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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

anatomy of the AAPL rally

Apple rally is intense. Its about 100 points greater than I expected, thus far. Funny thing, after they reported their July 2011 quarter, I was expecting this very thing!  After a blowout quarter, Apple pulled back, then got swept with the rest of the market as Europe shocked the market.  Obviously I was humbled in July or 6 months too soon :)

The current rally started about a week after Apple stated their Jan quarter. Apple went from 450 to 525 (a 16% move) before a 5-6% pullback.  Then it went from 490 to 548 (a 11-12% move) before a 6% pullback. Now, the current move started at 516 and its saw a 15% move (with 594 being the high).

Should a 6% pullback be expected?

I hope so.

IMO, the only real trading concern, at this point, is the headline risk of Apple being re-adjusted in the Qs because of its size.  Near, or below 520, Apple was 17% of the Qs. Since then, Apple has risen 14% and the Qs have risen around 4.5%.  Apple has out grown the Qs by 10%.  (The index threshold is around 20%, I think.)

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