)<div><br></div><div>As the market goes, so did bac. Its down with the rest of the market since Jan 1st.</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglnio_e6SoZDP6Cmbo2nF2fUdq9r5HL1R_aWPxg47hkxG8Y6ATgTznFcuSI3UYHtuliTPRngIekBYhOA-HLLtW1QZeRURbBy6ZD8i7lpGFTl2PodYrepw8zr7TPCMP0-Ee37PbbSPpetOl/s640/blogger-image--66404495.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglnio_e6SoZDP6Cmbo2nF2fUdq9r5HL1R_aWPxg47hkxG8Y6ATgTznFcuSI3UYHtuliTPRngIekBYhOA-HLLtW1QZeRURbBy6ZD8i7lpGFTl2PodYrepw8zr7TPCMP0-Ee37PbbSPpetOl/s640/blogger-image--66404495.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Why? Correlations.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Financial stress rises, flight to safety. Banks go down, treasuries go up (yields go down).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidfwv-4AfKtB9xvDuXFfzswgH-5cOoQYsGd9ngmBhhkc7-BC2uHWXdAOJV21p2ohgKZUO2Ih8S7xx0fv8D6GfowyDWouh9vY7n4GQoqqOOnKp-Dt6cGpwfxz1CxNlAS9b8kB6ZgQJdSanQ/s640/blogger-image-1323574786.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidfwv-4AfKtB9xvDuXFfzswgH-5cOoQYsGd9ngmBhhkc7-BC2uHWXdAOJV21p2ohgKZUO2Ih8S7xx0fv8D6GfowyDWouh9vY7n4GQoqqOOnKp-Dt6cGpwfxz1CxNlAS9b8kB6ZgQJdSanQ/s640/blogger-image-1323574786.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg762ygFMxJyIdCzpEWbHkwYFDVl7_Adry2GyVgublhOd5hcqsOhuKLqlbxCl0C5n_3Swc2gXs4jFydkEEsKyDpCVUaYvEC4T8BpZxOgDtR13FhRTf13-AXfSYTvJMhgo7UdY2hFpdxm3VX/s640/blogger-image--1546210720.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg762ygFMxJyIdCzpEWbHkwYFDVl7_Adry2GyVgublhOd5hcqsOhuKLqlbxCl0C5n_3Swc2gXs4jFydkEEsKyDpCVUaYvEC4T8BpZxOgDtR13FhRTf13-AXfSYTvJMhgo7UdY2hFpdxm3VX/s640/blogger-image--1546210720.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Why? Stupid junk bonds.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAehyphenhyphenribLrPcfEQMIfEc5gd4gYjq4CGHiLLhZaFzWuCo8lANJAXjIybiS1zXPHd8o9Ne8Q4I16mvuqFPvpY9XitV9MGtP9yifmQ5PHM12fh1riCkoUfDEBSeGa6xDMVfATCjM5JlwjMazC/s640/blogger-image--589228800.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAehyphenhyphenribLrPcfEQMIfEc5gd4gYjq4CGHiLLhZaFzWuCo8lANJAXjIybiS1zXPHd8o9Ne8Q4I16mvuqFPvpY9XitV9MGtP9yifmQ5PHM12fh1riCkoUfDEBSeGa6xDMVfATCjM5JlwjMazC/s640/blogger-image--589228800.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Why are junk bonds going down? Stupid oil. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Crude stays near $30, defaults will hit. I shrug my shoulders cause its no different than any other market shaking out the unprepared players. Thing is, junk has not correlated well with the spy. It obviously out performed, and now its under performing. The XLF on the other hand clearly is correlated.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif68OG3ZkvwaoXBm7GRQGwYLBwdcBShdaBQEE3B9V-e8qfQTQn6vMBOh6DAXCyp3k9e5GwZ2gGBjxH98UsBg6YL_hoMa3jRgP35XgbkYTAfGLWWhcljMGkGmOKOKHXQ8MXWUWnfQxxp5Xn/s640/blogger-image-1134643082.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif68OG3ZkvwaoXBm7GRQGwYLBwdcBShdaBQEE3B9V-e8qfQTQn6vMBOh6DAXCyp3k9e5GwZ2gGBjxH98UsBg6YL_hoMa3jRgP35XgbkYTAfGLWWhcljMGkGmOKOKHXQ8MXWUWnfQxxp5Xn/s640/blogger-image-1134643082.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">So go financials, so go the markets. Or Vice versa whichever you prefer.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">More corelations, bac vs $tnx. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD5TXche6D39RU8j9WBL_RtCIWhwgjSkcyMLemoGFnYsHM0BARMC1n84EZlEig0eo6gsM8r7GnHVI_eHOaU1bNMVGMCyRFa8Bc4fdHEWgEEDhpMe5_7T7A9xWAX61wN3IvR3r__Sjle2cJ/s640/blogger-image-1115703281.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD5TXche6D39RU8j9WBL_RtCIWhwgjSkcyMLemoGFnYsHM0BARMC1n84EZlEig0eo6gsM8r7GnHVI_eHOaU1bNMVGMCyRFa8Bc4fdHEWgEEDhpMe5_7T7A9xWAX61wN3IvR3r__Sjle2cJ/s640/blogger-image-1115703281.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Clearly there is a disconnect here. How dare bac lose its corelation to the 10yr!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The most important economic data point right now is the rate of oil supply. How much is taken off line as consumption remains steady given global gdp expectations. A curious thing happens to a commodity when suppy reduces and demand keeps rising. This go around it will stem the junk bond defaults, reducing financial stress, inflation starts to pop up, treasuries rise, the banks rise, SP500 earnings level off thanks to energy names and markets rise.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Also, wonder where the $1TRILLION outflows from china will end up. Seems like they are choosing treasuries, maybe they should look to bac :).</div><br></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7345277745213012470.post-74180311107169200902016-01-17T01:32:00.001-05:002016-01-17T18:31:02.280-05:00Market Thought... Everyone is Bearish $spyThe good news, at least twtr is not alone with a unanimous bearish chatter. Misery loves company. And that is why the dooms-day folks exist.<div><br></div><div>A quick economic recap: </div><div><br></div><div>1. US economy is doing pretty good. (Or so says the labor market, the open job positions, incomes, reduced house hold debt, etc)</div><div><br></div><div>2. EU is still in stimulus mode.</div><div><br></div><div>3. Japan still in stimulus mode.</div><div><br></div><div>4. China is on the verge of complete collapse. Or so that is the perception. But in reality it's an economy in transition. Services are doing well but 'old' economy is not and excesses are being flushed out of the system. </div><div><br></div><div>A quick US market sentiment recap:</div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVsBpXTNYAZNe_Yb2DuJw09yGcr6v6StuJSx_yYglp7bDPXh_zgMGd7QY5GJZeYjq9UA1aqBw7JAvcOcnJkXKP5W8ptnQTh5EpML1IBJtX2BaOanzxlifI3-0PzjkvtDozBBHGzL7BkOs7/s640/blogger-image--835486531.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVsBpXTNYAZNe_Yb2DuJw09yGcr6v6StuJSx_yYglp7bDPXh_zgMGd7QY5GJZeYjq9UA1aqBw7JAvcOcnJkXKP5W8ptnQTh5EpML1IBJtX2BaOanzxlifI3-0PzjkvtDozBBHGzL7BkOs7/s640/blogger-image--835486531.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div><br></div><div>1. The first time the market started to decline by 10% the Junk Bonds were to blame. </div><div><br></div><div>2. Connected to the junk bonds is oil. (Lower crude, the loans to the smaller players will go bust, increasing NPL to the banks.) But oil is also an economic tell, and it's being tied to China's economy.</div><div><br></div><div>3. Lower crude is also causing lower SP500 earnings, allowing for a year-over-year decline.</div><div><br></div><div>Shanghai Composite the last eight years shows a country in transition. Negative economic interpretations are being made from a no-where-moving. Although some how, the last few months "are an indicator to something". </div><div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTPR2hSUKjpyh6AvLwvH-EwxvMWM4QpovYRDbgGSrmWbx9CiDvp8bQ7ADN7avM22cBZSqq9arbQ9yK9af9FFl3j8Msp4LIqPVrOmj7IIO11vzVis3CSWoR_K_CirkhaavNOkkxEuOoNuMW/s640/blogger-image-1210183582.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTPR2hSUKjpyh6AvLwvH-EwxvMWM4QpovYRDbgGSrmWbx9CiDvp8bQ7ADN7avM22cBZSqq9arbQ9yK9af9FFl3j8Msp4LIqPVrOmj7IIO11vzVis3CSWoR_K_CirkhaavNOkkxEuOoNuMW/s640/blogger-image-1210183582.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Market players choose what they want to believe. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This go around, crude is simply trading at lows. So somehow this is support that china, or global GDP, is really fucked. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_YuLpYL-jiDBuI1UbZ3t0yduvYL5iPgNgpDjErAfwNsIRkgPOFO85jzLdnFSBf9W4cK3XAjrizkSphjOilk5lXocj_FZWUT-UGOXUzYsyofM4pdwUIOaxnDePkWtz52Z13CWkY-H9Tri1/s640/blogger-image--623198156.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_YuLpYL-jiDBuI1UbZ3t0yduvYL5iPgNgpDjErAfwNsIRkgPOFO85jzLdnFSBf9W4cK3XAjrizkSphjOilk5lXocj_FZWUT-UGOXUzYsyofM4pdwUIOaxnDePkWtz52Z13CWkY-H9Tri1/s640/blogger-image--623198156.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDEp37L9Czpqr6qvo3m29Bm1AY2EevZtgkiWPXTh_nega3ll1Y6x5Po6vulU0XVGCY3uzfuUWEBubZQ3rHZVlCCQlQwjrARIu9zX4ClmDxz9tryeXzvG1WBzWm4XPSQsUW5ayb8H1eaJvy/s640/blogger-image--1285384875.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDEp37L9Czpqr6qvo3m29Bm1AY2EevZtgkiWPXTh_nega3ll1Y6x5Po6vulU0XVGCY3uzfuUWEBubZQ3rHZVlCCQlQwjrARIu9zX4ClmDxz9tryeXzvG1WBzWm4XPSQsUW5ayb8H1eaJvy/s640/blogger-image--1285384875.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">A supply / demand driven commodity is corroborating a global slowdown. So a flood of supply means global gdp is collapsing?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Or it's just an imbalance in supply, and negative sentiment got animalistic. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCs5HmlvOo-L1BAw2yiia-gL5xygCMbXdNKuMOaTr8Ev4eM9NtMv0zp76kqSZx8ZECzJ4wLSPEYaAiWSHpc_F56eNfvS7M3XTVx7FdGtz1RByt-HpeUzB2n2luzIFLeDcCBq6V_vQ3K_c4/s640/blogger-image-435058230.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCs5HmlvOo-L1BAw2yiia-gL5xygCMbXdNKuMOaTr8Ev4eM9NtMv0zp76kqSZx8ZECzJ4wLSPEYaAiWSHpc_F56eNfvS7M3XTVx7FdGtz1RByt-HpeUzB2n2luzIFLeDcCBq6V_vQ3K_c4/s640/blogger-image-435058230.jpg"></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The oil market is driven by its own dynamic. And as JPM, WFC and C are showing, there is little material spill over to the banks. This include the junk bond 'issue'. </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Since the first 10% decline, the market has been trading at am elevated Vix w a higher low. But we have not seen a higher high. And we should not. There is no scenario where the global financial system will be in crisis. (Crisis as defined as in 2008 US system, and 2010 and 2012 EU collapse.) True crisis is a Vix of +90 and +50, respectively. Run of the mill slowdowns or contained geo-hiccups have seen Vix between 30-40.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaGXR_GyxQCYJgQ_g1q9rN1RSagzW47LKJxkLWhS2VZyxhQJOtoF35IZTHejcYBpVbdSelijt-Hb1f3n8lIK8PacXiT2eZYnEJFGcsk6M8yIF-8f1yBCSKwU4pAKcdcfkMzozNtM8x7nlL/s640/blogger-image--1663167664.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaGXR_GyxQCYJgQ_g1q9rN1RSagzW47LKJxkLWhS2VZyxhQJOtoF35IZTHejcYBpVbdSelijt-Hb1f3n8lIK8PacXiT2eZYnEJFGcsk6M8yIF-8f1yBCSKwU4pAKcdcfkMzozNtM8x7nlL/s640/blogger-image--1663167664.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The Vix is near its high. The 10yr is at lows. Will they go higher and lower?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxLpGp5dfRjBNC6NKjq4i2gXo-pdZVNvaYiZirPWQvsK3fLumpzqZSKl_ecx-nUb5pRZyK7yjNQFu8MRhIZLSV_0oHqV5-rAObdmVCmZTe2ey7wohXinaI59BJAVo1OoqY6f79-mKtViyC/s640/blogger-image--2137192093.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxLpGp5dfRjBNC6NKjq4i2gXo-pdZVNvaYiZirPWQvsK3fLumpzqZSKl_ecx-nUb5pRZyK7yjNQFu8MRhIZLSV_0oHqV5-rAObdmVCmZTe2ey7wohXinaI59BJAVo1OoqY6f79-mKtViyC/s640/blogger-image--2137192093.jpg"></a></div><br></div>Maybe. But depending on the extremes, hopefully we are closer to a bottom. </div><br></div><br></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div><br></div>echotoallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13665501248396397938noreply@blogger.com0