The problem is, no one is stating their caveats. Reading such craziness is taxing, and can destroy one's discipline if reasons behind their estimates are ignored. All projections depend on the 'if/then' scenario that play out. (If Europe does not collapse, equity markets will not collapse. If Europe collapses, then global equity markets collapse.) Its that simple, but analyst state things with such conviction that you have to have a strong basis to your own thesis. On the same breath, we must identify the correct indicator(s) that would suggest the low probability views come to fruition, so a change in position can take place. (Hence my 're-evaluation' post, and my consistent Market Thought posts.)
Now, all I can do is act on my thesis, until I see the breakdown in the 10year treasury yield. So today I added to GS (options), C (common) and my limit order for NAT (common) got executed end-of-day. If the market is weak from here, AAPL may see between 240-245 and IBM may see 122-123, and I will be a buyer of both. Here is why, I think the charts speak for themselves:
It seems everything is tied to the Eurozone right now. When things finally stabilize, it seems to me gold could correct substantially. Does analysis of its chart suggest anything to you?
ReplyDeleteThanks as always and best wishes to you.
Gold is approaching a double top while being overbought. So it looks a a bit stressed here. (i'll post some charts later pointing out what I see)
ReplyDeletealso heard chatter that too many players are involved in Gold, so the push upward to break the current resistence maybe hard to comeby.
Something to keep in mind though, if the bears want to see their thesis play out, no investment will be a good one. Everything goes down until stability is re-established from their doomsday scenario. (I personally have more faith in the humanity of our leaders)