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Friday, September 9, 2011

Rumors of Greek default this weekend

Apparently markets have broke with rumors of Greek default this weekend. From my previous Market Thought posts, a default can't happen unless there is a mechanism to back-stop the banks. That is the amended EFSF or after the default the most strained EU banks will be forced to consolidate.

I was expecting the default to take place early next month, not before the EFSF vote.

With out a a facility to prevent a credit freeze markets will collapse. With a facility to protect against a credit freeze markets will rally.

The market could see a shock to the 1160 level, then rally with the right action. Are charts be damned if a credit freeze is allowed.

(I am testing out the new blogger app to write this. Not by a computer. This post was all through the iPhone. So far so good.)

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