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Thursday, June 17, 2010

Market Thought... trading dynamic

To say the market should be going much lower, then state AAPL and other big tech companies (including INTC, IBM, ect.) are inexpensive is a contradiction.

There is always a potential reason as to why the markets move the way they do. The reality of trading is that markets, in the short-term, are inefficient, especially when uncertainty presents itself. But longer-term, tend to be efficient. The trick is to take advantage of the short-term inefficiency to benefit from the long-term efficiency.

Whatever the reasons the gurus want to give as to why the tape acted the way it did, their explanation is irrelevant. Markets have always (ALWAYS) traded via patterns (ie charts) and fundamentals.

Charts can peek into the mob mentality of the market. Chart not only give an investor trading reference points, it allows an investor to predict fears. (While not easy to do, tt gives a human investor a benefit over the algorithm trading machine. Machines follow patterns, there is no uncertain element within their program. Human traders are trickier in that they do have an uncertain element, emotion.)

Fundamentals are ultimately what drives long-term efficiency. Valuations do matter, and valuations are currently below there norm.

So when someone is asking why didn't the market collapse today, I say 'why should it collapse?'

1. Perceived negativity in the Euro zone is declining. The fact that the euro is up, imo is nothing more than seasonality. (I have been going to Europe for more than 15years in the summer time, and through all those years I can say with utter certainty the country's currency at the time always appreciated during the summer months, at least when I was there. It would piss me off to exchange at a higher rate then the week before, so much so that its etched in my memory :).

2. Valuations are very inexpensive, even when considering earnings estimate cuts.

Regardless, the SP500 can retest the 1050 level, as we are in uncertain territory here. But when clarity develops, the big-boys will grow a pair, volumes will increase and legitimize the market moves. Until then, day-traders, the high frequency algorithms and then few bottom feeders control the tape.

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