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Saturday, March 27, 2010

Trade Volume Going Up

World trade volume will apparently be up big. At least that is what the WTO says. (article) If this is the case, and I certainly believe it to be so, the best play are the transports. There is a reason why UNP is up so much, and staying lofty. But after the rails, the best play is NAT. The growth is not yet reflected in the stock price. That could be due to the general increase in number of vessels coming on line, but that should not alter their business model much. (management's letter)

I typically look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to get a feel of what is happening with global trade. The number of ships that have been coming on line over the last two years may have capped the index until there is a equilibrium achieved with the increased capacity. None the less, the suezmax tanker market appears stable, as per management, but so does the BDI supporting the claim.

And since NAT redistributes their increased revenue to shareholders, that above continues to add to the thesis for NAT as a member to the 'timeless portfolio'.


  1. Have you looked at SSW chart?

    If you have a moment, I would appreciate your thoughts!!


  2. SSW looks interesting. There appears to be a nice (triangular) consolidation going on with it, which would indicates a nice move in either direction. (judging by the macro forces I would wager that move should be up, but I do not know the management or company as well as I know NAT.)

    if you trust the company and management of SSW, and there is no specific negative issue with either, SSW looks good for a pop here. It breaches 10.30, it breaks from the consolidation and potentially starts a leg up.