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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Market Thought... big boys, grow-a-pair

Too many people 'think' they understand the technicals, but are using the wrong support/resistance points.

Here is some sanity. The ultimate level of support for the SP500 is the daily 320 SMA. period. I do not care what other horizontal, triangular or whatever shape/directional support anyone whats to tout, the 320 SMA on the daily SP500 is THE support.

The support many are touting right now is coming from the 62 SMA in the weekly and the 14 and 200 SMAs via the monthly. Hence the importance of the current market level. (But it is being misinterpreted as horizontal support or some other support.)

Here is the interesting part. If the SP500 breaks from this current intra-week/month support, we will see the daily 320SMA. But this is where I feel the computers will be on the long side.

As we breach, any hedgie left in the market (which are few) most likely will get stopped out. (Or at least the ones that feel the 1040-1050 level is important.) But computers do not give a shit. Computers, or the algorithmic trading platforms, follow patterns. While the big-boys are curled in a fetal position, the computers will be buying, and give us a capitulation.

If we breach, I believe it will only be for the intra-week/month, and resume the SP500 weekly/monthly low end support.

Looking at the correct resistance point, today's reversal was no surprise. It bounced off its 14SMA down trend resistance.

FYI... AAPL reached my entry point, via the technicals and I added. If/when we get this capitation I will add to IBM, AAPL and maybe even BP.

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