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Friday, October 28, 2011

Market Thought... wow

The EU leaders heard the thunder. They gave the market what it needed, and all those waiting to be disappointed, were caught with there pants down.

The market continued its rally much more than I thought it would. I did not think the market would break its 200SMA today, but looks like the bears (and there are a ton, a ton, of them) crapped their pants. (I took on protection in the AM, but as the market recovered from its intra-day slide down, I covered it for a wash trade.)

The market has re-established its March 2009 trend.

IMO, the last two months of actions should not have taken place below the 360SMA.  The bullshit Standard and Poor's downgrade facilitated the market weakness misconception, and the SP500 is now re-establishing its rally trend. (This weakness allowed for bullshit calls on China and the US economy, exaggerating market weakness.)

Now the market is in a positive feed back loop position. The super negative hedgie boys can not ignore the rise of the 10yr, nor its bullish implications. (The 10yr yield is a statement to US GDP, so a bullish trend on the yield is bullish for the US economy.)

The strength of the banks, industrials and basic materials suggests the market will be trading with a trailing PE range of 14-15.  With a trailing eps of $88 in Q3, I would not be surprised to see the SP500 see 1320.

The market is re-establishing the rally, and we have room to run when looking at a year ending SP500 EPS of $95.  Because of this, I will now be using the SP500/Vix overlay as my guide to measure complacency, and when to short the market.  The VIX has a way to go.  Multiple expansion will happen in quality names like DD, ETN, AXP, AAPL etc.

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