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Sunday, September 18, 2011


Here is an update on the price targets of the few stocks I am looking to trade on a potential decline:

AAPL - While I will always maintain a position until 420-430 is seen, I will look to enter a trading position on a decline. Since I think the bullish uptrend has already started, any decline should be short lived and shallow.  I am looking for the 390 area, but probably near the 5SMA.

AXP - Hopefully it consolidates near 47ish.

IBM -   Looks to wanna test 175. But if it does not, it may move to 168. If it moves to 175 first, then the support become the 172 level.

BAC - Its hovering on its SMA. Still looking for it to test mid 6, then will enter.

GOOG - With the tech up move, Google should never see 400 again. (It never should have to begin with.) I am looking for the 530 area.

POT - I did not like the relative weakness the past two days. But on Friday, there seemed to be positive info regarding potash (the commodity) pricing. K+S priced the commodity at 375/tonne, and indicating strong demand. I am not as well read on this sector as I am in relation to QCOM, IBM, GOOG or AAPL, and do not know if 375 is below or above industry expectations for current pricing. If I had to make a decision purely based on the technicals, I would wait until the 53 area. (But the expression of strong demand may stem the decline, and allow for the 200SMA to be a spring board.)

QCOM - I am expecting a break out, and have positioned myself for such a move.  Although there was hints of stress on Friday.  If we do not get a break out, QCOM may chill near the 52 area.

SU - I am letting oil (the WTI) tell me when to enter SU. Right now the WTI looks uncertain. It can go to the 92 level or the 82 level. If it sees 82, SU may decline in sympathy, and I will enter Jan options around the price it is trading.

Also, just a note on BGCP and ITRI. I have not sold either of these names, since the market's massive declines. The reasons: BGCP yields almost 11%, so I do not mind waiting. Although it may see resistance near 7.50 area, and may sell the position I added during this market decline. (But will still be in the name.)

As for ITRI, the stock is at center stage to a massive trend a few months away, and trading at the trailing PE of 13.  There is just no way I am selling this stock at such valuations. If I have to wait a year, so be it. Because even if it trades at a trailing PE of 15 in a year, with an EPS of 4.00, ITRI is a $60 stock. (And when the growth becomes evident, the multiple will be higher than 15.)

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