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Monday, June 14, 2010

Thoughts on BP

Since everyone and their mother gave their input onto this name, I might as well do so too :). To imagine the worst case scenario, just use your imagination. But certain facts can not be ignored:

1. With a suspended dividend, BP's cash flow alone can handle potential clean up.

2. BP has a book value of mid 33, as per YahooFinance. (In an era of expensive oil, the current level is awfully enticing. Book value depicted as the yellow line in the daily chart below.)

3. One of the best, and level-headed, value investor of our era (Whiteny Tilson) is buying it.

4. The charts look to have begun a stabilization, although it does not look pretty.

29 appears to be a good area, or at least anywhere below the book value (yellow line).
It maybe range bound for sometime between the 29-37 range until more certainty develops around the issue.
Right now there are a lot of possible outcomes, but the least probable is BP going under where shareholders lose total value.
I sold some portfolio (option) positions in this rally, increasing my cash and reducing my leverage, that will allow me to play BP. (Had too much levered risk in the portfolio via various call options so I resisted purchasing BP at 29 last week. Discipline's a bitch.) Will look to actively trade the common around BP's book value for now, purchasing around 29 and selling it after a reasonable increase.
(For the risk adverse trader, a stop around low 28 would not be a bad idea. But I do not use stops.)

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