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Friday, September 2, 2011

Market Thought... give us leadership EU

I set up my dual-screen computer specifically designated to trade, and increase my day-trading capabilities. (I am in the process of potentially shifting accounts to online brokers more designated for my level of activity. Although the traditional online brokers are good and have gotten better over the years, there are limitations.)

I am looking across the sea of real-time info, and its simply does not look good.  The intra-day trends are shit, and a bunch of names I follow have been capped with extremely limited upside through out the day.

Its just a crappy day.  In the morning I covered the protection that I had on when the SP500 was testing 1220, but I took on a light protection again around 1230 as I noticed the SPY could not escape its 28SMA via the 5min intra-day.  And the market has not been looking pretty since.

From a different perspective, the SP500 seems to want to break down from the 14 SMA.

There maybe support around 1150, thanks to the weekly 200SMA, but I view that as weak.

From a fundamental perspective anything below 1220 the market is pricing in a global GDP slowdown. I have seen some very unrealistic earnings contractions that suggest the market goes lower, but there are also a high level of secular growth trends that make blind shorting difficult to do. (Speculators can drive down AAPL all they want, but once they announce earnings or a China Mobile deal w/a $70B revenue growth potential, the speculators will get crushed. Like wise with IBM.)

IMO, the move in the Franc and GLD suggest the big-boys are not worried about a global slow down, despite the constant chatter on CNBC, but rather the potential EU induced credit crunch. (And now that I listen to it more, I hear the bs that is continuously talked about.)  The EU induced credit crunch is a very real concern, however the willingness to consolidate banks and infuse capital, while maintaining a level of austerity should be of real concern for the hedgies raiding the EU financial cracks.

A wave of EU bank consolidations, along with capital infusions, will allow the banks to re-structure debt at a meaningful level.  We just need to see the EU implement a plan that allows for this.  But since there is no plan, we have uncertainty. And with uncertainty, markets go down.

Updated: Also of note, Finisar was a canary-in-the-coal-mine with respect to the market since June, especially for technology. It had a good report and guidance today. It maybe an indicator this go-around as well.

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