I made a mistake. During this recent down turn I neglected to take into account all the patterns, and that neglect caused a false premise in my analysis of the market.
I just realized it today, hence my acknowledgement of it. Basically my market premise to protect was predicated on overbought conditions, crazy movements of the market (during the early Feb decline), sizable decline in the Vix, weakness in some individual names (which gained strength causing the market to fair much better than expected) and the long-term pattern of the SP500 daily chart.
What I failed to do, was assess the above with the pattern of the weekly SP500. If I did that, I probably would have removed my protection, (until this week). I assessed the weekly charts of the individual names that were weak, and the wkly charts seemed to have indicated a floor, but without the wkly SP500 chart, the more cautious approach was taken.
The weekly SP500 clearly shows the wkly 28 and 32SMA acting as support.
I highlight the most recognizable pattern.
So with that, I swallow my mistake. With that said, today was an interesting day, and a clear 'protect' signal was also given.
The Vix was up while the SP500 was up, not to mention the market is at a double top. So I did not get rid of my protection.
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