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Friday, September 30, 2011


Below is a few activities and some thoughts on the following stocks/positions:

FXE - I road the decline from 138 to current levels. With more certainty coming out of the EU regarding what they will do, there maybe a 'buy-the-news'.  I, like everyone else, knows the Euro will decline. (Its mathematical economics.) I am just taking profits. If it rallies, I will look to re-purchase 135 Dec puts if it sees 135 or high 134.

AAPL - Below 400 is too inexpensive for this name, considering the market the iPad and iPhone is seeing. I added today, and will look to add near the high 370s.

POT - If anyone just heard Buffett today on CNBC, his businesses do not indicate recession. But the crop reports were bearish because of better yields, and "rationing" by consumers. This could lead to a lower than expected Potash pricing, and with Mosaic's increased expenses, I am sure that is the pressure on POT.  But, POT usually trades with a higher trailing PE. There has been a severe multiple compression giving POT a trailing PE of 16, and single digits forward PE. The stock is pricing in a negative eps rate, but I think the discount is over done. It also retraced its "buyout" offer. It may take a quarter or two to wash out the assumed negativity on the potash market.

QCOM - If I traded this one intelligently (selling it at 52-53), I would be buying it back right here. (But I did think it was going to break from the negative trend and test its highs as AAPL and IBM did.)  Since I already own it due to its current product position, I am resisting additional entries. However, if the blind selling brings this to the 47 level, I will reposition my current options to the 47.50, and with the new options double the call numbers to the position.

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