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Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Market Thought... EU

Here is a good interview that sums up the negative views of the hedgies: Its daunting, no doubt about it, especially with the numbers Kyle Bass was throwing out there. I agree that Europe is a mess, and I fully understand organized re-structuring or defaults will take place in Europe. (I disagree with the polling thesis, the amended EFSF vote contradicts it.) But what I truly care about is that credit does not freeze up. The market is is already pricing in a total and complete mess in the EU. I do believe something is coming out of Europe, what exactly, I do not know. (But I think it may cause the banks to pop.) I found the set up of the DAX interesting today.

 Its looks like a rounded bottom.  Three time it has attempted to breached its lows, and three times it has capitulated. As of Sept 12th (operation twist day, coincidentally) it has been forming a base.  Their markets seem calmer then ours, or at least know something the US equity markets do not.


  1. Just wanted a clarification--you "disagree with the poling thesis"; is that just a misspelling of "polling" (had he mentioned some poll?)

    Thanks in advance for your response; I value your comments and so would hope to understand them.

  2. He mentions a commissioned poll for the German people and their opinion of the situation. The poll gave him doubts of Germany's willingness to step up for the EU, but the degree to which the Amended EFSF was passed contradicts his doubts.

    error fixed :)