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Thursday, September 15, 2011

Market Thought... euro

The ECB announced a swap deal with a collaborative effort from multiple central banks. The market effect was obviously positive, and caused the Euro to spike.  This is good news as it allows dollar funding, and allows for the Euro to take a needed bounce from its very oversold position.

With the bounce, I repositioned by FXE put protection to the 138 Dec puts. (Despite this move, when Greece restructures, the Euro will get devalued. But what is going on with the Euro is in lock step with the market psychology of removing the discount of a credit freeze.

With the market rise, I sold some IBM, but still maintain a long position.  I see some signs of intra-day stress, but it is far to subtle to make any conclusions right now.  Right now the probability favors we test 1220, or the 320 SMA.

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