Before I begin... Happy Father's Day.
I noticed a subtle set-up that may hint toward an indication of concern. The SP 500 is up nicely since the 1040/1050 level, but when it is correlated against the 10yr treasury yield I get the feeling the yield should be higher.
I will not post charts because the set-up is particularly subtle, and easily arguable. It may very well lead to nothing, but the seed of doubt regarding strong GDP growth comes to mind.
I am keeping a close eye on the 10yr treasury yield as a break of the 3.0-3.1 level will indicate deflation, and a weak equity market.
The markets are overbought, and a declining market usually correlates to a declining treasury yield. This subtle set-up may lead to the 'deflationary' support level being tested, hence my concern.
If the yield rallies from here or off the 3.1-3.2 level, upon a market pull back, this concern will mitigate.
This post is just a heads up, as the set-up may lead to a change in market thesis.