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Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Market Thought... sanity

Listening to CNBC from 8-11:40, literally, all they talked about was Headlines or 'sources' from the EU.  That drove a lot of the market trading. Then Joe Terranova came on, and said it was an opportunity.  I signed, thinking, finally some sanity enters the talking heads.

There is nothing more frustrating to listen to a journalist give his/her unqualified commentary. Its unnecessary, but this is coming from an individual that hates 'commentary' shows. (I am a boring guy,  just give me the raw data.) But TV is about extremes, whether it be fear or exuberance, people got to keep watching.

The market is seeing a hiccup.  IMO, this is all a part of the bottoming process, and does not change anything we do not already know.

We know the EU is slow to act. We know the EU banks are fucked and need more capital. We know the global economy is slowing. We know the US data is not great. We know there will not be a credit freeze.

The market has factored these things in, and is now letting company performance drive action.  With Q3 earnings coming in, a trailing eps should be around 88. With a multiple of 14, the SP500 target is 1245. So the market is near a reduced multiple valuation.

Regardless of the minute-to-minute distractions, the SP500 will have an EPS of $92-95 for the end of the year. A reduced multiple of 14 gives a SP500 price target of 1288-1330 by year end.

In the mean time, find the stocks trading inefficiently, and wait for the market to catch up to you.

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