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Thursday, September 8, 2011

Market Thought... hmmm

Uncertainty is predicated on the fear of the unknown. August saw too much uncertainty, that is best summed up in my 'listen to the thunder' post.

Since then, a thesis has emerged that should bring stability to the markets (credit and equity), which requires:

1. amended EFSF to be used to capitalize large EU banks

2. bank consolidation across Europe

Going through my 40 or so individual stock charts of key companies (that are leaders in their field) suggests further upside. However, with all this market craziness, technical subtitles in the face of credit-freeze fear mean nothing. (In a stable market technical subtitles can be very profitable.)

IMO, today's move was largely due to the certainty over the amended EFSF.  If EU policy makers do not do stupid and drastic things, I am wondering if the above requirements will be factored into the markets sooner-rather-than-later, ease-up on the crazy downward volatility and allow the markets to move on company specific and macro-economic data.

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