After much thought over the weekend, I have to prepare to transfer my current accounts into "the fund". At the moment, I can not trade the way I normally would, and can not hold any mid/longer-term positions. My views and positions have not changed, but I just wanted to be transparent.
Usually, I trade in stages, when I buy at a specific level, with a lower probability of a decline, and if a decline is seen enter heavy on the lower-end support, where the probability of decline is very minimal. Even though I was already in a heavy cash position, at the moment I can not execute this type of trading. (40point swings in AAPL, when playing options can take a toll on a portfolio.)
To maintain a certain level of powder, to be transferred into the fund, and have a certain cash position for my expenses over the next few months, I need to be very conservative at the moment. I will only be entering positions at, what I think, the very low end areas, and hold those positions for days (if that). Until the fund starts trading.
(I am obviously taking hits, with the current trades I had on for AAPL, QCOM, BGCP and AXPW.ob. Not happy about it, but I simply do not have the luxury of time at the moment. Adds to the frustration when we just saw really good US construction and manufacturing data.)
A the moment I will only trade few positions, for a day or two or even intra-day, here are some:
AAPL - I stand by the linked thesis in AAPL. Keep in mind the ultimate very-low end support should be when Jobs left as CEO, the 360 area. This also corroborates with single digit multiples, but I doubt it will get that low. I will play the trade at the 90sma on the daily chart, near 367. (Regardless of my opinion that it is disturbingly inexpensive at current levels.)
QCOM - Will trade QCOM, heavily, for the pop near the 46 level, based on the chart I posted last week.
GOOG - In the previous recession, GOOG traded with a trailing PE of 16. As this quarter has ended, and factoring in the estimates, GOOG will have a trailing PE of 16 at the 490 area. This is also a technical support.
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