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Thursday, October 13, 2011

trading thoughts... AAPL, QCOM, IBM, GOOG, DD, DIS, ETN

(Below are trades I would actually do, but can't, so I am venting them below.)

AAPL - The only new info since my last post on AAPL (explaining the potential for the 420 level to be achieved) is the market's reaction to GOOG's report.  AAPL will most likely see  420 before it reports. (I would not add to my AAPL because of Google's report, but I now would not sell my light position at 420. I would let it ride into earnings, and sell into potential strength from their earnings.)

QCOM - I stand by my recent assessment of QCOM. I would not alter the trading highlighted in that post.

IBM - My opinion has not changed.

GOOG - Anyone playing this one into earnings, congrats!! Even if I had the ability to trade, I would not have been so bold this go around. The Motorola and IBM patent acquisitions, and potential Oracle settlement gave me doubts the headline number would be off. I thought GOOG would take a sizable charge this quarter for one of these things, but I did not see these costs in their report.  Regardless, it was a nice report and the stock is acting accordingly.  At 600, GOOG is approaching a very hard resistance.

Also, given the macro-environment, I do not know if the market will allow for a high degree of multiple expansion right now.  If GOOG can trade with a trailing PE of 19, it can trade in the low 600 area. Basically basing at its resistance.  If the market allows for multiple expansion, then it can break out.  This scenario is not something that appeals to me at the moment, so I would not trade GOOG on the hopes of multiple expansion.  (I would rather play GOOG if it sees 560-570 level, then play the breakout going later on in this quarter.  As the end of the year comes closer, then I expect Google to break out.)

DD - This stock usually trades with a trailing PE of 14. Its currently near 12. If recession is taken off the table, and factoring next quarters results, DD can easily test the 200SMA or 48. I would  enter a position near 42, and another at 40.  (I would play the common as there is a nice dividend that can be a cushion at current levels.)

DIS - Looks to have formed a nice bottom, and is basing. I would start entering 5 Jan 2012 32 strike calls at 32, and add to the position at 31. Would look to sell in stages from 34 and then at 37.

ETN - Looks to be forming a bottom. I would play the common (for the dividend cushion), starting an initial entry near mid 39, and add a second near 38. I would look to sell around 44-45.

(After entering these positions, I would be more inclined to maintain a light SPY put protection.)

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